Locked scoring the Breeders’ Futurity in October at Keeneland. (Courtney Snow/Past The Wire)
New Blood vs. “Old Guard”
By Laura Pugh
Spectacular Bid, Tim Tam, Kauai King, Bet Twice, Forty Niner, Proud Truth, Thunder Gulch. This is a list of decorated champions of the Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park this Saturday.
First run in 1945, the Fountain of Youth has been producing Kentucky Derby contenders and Spring Classic champions for decades.
It was Calumet Farm’s Tim Tam who first put the race on the map by completing the Fountain of Youth/Kentucky Derby double in 1958, a feat subsequently replicated by Kauai King (1966), Spectacular Bid (1979), Thunder Gulch (1995), and Orb (2013).1
The Fountain of Youth, currently contested over 1 1⁄16 miles, has a reputation for producing some of the top sophomore talent each year, as well as generating success in the subsequent Kentucky Derby.
This year seems like it will be no different, despite drawing a mix of established class and new shooters.
1. Speak Easy: The Pletcher trainee could opt for an easier spot, according to his trainer. An allowance race on the Friday before the Fountain of Youth, before targeting the Florida Derby. That decision should came late this week, however if they choose to run here it makes for an intriguing entry, as his maiden victory is not an easy race to figure out.
On the Pegasus undercard, Speak Easy and fellow Fountain of Youth entrant Victory Avenue duked it out in a swift 7f maiden, which was recorded in 1:21.96. The final time was easily the fastest of anything else on the card. However, there is a debate that the surface slowed significantly through the day. So, the question is, do you believe the fast time and impressive figures are legit, or do you think they look better than they really are?
2. Le Dom Bro: On paper, he has only been placed worse than second twice. One “non-effort” came when he was out broken in the Remsen Stakes and forced to sit much farther back than he prefers. His other starts have been sprints, and while he has plenty of early speed, he doesn’t have the kick to out-stay his opponents to the wire. It looks as though his connections are hoping that a swap to two turn routes will allow him to slow down and conserve his energy more. But with Speak Easy, Dornoch, and Victory Avenue also looking for the lead, I don’t see that scenario happening for Le Dom Bro.
3. Victory Avenue: The son of Arrogate finished second to Speak Easy in that Jan. 27th maiden. If you think Speak Easy is the real deal, then you have to think Victory Avenue isn’t far off of him. There is no doubting the speed of this colt, and if Speak Easy does opt for the Friday allowance, that leaves Victory Avenue and Le Dom Bro as the inside speed. Being that this race is two turns, I think we could see a slightly slower pace than what was run in that maiden, but it still looks like it will be contested.
I do like that Victory Avenue is just outside of Speak Easy this time around, which will give him the option to sit off Speak Easy or Le Dom Bro, if he is inclined to do so. If he does, he might be able to turn the tables this time around.
4. Real Macho: This son of Mucho Macho Man either wins or finishes out of the super. If you like trends, then you’ll think a winning effort is in the cards this time out. The good news is that he runs best when stalking the pace, and he should get the perfect opportunity to do that. The bad news is, judging from his PP’s he’s a one turn mile specialist, and his only attempt at two turns resulted in a fifth-place finish beaten nearly 10 lengths.
5. Dornoch: Good Magic had a Derby winner last year with Mage, and now he has one of the leading contenders coming into 2024 with Dornoch. This colt runs well when stalking, but in his four starts, thus far, he’s only won when securing the early lead. Looking at his speed compared to the first three in the gate, two strike me as having more early speed, which would force him to stalk early on. Could he win if that happens? Sure, he can. Horses improve from two to three all the time, in fact we just saw some mental maturity from Timberlake in last Saturday’s Rebel Stakes. However, we also don’t see top juveniles take that step forward just as often, which means Dornoch could be vulnerable here.
6. Merit: Broke his impressively maiden by over 10 lengths, but then disappointed with a lackluster third when beaten by Real Macho in early February. In his first start, he played the role of stalker, but in his allowance defeat he played the role of presser before fading. Given that his pedigree leans to sprinting, I’m thinking that he may just not have enjoyed the extra furlong trip. I wouldn’t trust him to win at this distance versus this level of class.
7. Frankie’s Empire: The son of Classic Empire has a pedigree that suggests a stretch in distance would be successful, despite having success in sprints. He took a while to gain some consistency as a juvenile, but he’s now strung together two wins in a row. Unlike many in this race, Frankie’s Empire doesn’t need the lead, although a slower pace could put him in a closer spot. His closing splits aren’t stellar; however, he might have a better kick when not trying to keep up with early splits that are sub 23/46 seconds.
8. Locked: The horse most likely to benefit from a lively pace is Locked. The second of two Pletcher entrants in this spot, assuming Speak Easy stays, should sit a good trip in the middle of the field. Gulfstream isn’t known for being kind to horses that close, however Locked has one of the most potent closing kicks of his crop and can sit in a stalking position, if need be, while still delivering the same kick.
The son of Gun Runner has never been worse than third, and never run a bad race. In the Juvenile he did get caught too far back but was only beaten a half-length for second place. His individual closing splits for the Breeders’ Futurity of 24.71 and 26.62 should also turn heads, especially since that was only his third start. In his maiden breaking performance, after pressing the pace, he delivered a 23.94 final quarter. Should he make the jump in form as a 3-year-old, he’ll be tough to beat.
9. Dancing Groom: The son of Vino Rosso hasn’t won, nor come close to winning in his last three starts. Given his running style, he probably will sit near the rear of the field, and quite honestly, I don’t see him ever getting involved. Could his connections try to switch things up by trying a new style, sure. But in this spot, where there is already plenty of speed, I don’t see that helping.
Race Summary: There is a lot of speed here, and that won’t change if Speak Easy defects. Victory Avenue, Le Dom Bro, and Dornoch will all want the be on or near the lead, which could lead to a very hotly disputed pace.
Given this set up, I like the trips that Locked, and Frankie’s Empire look to get. Dornoch has never run badly, even when he doesn’t get the lead, and he should be able to track the pace while running in the clear. I also liked the look of his last work, where he pulled away from his workmate by almost five lengths while under a hold going 4f in 47.90 at Palm Meadows. While I do think not getting the lead will make him more vulnerable, there is no denying that he is coming into the race on tilt.
Selections: Locked, Victory Avenue, Dornoch, Frankie’s Empire
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1: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/races/2024/03-2024/fountain-of-youth/
