Who Can Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? Power Rankings & Analysis from Big Race Jim

April 13, 2025

Happy Sunday! Big Race Jim is back with another episode of Past The Wire TV’s Sunday Morning Coffee, brought to you by Sure Bet Coffee and AmWager.

This week, we shift gears from Derby prep recaps to a deeper dive into the 2025 Kentucky Derby field now that it’s nearly finalized. With no major prep races on tap, Jim shares his personal Top 6 Derby win contenders, discusses his simple but effective power rating system (no proprietary math, just smart use of Brisnet figures), and breaks down the strengths and weaknesses of each contender — including Journalism, Rodriguez, River Thames, Tappan Street, Sovereignty, and his wildcard, Coal Battle.

Plus:

Why Baeza could be a major threat if he draws in

The pace dynamics influenced by international runners

Why historical Derby trends don’t always hold up (remember dosage and the Curse of Apollo?)

A preview of what’s coming in the Past the Wire Annual Kentucky Derby Seminar

Get a fresh brew, settle in, and enjoy this candid breakdown as we inch closer to the first Saturday in May!

@jonathanstettin #2 Ettalusive ran big to finish 2nd in Gulf Stream 3rd 16-1

Rusty Williams @RWilliams1010 View testimonials

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