Mo Plex scoring the 2025 Ohio Derby. (JJ Zamaiko Photography)
Jim Gazzale
The last time I set foot at Thistledown, George W. Bush was in the White House, flip phones were peak technology, and I somehow parlayed a gut feeling and $2 into a $65 winner that I am absolutely certain was a sign from the racing gods that I had a gift.
I never went back. Why tempt fate?
Saturday, The App, as it’s affectionately called around the Past the Wire group text, takes us back to the Northeast Ohio oval and based on our recent success, we’re sure to run into at least a winner or two.
This is vibe coding at its finest, people. I describe what I want. The model delivers. I argue with the computer about pace scenarios like old friends. It wins enough of the time to keep it interesting.
What follows is the model’s full read on Saturday’s Thistledown card, race by race, from the maiden sprints all the way to the Grade 3 Ohio Derby in Race 12. The app chewed through past performances, fractional splits, trainer patterns, jockey combinations, pace projections, and our proprietary Sustained Speed Profiles for every race, then handed me a report. I translated it into English so you can cash tickets.
I can’t believe I’m about to write 4,000 words about Thistledown.
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 5.5 Furlongs
The app opens the card with a three-horse spread in this maiden sprint. Big Daddy Hank is the top selection following three consecutive second-place finishes by a combined 5.5 lengths, with speed figures trending in the right direction. He keeps knocking on the door and this looks like the right spot to break through.
Lucy’s First Song is the secondary play, coming off a pace-compromised effort where her losing margin dropped from 22 lengths to under three. That’s the kind of trajectory the model loves.
At the price, Dublin Time deserves a look for multi-race sequences. Trainer Gorham has a 29 percent win rate at this meet, and the first-out number of 12 percent is worth noting.
Race 2: $7,500 Claiming, 5.5 Furlongs
This is one of the clearest pace stories on the card. Four confirmed speed horses, Ol’ Nelson, P J’s Boy, Balki Bartokomous, and Drilin’ for Gems, are all going to want to be near the front, and the model is projecting a brutal opening quarter and a suicidal half-mile. When four horses go to war that early in a six-furlong sprint, the finish typically belongs to whoever was sitting fourth or fifth saving energy.
Balki Bartokomous is the top selection. He’s still kicking around in claiming company as he comes into this race off a first-place finish. The soundness profile is textbook: consistent race spacing all year, zero equipment changes, and a winning partnership with jockey Bracho, who was aboard for last out’s victory.
The danger is Double Agent, who the app loves in the pace scenario. His pressing and stalking style sets up perfectly when four horses are burning each other up through a brutal half-mile. Trainer Hamm and jockey Bowen click at 23 percent at this meet. If you can get him at 3-1 or better, there’s genuine value in the model’s projection.
Eliminate P J’s Boy (returning in two weeks), Drilin’ for Gems (back-to-back non-competitive efforts), and Ol’ Nelson (speed figures collapsed from his January peak to essentially nothing in recent starts).
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs
Another pace-loaded maiden sprint, and the model found what it believes is the best value play of the early card.
Three horses, Dollar Dance, Electric Eden, and Golden Haul, all want to be on or near the lead. The model projects a sharp opening quarter and a genuinely contested half-mile. That sets the table perfectly for whoever is sitting fourth or fifth with fresh legs.
Golden Is Thy Fame is the top selection, and the case centers on one of the most reliable patterns in maiden racing: the second-start improvement angle. In her debut three weeks ago, she pressed to the front at the half-mile call — actually led briefly — before predictable greenness set in and she faded to seventh beaten nearly 21 lengths. That margin looks terrible on paper. In context, it tells a completely different story. She competed through the pace, engaged in the race, and ran out of gas the way first-time starters do when they don’t know how to rate.
The fitness is sharpened now. The experience is there. And trainer Jennifer Tooley wins at 40 percent at this Thistledown meet with a 33 percent maiden special weight strike rate. The Bracho and Tooley combination has clicked at 50 percent together. The morning line of 15-1 against the model’s projected win probability is the largest positive edge the app found on the early card.
The public will likely pour money into Composition, the morning line favorite, who owns the best speed figure in the field from a Tampa route race. The class edge is real and Bowen rides for Hamm, which is always dangerous. But Composition’s best efforts have come at eight furlongs, and her sprint record is a scattered mix of poor finishes at shorter distances. Route-to-sprint cutbacks in maiden company are far harder than they look, and the model sees a massive underlay at short odds.
Race 4: Starter Optional Claiming, 5.5 Furlongs
The pace map in Race 4 is loaded with another familiar cast of characters who all want to be near the front. O Shaughesey, Mali Bali, Holiday Lights, and Twilight Vision all profile as early speed, and the model is projecting a contested opening quarter and a :46.1 half-mile. Four horses going head-to-head-to-head-to-head in a sprint creates a predictable finish: the horses who sat stalking positions and conserved energy come flying late while the speed horses look at each other.
Absolute Miracle is the top selection. She won at this exact track and distance on June 1st, coming from fourth early to rally five-wide and draw clear. Her sustained speed rating grades as elite. She accelerates in the final furlong while others are decelerating. That’s the critical skill in a race like this. The morning line of 5-2 is fair rather than overlay, but the projected win probability is highest in the field and the pace sets up perfectly.
The value play is Twilight Vision at 6-1, where the model sees a meaningful positive edge. She won at this track on May 26th by leading and controlling comfortable fractions. The concern is she’s shown vulnerability when engaged in genuine pace duels, and today’s setup guarantees pressure. But her tactical versatility gives jockey Rivera options, and Rivera wins at 23 percent at the meet.
Include Goshen in multi-race sequences. He’s cutting back from a mile race to six furlongs, and his numbers make the distance preference undeniable: 55 percent win rate sprinting against 14 percent routing. Three sprint wins at Thistledown last fall confirm the horse knows this track at this distance. Chavez rides at 21 percent at the meet.
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 5.5 Furlongs
The model identified a clean second-start angle in this maiden sprint.
Dr Inspired made his career debut on May 13th at this very track. He rated sixth through the opening quarter while matching the leaders’ pace, then took command at the half-mile and led through the six-furlong marker before tiring to finish second beaten two and a half lengths. That’s the blueprint. Showed tactical speed. Engaged in the race. Got tired from inexperience. Trainer Susan Anderson wins at 17 percent in maiden special weight races with a 2.43 ROI so she knows how to spot a horse. Jockey Bracho rides at 19 percent at the meet. The morning line of 2-1 is nearly fair value against the model’s win projection, but the profile is as clean as it gets and the pace sets up perfectly.
The value play is Lowells Legacy, who the model rates as having a meaningful positive edge over the morning line. Three placing finishes in his last five starts, with speed figures climbing steadily, and his most recent poor effort came with a bumped start and no rally, a clear excuse. He’s adding first-time Lasix today, which trainer Fletcher deploys strategically, and returns in 31 days, right in the trainer’s sweet spot. The one real concern is the mystery jockey Gonzalez, who has essentially no local record. That’s what keeps him as the value play rather than the top selection.
Dark N Dirty is 5-2 on the morning line based on a popular recent runner-up finish, but the model sees only 20 percent win probability, a meaningful underlay at those odds. She’s competitive and the experience is real, but she projects into the same early pace battle with Lowells Legacy from post 7, and her apprentice rider Greenidge is 0-for-9 at the meet.
Race 6: Allowance, 6 Furlongs
Race 6 is a six-furlong dirt sprint for fillies and mares, and the pace map is loaded. Miss Elecktra, Small Town Gossip, Jemel, and Kant Elope all want to be near the front, and the model is projecting a :22.4 opening quarter and a :46.2 half-mile. That’s a lot of early heat in a sprint, and it sets the table perfectly for whoever is sitting fourth or fifth saving ground.
Goosebumps is the top selection, and the key angle is the route-to-sprint cutback. She ran 8.5 furlongs at Beulah Park last out, and that extra distance in her legs translates to a stamina reserve that the pure sprinters in this field simply don’t have. The model’s sustained speed rating for this filly grades as elite.
The value play is Illuminate at 5-1. She’s coming off a win on May 16th where she altered course five-wide, burst clear, and won by 2.25 lengths. That’s exactly the kind of closing profile that benefits from a hot pace. Hamm trains her too, and his numbers with last-out winners and horses returning in the 31-60 day window are both strong. If the speed horses beat each other up as projected, Illuminate should be rolling late.
The horses to stay away from are Small Town Gossip and Kant Elope. Both have documented collapse patterns when pressed through honest fractions. Small Town Gossip faded to sixth beaten 13 lengths after pressing a fast half-mile three starts back in 2025. The pace will sort them out.
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 5.5 Furlongs
Race 7 is a 13-horse maiden special weight on the dirt, and the app has a clear top selection in a field full of conflicting angles.
The pace sets up hot. Happycastle, Rockaway Tiger, and Cantcatchlilfletch all want to be near the front, and the model is projecting a :22.4 opening quarter and a :46.3 half-mile. That kind of early heat creates a familiar pattern. The horses who were saving energy behind the mess start looking very good at the top of the stretch.
Moonlighter is the top selection, and the profile is about as clean as it gets for a horse who hasn’t won yet. Three second-place finishes by a combined 1.10 lengths. Speed figures climbing steadily from debut to his most recent effort with nearly a career-best last time out. Beaten margins shrinking from three-quarters of a length to a quarter length to a nose. That’s not a horse who can’t win. That’s a horse who keeps getting compromised. He ran three-wide twice, got bumped during a stretch rally, and still nearly got there each time. Today he adds Lasix for the first time, and trainer Gorham wins at 24 percent with first-time Lasix horses. The barn is running at 29 percent at this Thistledown meet. The pace sets up perfectly for a horse who tracks the speed and comes running late.
The two first-timers worth the attention are both from David Wolochuk, who wins at 44 percent at this Thistledown meet and 36 percent with horses making their debut. Thousand Cuts is the one with the most extensive preparation: five published works, a bullet workout, two gate works, and the best jockey-trainer combination in the race with Cedillo and Wolochuk clicking at 38 percent together. Killa Creed has the better pedigree fit for six furlongs on the dirt. Jimmy Creed sires precocious sprinters and the Wolochuk-Keiser combination hits 30 percent. The combined probability that one of these two fires approaches 50 percent based on trainer history alone.
The horse to avoid despite a popular morning line is Rockaway Tiger at 4-1. He showed early speed in his debut and the second-start angle is a real pattern in maiden racing. The problem is his trainer Cline wins at just 4 percent with second-start maidens with just one win from 26 tries. The model sees him as a significant underlay.
Race 8: George Lewis Memorial Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Race 8 is an eight-and-a-half-furlong dirt sprint for older horses, and the model sees a clear pace setup with a strong value play attached.
Three horses want to be near the front. Villian, Shadowy, and Ovid all profile as early speed, and the model is projecting a :22.2 opening quarter and a :45.4 half-mile. In a sprint, that kind of contested pace creates a predictable finish: the horses who were saving energy behind the mess tend to come flying late. We’ve mentioned this before.
Villian is the top selection. He’s the class of this field with 12 career wins from 27 starts. His recent speed figures are all in an elite range, and a trainer-jockey combination in Hamm and Ortiz that you want on your side. He’s a proven stakes performer at this exact distance and won this exact race last year. The model rates him as elite in both opening speed and sustained speed, meaning he’s not just fast, he can maintain it. The 9-5 morning line is a slight underlay against the model’s projection, but the class edge is real enough to accept.
The value play is Ronnis Second Wind at 8-1, and this is where the model is most enthusiastic. He won his last start on June 6th by three lengths under a hand ride, never even asked for maximum effort, and posted a career-best speed figure doing it. The model’s deceleration analysis grades his sustained speed rating as elite, with minimal velocity loss through the final furlong. His tactical stalking style sets up perfectly for a race where three horses are going to beat each other up on the front end. Trainer Cline wins 22 percent with horses coming off a win. The model sees a genuine positive edge of over five percent against the morning line.
Shadowy is the most logical third option for multi-race tickets despite legitimate concerns. He’s shown the same pace collapse pattern multiple times when pressed early, fading to ninth in stakes company in May after setting the pace. He’s on the ticket but not the win bet.
Race 9: Daniel Stearns Cleveland Gold Cup, 9 Furlongs
Race 9 is an 9-furlong dirt route for three-year-olds, and the field has a clear top tier with a legitimate pace story driving the setup.
Three horses want to be near the front. Water Into Wine, Mark My Words, and Rico Suave all project as early speed types, and the model is calling for a :24.1 opening quarter and a :47.4 half-mile. In a route race, that’s a modest pace that will keep things relatively honest throughout.
Mark My Words is the top selection. He’s won five of nine career starts, including three consecutive route victories, and his most recent effort at Beulah Park produced a career-best speed figure in a stakes race. He’s a proven tactical speed horse, meaning he can press the pace or sit just off it depending on the scenario, and trainer Gorham is winning at 29 percent at this Thistledown meet. The 2-1 morning line is a slight underlay against the model’s projection, but the quality of recent form and his sustained speed rating make him the logical top selection.
Water Into Wine is a legitimate alternative with an equally strong speed figure from that same Beulah Park stakes race, where he finished first after being bumped repeatedly in the stretch. The Always Dreaming pedigree suits the 9-furlong distance. The concern is a potential bounce with back-to-back monster efforts entering his third consecutive stakes start.
The horse the model is most intrigued by is R U Enticed, who won her last start at Beulah Park by 3.75 lengths after sitting ninth early and coming with a devastating late run. Her sustained speed rating grades as elite with closing segments consistently exceed opening velocity, which is a rare and powerful profile in route racing. If the early pace battle heats up the way the model projects, she’s sitting in the perfect trip. Include her in multi-race sequences.
Strategic Profile is the longshot overlay at an 11 percent win probability against a 12-1 morning line, the best positive edge in the field at over three percent. First start beyond eight furlongs could unlock additional stamina, and Hamm’s patience with this horse suggests confidence.
Race 10: Dr. T.F. Classen Memorial Stakes, 6 Furlongs
Race 10 is a six-furlong dirt sprint for fillies and mares, and the pace map is genuinely chaotic. I’m not trying to be dramatic. The model counts seven or eight horses with legitimate early speed tendencies, and it’s projecting a :22.2 opening quarter and a :45.3 half-mile. That’s a race that will be decided in the final furlong when the speed horses run out of gas.
Authoritarian Girl is the top selection with the highest win probability in the field. She’s won 9 of 14 lifetime starts, all 8 Thistledown victories at this exact track, and 7 of those wins came at six furlongs. She won last out at this condition on June 1st. The model grades her sustained speed rating as strong. She can maintain velocity when pressed, which is the critical skill in a race like this. Trainer Ibarra wins 38 percent with last-out winners, and jockey Gonzalez hits 28 percent at the meet with a 67 percent in-the-money rate. The 7-2 morning line is essentially fair value, but the consistency and class profile make her the logical top selection.
The value play is Salute the Kid at 30-1, and this is the biggest overlay on the card. The model projects a meaningful win probability with a fair odds line of roughly 5-1 against a morning line that implies barely 3 percent. The public is looking at a 9 percent trainer and an 8 percent jockey and dismissing her entirely. What they’re missing: she has six career wins, and every single one of them came at Thistledown at six furlongs. She won here on May 25th going exactly this distance. This is her third start off a layoff, which historically is when horses hit peak fitness. The inside post gives her a ground-saving trip. The positive edge is the largest the model found anywhere on the Saturday card.
The horse the model strongly fades is Parlay at 5-2. She’s cutting back from an eight-furlong route to a six-furlong sprint, and her record in pace duels is a documented disaster. She’s pressed early in routes repeatedly and collapsed each time. Today she’ll be forced into a multi-horse speed war at a distance that doesn’t suit her stamina profile. The model sees a massive negative edge against the morning line and she’s the worst underlay in the field.
Race 11: Lady Jacqueline Stakes, 9 Furlongs
Race 11 is a nine-furlong dirt stakes race, and the model sees a moderate pace setup that creates a clear value opportunity.
Peignoir is the top selection with the highest projected win probability in the field, and the model rates her at a fair odds line of 7-2 against a morning line of 6-1, creating an 8.2 percent positive edge. She’s a proven frontrunner who won a stakes race at Oaklawn on March 21st going wire-to-wire with a strong career-relevant speed figure. Her only subpar recent effort came at Churchill on May 15th, where she was forced into an extended speed duel through a contested half-mile. It’s a legitimate excuse in a race that doesn’t reflect her ability. Today the model projects a more moderate pace, which plays directly into her style. She’s won 5 of her 7 career starts at this distance range, the equipment stays the same, and trainer Brisset puts horses in the right spots. The public is underrating her.
The value play is Candlelight Hours at 10-1, where the model sees 15.5 percent win probability and a genuine positive edge. He’s a seven-year-old gelding with 12 wins from 30 starts at Thistledown, and he finished second here last month. Right on schedule for a sharp effort. His sustained speed rating grades as elite, with minimal deceleration and a closing kick that has swept past entire fields in stakes races at this track. Trainer Jackson wins 27 percent with horses returning in the 31-60 day window. The home-court advantage is real.
Nerazurri has the highest demonstrated class in the field and trainer Casse with Prat aboard is a formidable combination. She’s the class relief play if returning to form, but the 7-2 morning line is a slight underlay against the model’s projection given consecutive poor showings. Include her in exotic coverage but don’t anchor a win bet there.
The horse to fade is Tirupati at 9-2, whose best form came on turf in California. The model projects a nearly -10 percent underlay at the morning line. Surface switch from turf to dirt at nine furlongs shipping cross-country is a tough ask.
Race 12: Grade 3 Ohio Derby, 9 Furlongs
We’ve arrived. The main event. Finally.
The Grade 3 Ohio Derby, and the model has a very clear read.
Desert Gate is the top selection. The Baffert-trained colt has posted back-to-back dominant efforts with career-best speed figures, and he is the only pure frontrunner in this field. The model projects an uncontested opening half-mile in the :47 to :48 range with nobody capable of challenging his fractions. That kind of tactical supremacy through the first six furlongs is enormously valuable in a 9-furlong race. His sustained speed rating grades as elite on both ends: elite opening speed, elite sustained speed. The quick 5-furlong work at Churchill on June 13th confirms he’s training forwardly into this. Flavien Prat gives him a live rider. The morning line of 5-2 is essentially fair value, and the model is comfortable making him the top selection.
The value play is Ocelli at 9-2, and this is where the model is most enthusiastic from a value standpoint. He came off the Kentucky Derby with a career-best speed figure, rallying from 16th at the first call to finish third. That effort represents the highest figure in this field by a meaningful margin. His sustained speed rating also grades as elite, with closing velocity that consistently outpaces rivals. Three consecutive efforts have produced a rising speed figure sequence, which is a classic improvement arc for a late-developing closer. The pace scenario is not ideal though: soft early fractions don’t exactly set up the kind of late collapse he needs.
Chip Honcho is the third selection for multi-race sequences. A seasoned stakes runner with Asmussen and Ortiz, guaranteed to get a clean stalking trip two to four lengths off Desert Gate’s uncontested lead. His graded stakes experience is the deepest in the field outside of Ocelli.
The horse to avoid at the windows despite some public appeal is Bull by the Horns at 12-1. The model projects fair odds closer to 39-1 based on erratic form, pace collapse patterns, and bounce risk in his third start off a layoff. One win against restricted company doesn’t justify that price in a Grade 3.
There you have it. The App, with my model tweaking and handicapping principles, taking us through 12 races at Thistledown. It’ll be 365 days until we’re back here again. Good luck if you’re playing.
