TwinSpires Handicapper predicts Essential Quality will start a 7/2 Kentucky Derby Favorite

April 11, 2021

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (April 11, 2021) – Following the completion of the Road to the Kentucky Derby points races yesterday, TwinSpires Handicapper Ed DeRosa has assessed the odds of the likely contenders for this year’s Run for the Roses.

DeRosa is adamant the Brad Cox-trained Essential Quality will start the favorite for the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby On May 1. at Churchill Downs, and believes the son of Tapit will go off at odds of 7/2.

“After Concert Tour’s disappointing 3rd in the Arkansas Derby, there is now no doubt in my mind that undefeated champion Essential Quality will start the Derby a well-supported favorite,” said DeRosa.

“The combination of his unblemished record, fast times, local trainer and color (grey) will all add up to a large amount of public support.”

Essential Quality won the first of his 5 career races to date at Churchill Downs on the same day as last year’s Kentucky Derby, Sept 1.

Outside of Essential Quality, DeRosa thinks just three other runners will start at single-figure odds, with the handicapper marking Santa Anita Derby winner, Rock Your World, Blue Grass Stakes runner-up, Highly Motivated, and Louisiana Derby winner, Hot Rod Charlie, all equal second-favorites at 8/1.

“Choosing the favorite is easy, but finding a clear second pick is more difficult with a bunch of contenders all looking to go off around the 8/1 to 10/1 range.”

TwinSpires Handicapper Ed DeRosa’s Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds

Essential Quality 7/2

Hot Rod Charlie 8/1

Rock Your World 8/1

Highly Motivated 8/1

Known Agenda 12/1

Concert Tour 12/1

Super Stock 14/1

Medina Spirit 18/1

Midnight Bourbon 20/1

Mandaloun 20/1

Like The King 30/1

Bourbonic 30/1

Soup and Sandwich 30/1

Dynamic One 30/1

Caddo River 30/1

Helium 40/1

Crowded Trade 40/1

Sainthood 40/1

Others 50/1+

Twinspires Press Release

@jonathanstettin another excellent day for the man who does it best. Thx Jon &@Tracking_Trips. Hoping you have some thoughts for tomorrow!

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