Survie stole the show storming to the front in the Christophe Clement, Coglianese Photo
Kevin Gazzale
We are in the dog days of the Saratoga summer meet my friends. We’re at the point of the summer where you really start to question your methods, handicapping, and picks. I struggled this weekend with my confidence in putting proper handicapping into smart wagers. I went against one of my main laws which is a European Turf Shipper with a Saratoga jockey is almost auto add for multi race wagers. I left Survie off simply because of the turnaround and the Filly against boys. She stuffed me into a locker. Let’s get into the weekend.
Thursday
Spinning Colors nearly stole one on the front end for me but just couldn’t hang on. Lone speed from an inside gate going a mile on the inner turf is a must bet. I still had the exacta but could have really ballooned the P5 Payout.
Thanks to help from PTW’s Jon Stettin I had the confidence to have Stars and Stripes every way in the Bridstone, which allowed me to close the day on a positive note.
Friday
I was able to nail Zeitlos who I have always liked, especially on Turf and she finally got the setup she needed and dominated. I paired that with Contrary Thinking to take down the late P5 a few times for a small payout that carried me into Saturday. Unfortunately the rain that developed on Friday night would ruin Saturday’s card taking the non-stakes off the turf. I understand why NYRA did it, with the two biggest races of the day both being on the Turf but it really ruined the day before the day even started.
Saturday
My best call of the day was Cadenza who simply dominated the Galway, she dropped to the back and looked like she wasn’t prepared to do much running but circled the field with ease and dominated. I was nosed out of a solid exacta when the 1 got nailed for 2nd. But with a nice hefty win bet I was guaranteed an even day.
In the Christophe Clement I used a few horses, my pick going in was Fort George who unfortunately scratched. I was confident he was going to run a great race. After he scratched I talked myself into Ancient Egypt who drew the rail and had a European jockey, and he ended up favored! Am I fucking stupid? Of course Survie who I tossed just not thinking she would have the energy to come back in 2 weeks and she stormed to the front and dominated. We would have had the pick 5 for a couple hundred so it didn’t totally ruin my night but it did sting.
Sunday
Sunday I identified 5 horses I was going to lean on over 3 races. Trying to connect these races through pick 3’s and doubles proved to be more difficult than I thought. There is no worse feeling than getting your singles right but not being deep enough in other races to cash. I liked 5, Carc Brothers in the 2nd, Seeker’s Hope the 4 in Race 5, and Private Flight and Rebalancing in race 7. Between those 4 I was able to hit all 3 races, however bombs that I did not have came through in the maiden turf races and I cashed $0.
The final nail in the coffin was having the gumption to toss Outfielder in the Mahony but having my plays around Learntodiscover and Stradale but having nothing to show for it when Stradale runs first and Leantodiscover runs 5th. That was the kind of race where you stare at the ceiling and really think about if you’re having fun anymore.
Look Ahead to Saturday
Looking ahead to Saturday, we had some success with this segment 2 weeks back with Il Siciliano on Whitney Day. Let’s try to rekindle some of that mojo.
Asbury Park lands in Race 2 going long, gets Lasix Back after a dissapointing try in the G1 Turf Classic. He’s won going this long before, 2nd start at 4. I will be looking here.
Heads in Beds, race 4, goes send start with Saffie who’s been having a tough meet, but 2nd start of the 4 year old season after a longer layoff. This is the type of horse that can pop a career best number. Her 3 year old figures fit in here.
Cat on Time, Race 7, clearly they thought they had something with this horse when they entered him in the Vanderbilt a few weeks ago. He ran well and took some money all things considered going off at 12-1. He gets lasix back here and should sit a nice trip with a possible pace meltdown up front. Nakatomi is another closer here who you’d think will be vying for favoritism, but Nakatomi is 7 and coming back from overseas, I’m willing to play against.
Maria Callas, Race 9, there were a few ways to go in here and few horses that were interesting. Maria Callas the best chance to make a nice jump forward. I enjoy horses who make huge leaps with surface switches and that’s exactly what this horse did at the end of last season. Already has a come back race in June that wasn’t bad, gets 2nd time lasix here and may be in a nice spot in the 2nd or 3rd flight. It was tight for me between this one, Tuthilltown and Faiy Godmother, will be using all 3 in multi’s.
Play with Fire, Race 10, Segesta will be tough in her but she is a hard horse to figure out. Play with Fire is sitting on a big effort coming second off the layoff and second race at 4. Should be able to sit right in behind the leaders and tip out at the right time. She’s proven she can run with these with good figures at a 3YO and she’s proven she can do it without Lasix. Ozara from the rail was interesting too where she appears to be finally getting back to her preferred distance and will get firm going.
Final Thoughts
Obviously the biggest story of the weekend/week was the HISA/Marshall Gramm story. It sucks that inside info can be exploited like that and used to gain an edge, especially considering how prominent Marshall is in the contest space. Justice for Rennie Time! Give him his NHC seat he deserves. All in all it’s a shitty story that is reason 1,000,000 horse racing is crazy and rolling downhill towards it’s eventual demise. But in the mean time I will enjoy every race I can and enjoy every day on HRT like we had Monday. Everyone was out in the streets on HRT and it created one of the more fun days on twitter that I can remember.
Good luck this weekend, 2 weeks to Travers, 3 weeks to CFB. God Bless!
