Jimmy W’s Belmont July 15th Analysis

July 14, 2017

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Jimmy W Belmont Analysis
Race #1
#1 Tasunke Witco – while I promise I have not fallen in love with the last race romp after the brief freshening against cheaper, I still think this one is sharp and has the perfect style rating just off the pace . Irad/Rudy strong .
#4 King of Anything – it’s quite simple for me here with this one, I see a ton of pace that’s dying to quit, classier types but way off form, this gelding runs back to his last race which was his Belmont debut and is a force down the lane .
#6 Evolution – yes cheap but is another who might be able to rate a tad from favorable outpost; needed his last race and interesting Fragoso/ Parker 25% at Belmont.
Race #2#6 Tizza Temper – filly gets a slight cut back and with the lack of pace, she should sit in a good spot close up and be the one to catch in late stretch . Englehart/Ortiz very high % combo.
#10 Super Moana – seemed to get it all together in her last race but that was back in November while losing to stakes placed “Fifty Five ” while second by a neck. Chad can have them ready and Irad is up .
#2 She’s Dreamin – was game in both tries so far but will need good pace up top, not sure, while she can improve again might be a type to just pick up the pieces late. Franco/Bush 29% duo .Race #3 The Rockville Centre 100k#5 Morning Breez – yep picking this Carlos Martin trainee over 2 Pletchers and a Joe Sharp who won by 17; losing my mind ? Maybe. This colt was very professional while winning debut from just off the pace , time fits for me. Montanez/Martin 29% limited starts .
#4 What a Catch – might very well be the favorite so watch the board here but just feel this one beat soft field and race came back slow. Can improve as these youngsters do but idk.
#1 Analyze the Odds – broke kind of flat footed in The Tremont vs much better and kinda grinded out a non threatening 5th; was much sharper in Big A opener so mixed feelings.
#3 Morrison – won debut by 17 lengths vs open company but was against 3 others and in the slop. Faker ?

Race #4 

#5 Fire Key – filly has the ability to lay real close which should give her tactical edge getting 1st jump and looks best to me here .
#2 Vicki’s Dancer – feel Klesaris horse is sneaky in this spot , can inherit the lead quite early and while cheap might sneak in here .
Can’t separate #4 BarriertoEntry and #7 Startswithsilver but do feel while dangerous both will be overbet .

Race #5

#2 Hold on Momma – while it’s tough to get excited about a horse coming off a 35 length last place finish, I kinda am excited . Line it out as it was vs much better and in the slop . Maragh back and this filly has plenty of races that make her stand out vs these.
#3 E Warfare – is a big threat to go all the way vs these .
#5 Novique – now or never for this big dropper who has obvious health issues throughout .
Race #6 * Upset Special#11 Steamboat Bill – long awaited class relief imo, some troubled trips; as long as we get some pace this one will be picking them off late! Oh btw, Carmouche/Contessa 75% @ Belmont 38% overall not bad while Contessa is low % always , this combo means business when together .
Will be using him with the #4 Stormin Maclean , #2 Yummy Bear and #5 BaselineRace #7#6 Cafe Y Blanco – Weaver gelding improved drastically while rating and finishing with interest in second start; love the stretchout here as he will be able to lay close throughout. Price will be square  and I love the undervalued turf breeding.
#7 Filius Scat – willing to give Klesaris gelding one more chance to wire these here, as last time he was bumped badly while trying turf 1st time .
#10 Risky Sour – layed up since December but fits well with these .
#4 Kierland and #8 Incorporate will take money .

Race #8 The Forbidden Apple 150k

While everyone is in awe of #9 Disco Partner’s 1:05 and change track record going 6f, I am not , while Green Mask came back to win , there was another within a length of Partner also that day … I expect the stretchout to take the starch out of him and I don’t expect him to run the mile in 1:31 and change lol .
#1 Get Jets – while getting his biggest class test here , I expect it not to be a problem as has fresh legs and has ran fast enough to be a force here ; nothing wrong with all 3 starts , Irad chooses the #9 but we get Johnny V. I will take it .
#6 Offering Plan – if Kreesa and Cerise go, I expect this Chad Brown runner to be flying late . While a tad slower than some others, feel will be heard from late with Javy making a timely move.
#9 Disco Partner is sharp and have to respect, just think the mile might not suit him .
#8 Bondurant been lackluster but is capable if sits further back gets pace and makes one run .

Race #9 

#2 Mr. Pete – colt was bet in 1st try vs favored and winning Pletcher runner “What a Catch” who we can get a look at earlier in card to upgrade us or downgrade us . In that initial try, he veered out badly at start and ended up running on very well to finish second . Hood goes on , inner post and Jose Ortiz takes over .
#4 Collective Effort – we go to school again here as we track how “Morning Breez” does in earlier race also , that one beat up on him that day as speed and fade but held second in initial try , will hope to be stronger this time and wore them .
#6 Bad Guy – ran an even 3rd behind the #4 first time out and any improvement puts him in mid.

Race #10

#9 Spring Folly – always tough to take horse 1x vs winners but thus fully ran strong both times and feel she is better than these .
#11 Lady Bergen – needed last perhaps when facing winners 1x, took over early before fading late . Kimmel to Asmussen , Cancel to Castellano are some serious upgrades .
#6 Lovers Key and #3 Mr. Freeze have the talent needed to be in mix .

Race #11 

#4 Appealing Briefs – colt’s been away since January, gets blinkers , Johnny V back on and has faced much better than these .
#8 Red Knight – turf debut was washed off and gelding ran huge in slop first asking at 17-1 losing by a nose . Mott/ Jose Ortiz and gets to try turf here .
#11 Zonic – has been trying to turf last 2 x while rained off , gets chance today with rough post but fits if takes to it .
#9 Isles of Arch – needs to improve but rates a chance here as both turf tries were ok .

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