By The 2YO EdgeMan
I love playing well-bred First-Time Starters in the baby races. It’s a special feeling when you back a juvenile in their first race and they go out and dominate. It’s especially gratifying when they become a stakes horse and you can boast a bit by reminding folks that you bet that horse on his/her debut. But, as you know, successful handicapping is not about feelings or braggadocio that you can proclaim at a dinner party. So, I decided to do some digging and see how debutants did in 2024 at the tracks that interest me the most (Keeneland, Churchill, Ellis Park, Kentucky Downs, and Saratoga).
There were a total of 262 MSW races for 2YOs with a purse of $50,000+ this year at ‘my’ five tracks. Exactly 1400 First-Time Starters entered the gate in those races (an average of 5.34 per race). By comparison, 1235 juveniles had at least one prior race under their belt in these events (an average of 4.71 per race). Hence, more horses were making their debut. But did more firsters win? Let’s take a look…
The numbers show that 121 winners were newby runners while 141 victors had previously started prior to breaking their maiden. That works out to a strike rate of 11.4% for the experienced runners compared to only 8.6% for those making their first attempt – nearly a 3% delta!
Just for fun, let’s separate horses making their second start from those that had already run at least twice. Using the same data set, 735 had been out exactly one time before, and 89 of those found the Winner’s Circle for a win rate of 12.1%. Youngsters that had a minimum of twice races of previous experience numbered an even 500 and they accounted for 52 victories – only 10.4%.
Bottom line, while it might be more fun to play First-Time Starters, statistically, babies are more successful after they’ve had an opportunity to experience a live race.
Have fun with the two-year-olds – they are the best! Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of my Delightful Edgies.
