Belmont Park Saturday Analysis by Anthony Fontaine

September 14, 2019

The talk of the racing world has centered on Justify and the alleged failed drug test after the Santa Anita Derby. If he was disqualified from that race he would not have had enough points to enter the Kentucky Derby, and well you know the rest. 

I have two points, the first being if the CHRB thought this was an innocent occurrence of being found positive off of something in the feed, why did they then choose to be cloaked in secrecy and only now are scrambling with a PR team to try and convince everyone they are on the up and up and don’t favor Bob Baffert. 

Second, in this day and age nothing is kept from the light no matter how innocuous it may appear to be, and the best course of action is to always try and get ahead of any potential embarrassing situation. Clearly, they failed to do that. On to today’s analysis of Belmont Park!

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The “Anthony Fontaine” himself

On to today’s Belmont Card! 

Race One: Selections 3-5-6-1 

In what may quite possibly be the slowest race I have ever handicapped at Belmont, I reluctantly will go with #3 Getoffmyback in the top slot. This runner has been facing better and should be able to give a performance good enough to best these. #5 is obviously a player but avoids the winners circle like Superman avoids kryptonite. Hard for me to back this one on top but should be in the mix. #6 Lord Simba has a punchers chance in this spot as this one adds blinkers for this assignment and showing more speed would give this one its best chance for a top three performance today at Belmont Park. 

Race Two: Selections 5-4-2-1 

#5 The Happy Giant ran a deceptively good race last out at the spa where the traffic flow hampered his ability for a better finish yet was not beaten by much. Has a big shot in this spot today. #4 Causeforcelebration has many slices but the win remains elusive after 17 starts. This one also will need pace to close into but may get an ideal set up today and be in the mix at a nice price late. #2 Big Wonder is dangerous in this spot with the speedy running style. The rider will have a theft on his mind and may just be able to pull it off as this is not a field of world beaters. 

Race Three: Selections 4-1a-3-1 

#4 Fuel the Bern is dangerous in this spot for some connections that have a great strike rate. Has the tactical speed to get an optimal trip and may have enough in the tank to hold off closers and pay double digits. #1a along with entry mate drop to a spot for a confidence boosting effort. Both parts of the entry are capable of taking this however the price will be unattractive and they are no sure thing so I prefer to use underneath today. #3 Eye Luv Lulu comes off a very disappointing race at the Spa and will find todays competition to be more palatable. On best day smokes these however I am not willing to take a stab in the win column at such a short number on an uncertain runner form wise. 

Race Four: Selections 1-3-4-6 

Graphite Dutchess broke badly in debut and never made an impression. Will benefit exponentially from the experience and with a clean getaway today can shock this field. #3 Magnetique also ran a disappointing effort at the spa but should rebound nicely in this spot and give a much better account of ability at a better price. #4 Maru debuts for Rudy being by a hot young sire that was very precocious. Trainer never really reveals what he has with works yet wins regularly paying double digits in scenarios like this. Willing to give this one a shot to be in the trifecta. 

Race Five: Selections 11-4-1-3 

#11 Risky Sour has had some competitive races and keeps JR riding for his father in law in this spot. Horse has been in and out but feel this one gets a good set up with the flow of this race and lights up the tote board. #4 Croque Monsieur switches barns and drops precipitously in class looking to get back on the beam. Should be competitive with this bunch and compete for a slot in the exacta. #1 Rhode Island always closes and gives a solid effort, only issue this one does not seem fond of the winners circle. Perfect horse to key in each slot of the trifecta as does not offer real value in odds. 

Race Six: Selections 7-3-5-6 

#7 Octava has a beautiful pedigree and although this one may ultimately be better at longer distances I expect a big performance right off the bat. #3 Mrs. S has been working well for debut and if this one can pop the gate running may not look back. #5 New Day Dawning is another with impeccable breeding. Trainer can have them ready first out and is a major player in this race. 

Race Seven: Selections 10-6-5-3 

#10 Antoinette debuts for Mott and one of his charges for new client Godolphin, that have been making it rain at the Keeneland sales this week. Works are good and the perception of Mott not being able to win early has somewhat faded the past few years. Give this one a big chance today. #6 Windfall Profit is a full to multiple stake winners as this pairing has produced some nice runners in years past. Have to believe this one is better than the first race indicated and willing to back heavily in the exacta slots today. #5 Scape has been working well for Mott and see this one firing right off the bat just like stablemate in a competitive race. 

Race Eight: Selections 9-7-5-6 

#9 Keota did not appreciate the surface switch last out and will look to get back on track today. Trainer wins on any surface everywhere and will have this charge ready for a big performance today. #7 Rossellini drops to a spot where should be competitive among friendlier foes. With a good trip this one is live for both exacta slots. #5 Connectivity loves to close late for a slice and will love to see a duel upfront. This one should get a good setup here and will be arriving late on the scene as usual. 

Race Nine: Selections 4-5-2-3 

True Gold broke thru last out a few months ago and returns to the races off a freshening. This one was ran over his head in many instances however has always been talented and I think has found a field where he can be a major player at a nice price and start a winning streak. #5 Lutsky drops from Stakes Company to a more reasonable spot today. Speed is always dangerous and this one has it in abundance. If able to break sharply will be hard to deny a top three finish. #2 Amundson has ran some decent races without really threatening to be in the top two. May get a good race flow and be able to stick around much longer today at Belmont Park. 

Race Ten: Selections 8-5-2-4 

#8 East is a daughter of European Sire sensation Frankel that now takes permanent residence this side on the pond. Ran a distant second in the juvenile filly turf however feel this one has caught a field well within her scope and ability to come out on top today. #5 Passing Out for Shug won a race last out at the Spa that defied logic. If not for a very adroit ride by all rights should have finished 5th. Waters are deeper today however I sense we have not seen this one’s best of yet and will continue to develop into a nice runner. #2 Blowout ran well against some nice horses to just miss last out. If any of the top two finishers were entered today they would be even money at best. Expect another big performance today. 

Race Eleven: Selections 4-7-10-9 

#4 Mike’s Girl has speed aplenty and comes off a maiden score looking to make it two in a row. Has the tactical ability to sit a good trip and hold off the closers today. #7 Andretta another with some speed but usually found wanting in the lane. Will have to ration speed and save something for the stretch to have a say in the outcome today. #10 Tradeable drops to find friends and may have just landed in a garden spot. Can stalk and pounce if rider is able to work out a good trip from the wide post today at Belmont Park.

Best of Luck, Win the Photos, and enjoy the racing!

Anthony F

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