We start the day in a race with some intriguing jockey movement #6 Happy Match – 4th chance here vs. maiden claimers but have a feeling the connections dropped Arroyo with disappointments in last 2 races , Manny Franco now and gets jump on #3 My Uncle Al – where the vengeful Arroyo lands , will be the one to beat but feel my top choice has pace edge . #5 Correjon – will be prominent throughout for Rudy Rod . #7 Read My Lips – will get some attention at the windows based on huge drop and horses faced ( Monaco & Made you look) , blinkers on too , but passing for me , hasn’t run a lick .
#7 Violet Blue – hmmmm was bet right into the #8 Blenheim Palace in last and finished 1/4 length behind him in only his second start ! the latter #8 Blenheim Palace – is a super money burner and it’s now or never , not getting my money .
#3 Furtive Glance – Mott firster on turf with apprentice H Diaz Jr. interesting and I project this one going to the lead and trying to wire them but you think Mott 1x can do it going 1 3/8th’s ? Asking alot.
#5 Lemondrop Lollipop – honest type but seems a notch below , can improve but will be a tad surprising .Race#3
#3 All About Ashley – gains Jose Ortiz while dropping to lower level claimers ; probably needed last vs faster types in sharp run race , should nail them here as enough pace to close into .
#4 Brewing – another dropping a bit , has faced much better and fits with these if can rate a tad .
#6 Monster Mash – likes Belmont , nice cozy outside post and projects to take them as far as he can .Race #4
#3 Cerratalto – after 2 strong dirt tries , taking a shot stretching out on the turf , feel will take to it fine and has the speed to steal or lay just off and take over ; only needs take to the lawn!
#1 Leaveematthegate – the bad 0-8 on the turf, 0-5 on this very course but that don’t tell the whole story for this unlucky type , shown me enough with minor placings in those , Jose Ortiz stats and sees fit .
#2 Fulmer – will need to run back to his 2014 , yes 2014 , promise ; since been gelded , freshened and switched from Clement to Linda Rice ….maybe .Race#5
#6 River Date – projects to be alone on the lead , likes Belmont , maybe little longer than he wants but horse runs big every time faces these claiming types.
#3 Marriage Fever – should be sitting just off the top choice and can finish that way .
#7 Johns Island – Rosario is a significant upgrade , will be sitting in good spot but not sure he wants this far .
#5 Taoiseoch – is worth a mention as he’s been knocking on the door, but would need a pace battle here .Race #6
Tricky race here with a few unknowns and interesting jockey decisions but will land on the #4 Lido – who will need a little pace to run into but has moved strongly in both starts ; not thrilled with departure of Rosario for other and 1x vs winners but fits for me here .
#6 Padoga – an unknown but Jose Ortiz sees fits on this French import for the highly capable Lynch training now stateside ; another going 1x vs winners but feel could be this good or better .
#5 Volatility Index – Chad Brown , possible pace edge over most and probable post time fave ; the thing that bothers me is how she got nailed last time at the wire .Race #7
#4 Fact Check – I wanted to find a way to beat this money burner but I just can’t here , towers over field here …. can wire them , can lay just off and take over ; I guess can get nipped late but by who ???
#1 Yummy Bear – thinking the cut back will help , the possible upsetter if can move earlier ; I like the move in last at 45-1 in quick race .
#5 Lucky Town – should sit a good trip and has some races on turf that make him tough in here ; jumping off the page is his 2 starts on this course at today’s distance , a first and second place .Race#8
#3 Summer of Joy – turf to dirt , the cut back , class edge all should be enough for this one to wear them down late .
#5 Tainted Angel – another closer for me here also with a class edge for Rudy Rod as I just can’t see any of the cheaper pace types getting away at 6 1/2 furlongs .
#10 Audrique – if speed type is to ha g around , this is the speed of the speed and the drop might make her last a tad longer .Race #9
#9 Good Samaritan – No more excuses , not the ideal post but with speed to his inside he should get over just fine ; Rosario stays and added distance can only help . Need to see and believe this one takes a step forward and blows these away late .
#7 Ticonderoga – Chas Brown colt always shows up and makes a run but has already finished behind the top choice twice and find last start disappointing .
#8 Secretary At War – pace presence has to deal with the overrated #6 Oscar Performance but feel this one has the more upside; and just might hang around late .Race #10
The finale is a maiden claimer on the turf with horses from Chad Brown , Wesley Ward and Todd Pletcher , so if you beat them you can get paid !!! …. ok now wake up !
#8 Starstuck Kitten – ran an even race finishing 4th by 2 lengths and change at 5-1 in MSW unveiling at Keeneland … Ramsey , Ward , Rosario and the drop to the maiden claiming ranks makes this one tough to beat.
#11 Harlans Punch – probably needed last , got caught wide while pressing fast pace and faded ; that was fast and vs better , now facing maiden claimers and is a severe threat with easier lead here . Oh Pletcher / Johnny V.
#10 Prognastication – Chad Brown / Jose Ortiz , improved last time seen on turf and with drop to maiden claimers , sticks in claimers here but been off since October , still very dangerous .
Ok so if you need to keep the dream alive #5 Thayer Week, 1st timer for Weaver has some things to like and will be an upsetting end of the day , if , big if .