2YO Maiden Special Weight ‘Picks, Plays and Pontification’ – Saratoga, 07/21/2023

July 20, 2023

Saratoga, Race 1 – Friday, July 21, 2023

By 2YO EdgeMan

SAR1:072123 – 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  As long as none of these scratch, all the gates will be full as we’ve got ten entered, however two are listed as main track only.  We’ve got eight fellas (including one gelding) set to square off against two gals.  Seven will be dancing for the first time in the afternoon, while three have got one run under their girth.  Ward and Clement each dropped two into the entry box, while Joseph, Lukas, Maker, Mott and Pletcher will saddle one each.  On the sire side, Winstar Farm’s Constitution has two going, along with one from Winstar’s Goldencents, Spendthrift Farm’s super sire Into Mischief, Mendelssohn, Uncle Mo, Blame and Munnings.  Add to that, a colt from Spendthrift’s excellent debut sire, Omaha Beach.  Hopefully I now have your undivided attention…

#4 – Every Four Years (7/2) – The first of two by Constitution, this colt has raced one time previously – in early June at BEL on the dirt when he went off as the 4/5 favorite.  On that day he got off to a poor start, but righted the ship quickly and got into the chase, ultimately getting beat by two lengths and only finished a head short of second place while earning an 81 EBSF.  This guy was a relatively modest $50,000 yearling last September at Keeneland (89/105) and he’s trained by Christophe Clement.  His Speightstown dam won only one race from six starts, but that win was her second out in September of her two-year-old season when she scored at BEL with a fine 82 EBSF.  He’s put in four morning works since his race, all at Belmont and her last earned her a bullet – 37.21 seconds for three poles (1/12).  Manny Franco gets the call to again pilot him.

#6 – Reverend Moon (5/1) – The second of Clement’s two runners, this firster is by Omaha Beach, out of a Malibu Moon mare that couldn’t find the Winner’s Circle in five attempts.  She’s produced four foals of racing age, only one has started and that one was a winner.  Today’s runner is a home-bred from Robert Evans who has logged 11 total works – the first four were at Payson Park back in April and early May, then three in May at The Spa’s Oklahoma training oval, and finally he was shipped east for four at Belmont.  This dude has showed some pop in a few of his works – on 5/29/23 at SAR he traveled three panels in 36.83 seconds (3/52) and then his last two at BEL were ½ mile efforts – 49.19 seconds (1/9) and 48.85 secs (5/30).  Joel Rosario gets the call to ride.

#7 – Same Old Fears (5/2) – Wesley Ward sends out this FTS filly by Uncle Mo and he also owns and bred her.  He tried to get $435K for her as a yearling last summer at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, but she did not meet that reserve amount.  Mama won $41,000 on the track, winning on one occasion in five runs.  She threw a gelding who banked $174K with a 2 for 7 record (one win was in a black-type affair).  Today’s runner started her morning prep regimen on the All-Weather surface at Turfway Park.  She worked there three times, all at 3f, before shipping to Lexington for seven more morning outings (six of them at four panels).  True to Ward form, she’s worked pretty briskly overall, with her most recent on 7/11/23 probably the best – 47.6 seconds for four furlongs (4/65).  Jose will slip his feet into the irons (although he’s also listed on the #10 horse).

#9 – Foxhole (5/2) – This colt is set to make his first ever start, but the race will have to come off the turf if he is to do so as he is entered by his conditioner, Todd Pletcher, as ‘Main Track Only’ (MTO).  He is the second Constitution runner in this event and he was a $285K yearling at the KEE Sept Sale last year (26/105).  His Cherokee Run dam only raced once and she was not the winner, but has thrown two nice geldings – one who won $121K while racing, going 3 for 22 with one of his wins coming during his second outing in September of his juvenile campaign at Woodbine (76 EBSF).  The other gelding brought home $379K in purse money with eight wins from 35 starts.  One of the wins was first out, also at WO in September of his 2YO year (84 EBSF) and he followed that up with a victory in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes at Woodbine (bumping his EBSF to 85).  Foxhole has worked eight times, all at Belmont Park.  He’s rifled off two, half mile bullets – the first was three back when he went in 47.23 seconds (1/39), then two back he zipped off a 47.57 (1/89).  Irad will be the reinsman.

#10 – Sam’s Treasure (2/1) – The morning line favorite is also a ‘Main Track Only’ entrant and is WW’s second filly in the field – this gal is by Munnings.  She was a whopping $700K yearling at last November’s Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Sale which was the most of all of the 91 yearlings sold by his sire last year.  Interestingly, his Malibu Moon dam was winless in five efforts on the track and she has only thrown one other of racing age – a three-year-old colt who is yet to start.  This filly does have a race under her belt – a five furlong event on the lawn at Belmont back on May 11 when she chased the winner the entire way and held second place, beaten by 2 ¾ lengths, with a 74 EBSF.  Ward has drilled five works into her since that race, four at KEE and then her latest was on the Oklahoma strip here at SAR.  Contrary to typical Ward training, none of her recent works have been fast, but he has stretched her out to 5f moves in her last two.  As mentioned above, Jose has been named, even though he’s also listed for the #7 horse.

Pick – #4 Every Four Years – The two MTOs makes picking a winner a bit tricky at this point, especially since both #9 and #10 are quality juveniles.  The weather forecast is calling for a high likelihood of rain, so odds are these two will end up competing.  The flip side is that we’ll probably get a few scratches from the other eight horses, if the race does come off the lawn.  Bottom line, Every Four Years ran a solid race in his first outting (81 EBSF) and I think the experience of that race will give him a big lift today.  Christophe Clement has hit with 22.7% of his 2YO MSW runners at The Spa over the previous five years (17 for 75) and delivered a strong ROI of $2.19.  The surface switch to turf is interesting with this dude, but if it does rain, that may be a moot point.  I like that Manny will again be aboard this colt and his recent works are strong.  I think that the betting public may overlook him a bit, especially if TAP and Wesley’s horses join the fray.  Best of luck to this guy’s owner in the Game of Silks – House of Fred Top-10.

Saratoga has booked two more of ‘our races’ for Saturday (one being at a mile and a sixteenth on the grass), so be on the look out for those (Note: one of the horses entered in the 1st on Sat is a full brother to an extremely good and very interesting horse – you’ll just have to turn out to find out who that is!).  And as always, I encourage you keep up to date with all things on PastTheWire.com.  We need a winner, my Edgie Pals – let’s do this!

Great article by @Pastthewire

David Mussad @DavidMussad View testimonials

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