2YO Maiden Special Weight ‘Picks, Plays and Pontification’ – Keeneland, 10/12/2023

October 11, 2023

Keeneland, Race 5 – Thursday, October 12, 2023

By 2YO EdgeMan

KEE5:101223 – 1 mile on the turf.  An overflowing entry box of 16 males (15 colts and one gelding) want to run, but only 12 fit on the track.  Everyone has at least one race of experience coming into this one – eight with just one start, two with two under their belt, one has run three times previously and one has been out on four occasions.  Let’s get after it…

#6 – Phreddie Mac (15/1) – This colt is the most well-seasoned in the field having competed four times already in his freshman year.  Asmussen moves him to the grass for the first time in hopes of improving his performance (he’s never finished in the top three and six lengths is the closest that he’s got so far).  His sire is Hard Spun and his dam won 2 of 8 races and $125K, including her third start as a two-year-old at Woodbine.  She’s foaled a 4YO that is a full bro to this guy who has been quite successful – 5 of 13, banking $237K and he won at second asking in November of his 2YO campaign at Belmont, posting an excellent 88 Equibase Speed Figure.  Today’s colt sold for $235K as a yearling (7/69).  Steve’s put two maintenance works into him since his last afternoon effort.

#7 – Radio Liberty (4/1) – Brad Cox is in charge of getting this Audible colt prepped and saddled for his second time into battle.  This will be his first try on the lawn after finishing 4th at Saratoga at odds of 12/1.  He hammered for $150K in September at Keeneland last fall as a yearling (42/123).  His mama was not a fabulous race mare, having a record of 2 for 9 and $79,000 in earnings, but she produced Major Dude, who’s now a three-year-old with $765K in purse money and a nifty resume of 5 wins in 13 starts, including a score first time out a Monmouth last year as a 2YO in June.  Brad shipped today’s runner out onto Long Island after his race where he’s installed four maintenance works into him at Belmont Park.

#9 – Thomas Aquinas (2/1) – The Morning Line favorite is by Catholic Boy and is trained by Ian Wilkes.  His Street Cry dam was unraced and she’s only produced two others of racing age – neither has won more than $100K.  This homebred has been out three times (first two on the dirt and his last was over the grass at KD).  Two runner-up finishes in his last two efforts has earned him $45,000.  Since his last, he’s been out in the morning twice, both at Churchill Downs.  

#10 – Zverev (3/1) – Cherie DeVaux is the conditioner of this colt for Belladonna Racing (and partners).  His stallion is the grass wizard, Oscar Performance and he’s out of a terrific racemare who eclipsed the $1 million mark in earnings on the track, going 6 for 16, including a win first out at two in October (92 EBSF) and three Grade 1 wins in her career.  However, she’s only produced one runner to earn north of $100K.  This guy has raced one time prior to today – it was back on 9/2/23 at Saratoga going 8 ½ furlongs on the turf, at off odds of 12/1.  In that event, he loafed along at the very back of the pack, nearly double-digit lengths off of the pace, before getting his engine started on the turn.  However, down the lane he ran into traffic issues, but still found a way to finish only two lengths short of the victor – Agate Road – who has since come back to capture the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes last week at Belmont at the Big A.  He stayed up in upstate New York and worked three times after his debut, before shipping down to Lexington recently.  

Pick – #10 Zverev – You’ll have to watch the replay of his race up at SAR to fully appreciate the difficult trip that he faced and the turn of foot that he demonstrated.  Oscar Performance has been very successful in his young stallion career with offspring on the turf, boasting a record of 9 for 47 (19.2%).  And his dam was very precocious and a fantastic runner (see above).  Three works can only help put even more of a base under him – I look for a big race from him today, although his odds will likely be relatively short.  This dude is still available in the pool at the Game of Silks.

Contributing Authors

The 2YO Edge Man, Past The Wire

The 2YO EdgeMan

The 2YO EdgeMan started following horse racing when his family moved to Louisville, KY when he was 9 years old.  The story goes that he...

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