2YO Maiden Special Weight ‘Picks, Plays and Pontification’ – 11/23/2023

November 22, 2023

Churchill Downs, Race 12 – Thursday, November 23, 2023

By 2YO EdgeMan

CD12:112323 – Five and a half furlongs on the dirt.  Fourteen juvenile fillies have been entered – two will be listed as ‘Also Eligible’ and 12 are expected to head to the gate.  More than half of these gals have never run in the afternoon (7), two have raced one time previously, two had competed twice and one wily veteran will be saddled up for her seventh start.  Honestly, not too many of these fillies excite me, but let’s take a gander at the three who do…

#2 – Parade Down Broad (8/1) – Brendan Walsh trains this filly that is sired by Liam’s Map.  His dam won her third race in September of her two-year-old year at Ellis Park, but never won again in the additional two races that she competed.  In total, she brought home purse winnings of $55K.  She’s produced seven other foals of racing age and her star was a gelding who visited the Winner’s Circle 17 times in the 80 races that he ran.  He banked north of $1/2 million and won in his second event as a two-year-old in July at Calder flashing a healthy 85 Equibase Speed Figure.  This filly RNAed as a yearling when her owner was asking $55,000 for her, but did change hands as a 2YO earlier this year – the final hammer price was $130K (9/23).  She will be making her first start, but has been prepped with a dozen drills.  After her first two at the Travis Durr Training Center in August, she shipped to Turfway Park for six spins on their All-Weather track.  Then it was on to the home of the Twin Spires for her most recent four breezes.  She’s been under the 12 second per furlong mark twice recently – her last at TP on 10/18/23 she went a half mile in 47.8 seconds (3/21) and then on 11/12/23 here at CD, she went the same time for the same distance (6/54).  Tyler gets the call to be her pilot.

#7 – Legadema (8/1) – This filly’s dad is the late, great Arrogate and her dam is by Not for Love who won 2 of her 20 starts, while cashing in for $106K in prize money.  Two of her five foals of racing age have won over $100K, with one of them winning her second start as a two-year-old at Belmont Park while fashioning an 86 EBSF.  Today’s filly sold big – she demanded $590K last fall as a yearling (4/61).  Conditioner Phillip Bauer (2 for 4 with 2YO MSW FTSers at Churchill in the fall from 2018 thru 2022 – $4.50 ROI) enters her today for her debut showing and she’s been getting ready for the big day with eight spins around the Churchill Downs’ oval.  Her times have not been historic, but she did earn a small bullet on 8/7/23 when she covered a half mile in 49 seconds flat (1/12).  

#10 – Mischievous Mind (4/1) – Tom Drury, Jr. (0 for 8 with 2YO MSW Non-FTSers at CD in the fall over the prior five years) sends out this daughter of Runhappy, who was foaled from an A.P. Indy mare who scored three times in the 14 efforts that she made.  Her earnings were $213K and she did win as a two-year-old at KEE in her fourth start (81 EBSF).  She followed that up with a runner up finish while still two in a Grade 2 event.  This filly is a Phipp’s homebred and she’ll be making her second start today.  Her first afternoon run was at Horseshoe Indianapolis in late October.  On that day, she sprinted today’s distance of 5 ½ furlongs on the dirt.  After a poor beginning that left her far back in last place, she gathered herself and then made a run up the rail late on the back stretch, stayed tight on the turn and finished strong – only beaten by 4 ¼ lengths while collecting third place money.  Since that start, Tom shipped her down to CD for two half mile works (her most recent was from the gate).  

Pick – #7 – Legadema – Based on her troubled debut trip last out, I sense that Mischievous Mind may well get over bet today.  She may win, but I’m playing against her.  Instead, I like Legadema’s sire – Arrogate – and am encouraged by the fact that one of her half-sisters won at second asking at BEL while a 2YO and posted a strong EBSF.  This filly also sold well – she made the ‘Top 10%’ of her class, which is impressive coming from Arrogate.  Bauer has done extremely well with FTSers in these races over the past five years at this meet, although the sample size is small.  Eight spins over today’s surface in the mornings is a plus and I think she may just break her maiden in her first try today.

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