2YO Maiden Special Weight ‘Picks, Plays and Pontification’ – 11/19/2023

November 18, 2023

Churchill Downs, Race 7 – Sunday, November 19, 2023

By 2YO EdgeMan

CD7:111923 – Six furlongs over the dirt.  Ten boys are ready to duke it out in this one that will include eight colts and two geldings.  Half of the field will be competing for the first time ever, three have done it once, one has raced twice and one experienced dude will be making his fifth career start.  Four of them are interesting to me, so let’s look at them…

#5 – Miyagi (3/1) – The Morning Line fav is trained by Wayne Catalano and he’ll be sending this Not This Time gelding out for his second race.  Mom, by Shanghai Bobby, was unraced and this is her first foal.  He’s been through the sales ring three times already – as a weanling, he brought $30,000 (12/13) and then as a yearling last July he hammered for $150K (33/76).  Most recently, in October of last year, he did not meet his reserve of $85,000.  The race that he’s run was at Keeneland – six furlongs on the dirt back on 10/7/23.  He went off at odds of 2/1, broke in 10th of 11 and worked his way up to third, ultimately finishing fourth, beaten by double digit lengths.  The second-place finisher in that one – Nash – came back recently to run huge.  Wayne has been able to get four half mile works into him since his last, all at KEE.  On 10/24/23 he went in 47.2 seconds from the gate (3/19) and on 11/11/23, he zipped it in 47 seconds flat (2/52).  Tyler gets the return engagement to pilot him.

#8 – Yo Banana Boy (5/1) – This Practical Joke colt was bred in NY and is by a mare who won twice from 14 starts and earned $103K.  He sold as a yearling for $50,000 (33/72) and then was pinhooked back for $160K as a 2YO (9/37), earlier this year.  Trained by Destin Heath, this guy has started twice before.  His debut effort was back in September in a MSW event at BAQ.  He led for most of that race before getting run down late and only losing by a neck (while earning an Equibase Speed Fig of 80).  Destin ran him back last month in a $160K stakes race for state breds at Finger Lakes where he regressed to finish a soundly beaten sixth of seven.  He’s work twice since his last affair, both at four furlongs.  Luis has been named to ride him for the first time today.

#9 – Carbone (9/2) – One of two Steve Asmussen trained colts in this field, this guy’s a homebred from Corinne and William Helligbrodt.  He is sired by Spendthrift Farm’s excellent debut sire – Mitole.  His dam only found the Winner’s Circle once in nine tries, but the lone win was in her second effort, in December of her 2YO campaign at Gulfstream and she posted a strong 84 EBSF that day.  This dude is a FTSer who started his work at Keeneland back in early June where he breezed three times, took a three-month break and then was shipped west to Ellis Park for eight more drills.  Two of his last three over in Henderson, KY were bullets, both covering four poles – one was done in 47.4 seconds and one was completed in 47.2 seconds.  Recently he vanned over to Louisville and got one spin in on the Churchill oval – 47.6 seconds from the gate (by himself) for a half mile (5/54).  The jockey duties will go to Ricardo Santana, Jr.

#10 – Decatur Street (8/1) – Godolphin will send out this homebred colt for his first ever run today.  Conditioned by the HOFer, Bill Mott, he is by Street Sense and is out of an unraced Smart Strike mare.  She’s thrown five others of racing age and two of them have won north of $100K.  One of those two hauled in $779K by winning six of 16, including a Grade 2 event just last month.  B Mott – 0 for 8 at CD in the fall in 2YO MSW races from 2018 thru 2022) has only worked today’s runner six times, all at Churchill, with his first published work having come on the last day of September.  He’s posted ‘average Mott’ times, but did slip in a 1:01.2 move covering five panels in early November (4/33).  Laparoux gets the call to be the reinsman.  

Pick – #9 Carbone – Asmussen does pretty well with 2YO Maiden Special Weight FTSers at the CD Fall meet (he’s had the second most number of winners – 6, only one shy of Brad Cox from 2018 thru 2022).  Mitole has had half of his 142 juvenile foals start and 23 of them have won (second most in his crop – only behind his farm mate, Maximus Mischief).  This runner’s Street Sense dam showed some precocity by winning her second start, although she didn’t go on to score again.  His work outs have been strong – I especially liked his last time out over the CD strip (he looked very professional) – and I like that he’s had a dozen of them (46 total furlongs).  I would have liked to see more than one breeze at five panels from him, but many signs point to this fella making a big first effort.  

What do you say we wrap up this Sunday with a ‘W’?  We’ve got one more week at Churchill, so let’s finish strong!  Take care and be safe, my Edgie Compadres. 

Contributing Authors

The 2YO Edge Man, Past The Wire

The 2YO EdgeMan

The 2YO EdgeMan started following horse racing when his family moved to Louisville, KY when he was 9 years old.  The story goes that he...

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