2024 First-Crop Sire Preview

January 17, 2024

Wednesday, January 17, 2024

By 2YO EdgeMan

One of the many joys of following two-year-old racing is the opportunity to analyze the new sires that come on the scene yearly. And the stallions with their first crop of runners this year are exciting, as always. 

Later this winter, we’ll give you our prediction for which debut sires we feel will be the most impactful and lead the way in this year’s class. Last year, we did quite well in our First-Crop Sire prognosis, and we’ll break down those results for you, too. But for this piece, we’ll take a quick look at some of the most interesting dads who started their stud career back in 2021.

From a count standpoint, there are 31 newbie, U.S. sires with a 2024 stud fee of $5,000 or more who will have their first runners hit the track later this year. Of those, five have a fee of $20,000 and above, 13 are advertised at $10,000 or above, and 22 are listed for $6,000 or greater.

The ‘top five’ (by 2024 stallion fee) are Authentic ($50,000, standing at Spendthrift), McKinzie ($30,000 / Gainesway), War of Will ($25,000 / Claiborne), Game Winner ($20,000 / Lane’s End), and Tiz the Law ($20,000 / Ashford Stud). These five freshmen are followed by Improbable (WinStar Farm), Vekoma (Spendthrift), and Volatile (Three Chimneys) who are each earning $15,000 per mating. 

Authentic conformation photo courtesy of Spendthrift Farm.

The winner of the 2020 Kentucky Derby, run in September of that year because of the Covid outbreak – Authentic – earned a total of $7.2 million in his eight starts, including being named Horse of the Year and Champion Three-Year-Old Male in 2020. He won his only start as a 2YO, capturing a two-year-old Maiden Special Weight affair at Del Mar on 11/9/2019. He is sired by the great Into Mischief and his broodmare sire is Mr. Greeley and has 160 two-year-olds.

McKinzie banked nearly $3.5 million in his racing career and scored in at least one Grade 1 event at ages 2, 3, and 4. He ended up in the Winner’s Circle eight times in the 18 starts that he made through age 5 and logged a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure 11 times. He is by Street Sense and his dam was sired by Petionville. Just like Authentic, he was conditioned by Bob Baffert. His initial class of runners totals 170 babies.

The versatile War of Will captured Grade 1 events on both Turf and Dirt (including the 2019 Preakness Stakes) while cashing checks for almost $2 million. He sported an overall 5 for 18 race record for trainer Mark Casse. His pops is the wonderful War Front and he was thrown from a mare by Sadler’s Wells. This guy has 113 juveniles in this year’s first class of runners.

Again, we’re working through all of the stats for this class of sires to put our predictions together into a detailed piece and get it published by the great PastTheWire.com before the babies hit the track in early April. 

Please stay safe and warm, my frigid Edgies. 

@jonathanstettin u should really do a 2 minute Past The Wire recorded segment for @Steve_Byk Monday Morning. Very grounded, excellent stuff

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