Thank you to all who attended our 2016 Preakness Picks and Analysis Webinar. We had people from all over the country, and even a few from other countries. It’s great to see that kind of interest in The Sport of Kings, and Past the Wire. We covered an awful lot of information. We hope you found it helpful and informative, but most of all hope it helps you make some money.
We have two wide open days of racing to cover and go after. There are some large competitive fields and plenty of opportunities. Here we go:
Mark DiLorenzo Jr. – Preakness Weekend Picks and Analysis
#5 Ol’ Fashion Gal: This is the Casse horse to beat. Getting better and will sit perfect trip. Great improving sheet line I love.
#12 Heath: Last was a prep. Most talented horse in race but tough post.
#2 Peace Prize: Beat boys in Europe. Closed into slow pace first time in America.
#8 Josdesanimaux: Can handle softer footing and very versitle no matter where he sits outta the gate.
#5 American Freedom: 5-2: Proven in slop. Baffert called him his Haskell horse. Had legit excuses on Derby Day.
#3 Kingslayer: Ran huge sheet number in slop two back. I think this field is soft, has a shot.
#7 Dazzling Gem: Everyone paid attention to Mo Tom being checked but DG didn’t get great start.
#4 Voluntario 10-1 was on inside bias last time out but should improve again like he has in the past 2nd time out and is just as fast as favorites.
#14 Gettysburg: Gets the way outside again. Could be class of the race but has work cut out for him
#4 Takeover Target: Expecting soft turf. Shows me he has liked it in the past and is just as fast as many of these. Getting back to preferred distance IMO and should be nice price.
#7 Grand Arch: Super classy can run off the layoff. Also likes soft turf.
#8 Prince Gagarin: Has run vs some very nice Euros. Lasix helped big time in last and can handle soft going.
#11 Force the Pass: Very game vs Divisidero, ran a winning race. Tough post but could be one to beat.
#5 Conquest Typhoon
#1 Long of Value
Race 13: The Preakness
#2 Uncle Lino 20-1: Has pedigree to go long. Might steal lead from nice post and stay there. Will be huge price, and will wheel with Nyquist and Exaggerator.
#3 Nyquist: One to beat. Perfect sheet line, ULTRA talented
#5 Exaggerator: Everyone knows he loves the slop. Also has great sheet line. Will get bet down in slop but can’t play to win as I think Nyquist is the better horse.
#9 Abiding Star: Another that could steal on front end. Pedigree is for MUDDers through and through
Marc Verderame, OTMB Preakness Weekend Picks and Analysis:
Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes
#5 Ahh Chocolate 5-1
I think Hernandez gets aggressive here on a horse Brian has had to restrain from going in the past. I think she sits just off #4 Mei Ling and gets first jump. I’ll go 5-4-1
#5 Miss Katie Mae
Second off the bump from the Emerald Isle and she got zero pace to run into in the States debut. Gets Irad and has been working well; runs huge here.
Race 5: #3 Always Sunshine
James W. Murphy Stakes
#8 Aquaphobia 4-1
These Giant Causeway’s really appreciate the soft going and this horse can close. Look for a key effort here in the third race with Julian aboard.
#9 Mizz Money 9-2
Has appreciated soft going in the past and should be on a very lonely lead. You have to love the switch to Castellano and she most likely makes every pole a winning one.
#11 Stradivari 10-1
Pletcher is out for blood in The Preakness as his top shelf horse finally is fit and ready to roll. Stradivari was always highly touted for TAP, but numerous setbacks held this one off the trail. After breaking his maiden in the slop at Gulfstream, and a monster win at Keeneland, Todd landed here in a spot where he wouldn’t be unless he really believed he could win. Johnny V should have him and a good spot and turning for home we will see if he can pass the Triple Crown test.
Jonathan Stettin The Pick 6 King Analysis and Picks:
The first is #8, Fantastic Style in the 3rd race on Friday. This starts a pick 4, and is a single in my book. The 5th race which is the 3rd leg of the sequence has another single, the #9, Tale of Life. Too much for these in my book. I’ll use two horses to close, the #4, Sunnysammi, who should be favored and deservedly so. I’ll also use the #2, Seattle n Speight. She looks dangerous first time turf to me for a dangerous barn. That leaves a lot of room to spread in the 4th race and maybe catch something long, but I just don’t see those other races as deep spread races at all. It’s either pass or take what it is in my opinion.In The Pimlico Special I like the #1 Page McKenny. A local horse or two usually pops up Preakness weekend and this could be the one. I fear #5 Idolo Porteno to the point I can’t leave him out. I’ve been high on him since he got to Oaklawn, and I know his connections were as well. His race on the dirt at Oaklawn was encouraging, but last out on the grass was a major disappointment. Even though Upstart didn’t flatter his dirt effort in Hot Springs, I’ll give him one more chance and use with Page McKenney.
In the 10th race on Friday, I’ll be using the #7 Thundering Sky. I think she should be around 15 or 20-1 and can definitely get into the exotics if not win outright. She may not be a single, but she’s live and a must use for me.
In The Black Eyed Susan (11th race) I like the #5 Go Maggie Go. I’ll be using with the two other horses I like, both long shots, the #2 Dothraki Queen who has some good hidden form, and the #8 Double Entendre. If Peter Walder thinks she can compete, that’s a big vote of confidence. I know he wished he had more time with her before her last start when thrown to the wolves, and now he has.
On Saturday I’m a little deeper in some spots. I do have two singles, or at worst one race I may go two deep so things should be Ok with some big opportunities.
I’ll start the pick 5 in race 9 with the #6 Counterforce. I’m scared of the #7 Big Louie D off the layoff, but not enough to include him.
In the 10th race my top choice is the #12 Heath, but that post is killer. I’m going to spread here. I think the #8 Josdesanimeaux is on the improve, the #3 Tiger Ride fits, and the #9 Mizz Money is dangerous speed. Those are my primary contenders but I will also through in the #’s 1,4, and 5. So on my big ticket I’ll have 1,3,4,5,8,9, and 12.
The 11th race is also a total spread race to me. I’m using 1,3,4,5,7,8,9,10, and 14. I’m not a fan of the all button but if you are and used it here you’d get no argument from me.
In the 12th race I’ll likely single the #7 Grand Arch. He loves the distance. He loves wet or soft turf. He runs great fresh. His best races are as good or better than anyone in here. That’s where I land. If I decide to add one other horse it will be the #4 Takeover Target. He is on the improve and loves wet turf.
With the single in the 12th, or even if I go two deep there, it gives me room in The Preakness and I am going to take it. “As tough as Nyquist is, this is the first time in all his starts he shows a possible bounce pattern.” He went from a 3 to a 0- on Thoro-Graph, a new top from his previous best which was a 2. He may regress and while I can’t toss him, and have tons of respect for him and his connections, I’ve got to spread looking to beat him. I’ll be using 1,2,3,5,7,11. There is a lot of pace in here and it sets up for a closer and that looks like Cherry Wine who has a win in the slop. Collected is bred for the slop and will be in the catbirds seat for relatively new client Bob Baffert, who you know he wants to win for. He’s probably my top choice. With the pace and off track if Exaggerator can’t make it 1 for 5 against Nyquist now, well we can finally say he’s just not as good a horse. All that said, Nyquist still doesn’t get the respect he deserves for his resume in my opinion, nor do his connections. They do from me and I would love to see (betting aside) Nyquist going for another Triple Crown a year after the 37 year drought was finally broken. The 70’s gave us three, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed. They said it was too easy, make it harder. Riva Ridge but for a sloppy track Preakness day, could have given us four in the 70’s, and Spectacular Bid, if not for an early move into a fast pace, and the “safety pin” incident might have given us 5 in the 70’s. Then they said it was too hard as we waited for American Pharoah. It’s fine, it just takes the right horse and connections.
Good luck everybody. Enjoy these competitive races and nice horses. Always go with your opinion and use these selections and analysis as a guide. Factor it in with your own thoughts and hopefully you put together a winning strategy.Thank you all again for attending our webinar. We have a great one planned for Belmont Day and the championship card. We will have an early registration up as soon as Monday or Tuesday to make sure it is affordable for anyone who wants to attend. Military and former Military members are always invited free. We’ll have some new features, and I have hit some nice pick 6’s and pick 4’s on Belmont Day which we’ll talk about during betting strategies, as we try and nail this year’s.