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Muth takes the San Vicente (G2) Jan. 6 at Santa Anita (Ernie Belmonte/Past The Wire)
By Laura Pugh
When it comes to super weekends, this would be the ultimate super weekend for Kentucky Derby/Oaks prep races. Two Kentucky Derby preps are taking place in the United States, and they are among the most productive preps in history; The Arkansas and Florida Derbies. Then, if that wasn’t enough, the UAE Derby taking place in the Middle East, which always sends over some interesting talents.
Will the 150th Kentucky Derby winner come from any of these races? Let’s take a look into my crystal ball and find out.
Time for Truth & Muth Turn Heads
Outside of Time for Truth and Muth, there doesn’t appear to be an abundance of speed in this particular spot. Mystik Dan has shown speed in the past, but his best performance, to date, came in the sloppy Southwest Stakes, where he ran midpack. As impressive as he looked that day, the horses from that race haven’t come back to do overly well.
Muth is likely the fastest of the Arkansas Derby entrants, but with Time for Truth to his inside, it’s possible that he will sit off the pace like he did in the San Vicente Stakes. Should that happen, I don’t see anyone else fast enough to take the lead from Time for Truth.
What makes these two dangerous is that even though both have plenty of early speed, they have both shown the ability to track the pace if the situation warrants it. Time for Truth holds a slight edge for me here because of the unusual amount of confidence his trainer has. Ron Moquett is not one to put his horses in spots they are outmatched, in fact, he’s normally pretty conservative. In Time for Truth’s case, he pointed the son of Omaha Beach to the 1 1/16th miles Rebel Stakes, despite only having two six-furlong races to his career.
The only reason the colt was scratched was due to a minor shin injury that occurred the night before the race. He was then rerouted to an allowance the next week, March 2nd, and won handily, despite not having a published work since Feb. 18th.
The Arkansas Derby represents a steep class test, as the Rebel would have, but Moquett seems confident that his colt can handle the likes of Muth and Timberlake.
Selections: Time for Truth, Muth, Timberlake, Liberal Arts
Forever Young Dominates
I was not, I repeat NOT a fan of how Forever Young won the Saudi Derby. He hung on the wrong lead and seemed like he was struggling to get going through most of the race, after never having much of a challenge in his prior starts.
However, I have watched his previous races and after studying the Japan colt some more, I believe I was too harsh a judge. His first two starts were at 1800 meters, about 9 furlongs. His third start was at the same 1600-meter (about a mile) distance of the Saudi Derby, but had a grand total of four turns.
Why is this important?
When watching the Saudi Derby, it’s quite evident that Forever Young was left looking flat-footed by his American opponents, especially Book’Em Danno. Forever Young needed every single bit of the length of the stretch to run down that opponent. Originally, I thought it was due to him struggling with the surface or not being as good as billed. Now, I’m leaning towards him needing more distance/time to do his best running.
If that is the case, the approximately 1 3/16ths miles of the UAE Derby will be just what the doctor ordered. The son of Real Steel isn’t unbeaten for nothing. So far he’s won around multiple track configurations, coming from almost anywhere in the field. This versatility will serve him well, and the only thing that anyone could question is if he’s good enough.
He’ll need to overcome a wide post, 13, and outrun some new American opponents, but if he enjoys the added distance the way I think, win so emphatically that he’ll give Japan their most anticipated shot at a Kentucky Derby win yet.
“Yes, Hades Rules!”
This race took me a while to break down. It’s not as deep as the Arkansas Derby, with just three main contenders, but all three have loads of talent with much to prove.
Fierceness is as talented as they come and has shown he’s capable of running off the charts. I do think he’s primed for a rebound off a disappointing Holy Bull, where he made a menacing move, but flattened in the stretch. He looked as though he was short in that race, and given his works, I don’t think that will be an issue on Saturday.
Conquest Warrior, trained by Shug McGaughey, is facing a massive acid test. His highest class test to date has been an allowance race. He won that day by five, giving all the looks of a good thing, and his trainer isn’t one to throw his hat in a ring unless he thinks he has a good chance. His works leading up to this race have been impressive, but I’m thinking his inexperience might be his Achilles’ heel in the Florida Derby.
Hades is the third major player, but I think it’s entirely possible he gets overlooked. His race in the Holy Bull was slow on paper, but figure-wise, he’s right in the mix of the top preps this season, indicating that the track was slow on Holy Bull day. He’s undefeated, but most will think he’s vulnerable against the new shooter and more prepared Fierceness, especially if he is forced to go quicker early on, should Seminole Chief decide to apply some early pressure.
I think counting Hades out will be a big mistake. As much as I anticipate a much-improved performance from Fierceness, I truly believe that Hades has been running to his competition. He was flattered when Domestic Product, second in the Holy Bull, rallied to score in the Tampa Bay Derby, and he’s been working like a beast. As good as the other two have looked, I like how Hades looked even more. The way he has been finishing his workouts looks nothing short of explosive, which is why he will remain my top choice for this spot.
Selections: Hades, Fierceness, Conquest Warrior, Grand Mo the First
Final Thoughts
There are a lot of big names running this weekend and firmly believe that we will see the cream rise to the top. As talented as Forever Young looks to be, I still think that he has a tough road to travel, using the path of the UAE Derby to prep for the Run for the Roses.
The Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby, on the other hand, have a strong history of being productive preps. I do think the Arkansas is the deeper of the two preps, and I do think the horses in it have tremendous potential to run big on Kentucky Derby day, but I think the most likely to produce our 150th Kentucky Derby victor, will be the Florida Derby.
