Magnitude went the distance to take the Stephen Foster, Jenny Doyle/ Past The Wire
Ed Cofino
The Stephen Foster was billed as one of the best races of the year, and it delivered. Four of the top older male horses were entered, including reigning Horse of the Year Sovereignty. There were a few scratches, and rain made the track sloppy, but the show went on and didn’t disappoint.
Odds: Sovereignty 4/5 | White Abarrio 5/1 (ML 3/1) | Magnitude 5/2 (ML 7/2) | Baeza 5/1
Late money came in on Magnitude in the final minutes before post. Perhaps it was due to @jonathanstettin’s @pastthewire preview of the race and his predictions, you can check it out for yourself on Past The Wire TV on our YouTube channel. He laid out exactly why he picked Magnitude to win and called the race right on point. This was a true test of the top four older horses by just about any metric.
Baeza missed the break while Magnitude broke on top — though not without drama, as he broke through the gate early, never a good sign. White Abarrio and Sovereignty tracked closely behind. Magnitude ran solid fractions — 47.38, 1:10.90, 1:48.03 final time for 1 1/8 miles — and made it look easy. He had a clear lead throughout with no pressure at any point. Baeza rallied to finish second, closing nicely to end up just over a length behind. Sovereignty ran third but was never a threat, and White Abarrio faded to a distant fourth.
What Does It Mean Moving Forward?
Prior to the race, the NTRA Top 5 Older Male Thoroughbred Poll stood as follows:
1. Nysos
2. Magnitude
3. White Abarrio
4. Sovereignty
5. Forever Young
After the Stephen Foster, the updated NTRA Top 5 looks like this:
1. Magnitude
2. Nysos
3. Sovereignty
4. White Abarrio
5. Baeza
These are just my opinions, so take them for what they’re worth.
Magnitude is the real deal, an improving horse still finding his ceiling. I’ve already seen some top public handicappers label him a bet-against whenever he runs next against the top older males. I’ll let that play out as the year moves forward.
Baeza is getting better, but hasn’t quite figured it all out yet and always seems to come with an excuse. Should he finally put it all together, he becomes a very formidable horse.
White Abarrio is a phenomenal animal, still racing at 7 with four Grade 1 wins and multiple graded stakes to his credit. That said, his best days may be behind him. It could be time to retire him and send him to stud.
Sovereignty may have peaked as a 3-year-old and could have some difficulty staying in consistent training to maintain peak performance. We’ll know more soon enough.
Forever Young didn’t run, but Magnitude did beat him in Dubai. That said, Forever Young has proven he’s a top-class horse, and frankly he’s ranked a bit too low by the NTRA for my liking. He’d be in my top three.
Nysos is the only horse on this list that Magnitude has never beaten, but only because they’ve never met. That means nothing other than the fact that they’re both extremely talented horses, and hopefully one day they’ll share a racetrack and put on a show.
All told, this is a very good group of older males, and others who deserve to be in the conversation. Book ‘Em Danno, Deterministic, Skippylongstocking, and Forged Steel, to name a few.
As horseplayers, we should relish watching these top older males continue their careers at four and beyond. What was once the norm is now an anomaly, so enjoy it while we can.
Summertime is here and there are great races ahead for this group. Let’s hope they all stay healthy and keep putting on a show for racing fans and horseplayers alike through the rest of the year.
Eduardo (Eddie C) Cofino
