Sister Troienne, On Time Girl and Nearly Highlight Saturday’s CHR from Past The Wire
If You Know You Know
Fresh off a not too shabby Pegasus our CHR delivers yet again. This was from last week’s Pegasus. Our Holy Bull day full report is below for your review!
RACE SCENARIOS
MOST LIKELY (55%): White Abarrio Prevails, PLACE SAFETY:
SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING – 2 units to place at 5-1 or better
Excellent track record, should hit board
Big Race Jim here with some Saturday scores to share.
The Past The Wire Comprehensive Handicapping Report (CHR) identified 3 outright winners this weekend across 7 stakes races at Gulfstream and Santa Anita.
Here’s how it went down:
GULFSTREAM PARK:
Sweet Chant Stakes – WIN Sister Troienne dominated. We projected her at 48% win probability, the clear class of this field with four straight wins including the Ginger Brew Stakes. She rated three-wide under a hold, took over at the five-sixteenths marker, and drew clear by 3¾ lengths while in hand. We passed on the win bet due to prohibitive odds, but had her #1 in our multi-race wager section.
Forward Gal Stakes (G3) – WIN We made On Time Girl our win bet at a projected 3-1. Our model gave her a 28% win probability in a pace setup that screamed closer. Cox/Ortiz combo, nine-week freshening, career-best Beyer coming in. She stalked three-wide, tipped out in the stretch, and drew off by 3½ lengths.
Our secondary play Sneaky Good hit the board in 3rd.
Holy Bull Stakes (G3) – WIN
Nearly was our top selection at a projected 6-5. Undefeated at Gulfstream, Pletcher/Velazquez firing, sprint-to-route angle with a pace setup that collapsed the speed. He dueled outside down the backstretch and kicked clear at the quarter pole for an 8¾-length victory.
Kitten’s Joy Stakes – MULTI-RACE SELECTION WIN Thousandsticks won and was our #2 selection in the multi-race wager section (22% win probability). We didn’t make him our primary win bet, but the CHR identified him as a major player. He prompted the pace two-wide, inched clear on the turn, and held off Redland Rebels in a long drive.
Swale Stakes – PLACE We made Class President our win bet at projected 7-2 in a suicidal pace scenario. Solitude Dude won (he was our #1 multi-race selection at 42% win probability, but we passed on the win bet due to price at 4-5). Class President ran exactly to our script. He stalked inside, couldn’t match the winner, but ran a solid second.
SANTA ANITA:
Megahertz Stakes (G3) – PLACE Our win bet Vibez ran second. We had her as our #2 multi-race selection (22% win probability) and highlighted her as the proven course/distance specialist (won the Swingate Stakes at this exact trip), dropping from G1 company. She closed from 7th, rallied four-wide, and got up for place money in a nose photo.
Our secondary play Will Then grabbed third.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
The CHR isn’t about picking every favorite. It’s about finding value and identifying the horses that matter in every race.
✅ 3 outright winners identified
✅ 2 win bets that both paid (On Time Girl $4.20, Nearly $5.40)
✅ Multiple exactas and trifectas with our top selections
✅ Top-3 multi-race selections hitting across the board
When you’re getting winners at $4.20 and $5.40 that the model projected at shorter prices, you’re playing with an edge. When your top multi-race selections are winning at $3.00 and $8.60, you’re covering the right horses in your horizontals.
This is what data-driven handicapping looks like.
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Plenty of stakes action this week including a few Kentucky Derby and Oaks preps. Don’t miss it.
Our Holy Bull Day CHR with Santa Anita included:
Let’s cash some tickets,
Big Race Jim
Past the Wire
