Saratoga Betting: All Win = No Win

July 15, 2016

The New York Racing Association, aka NYRA, have changed the rules governing the pick 4, 5, and 6 beginning with the start of the Saratoga meet next week. While many are applauding and welcoming the change, and NYRA is promoting is as “bettor friendly”, I am not so sure. Frankly it’s another example of racetracks failing to know their customers wants and needs. As a long time major pick 6 player I think I can speak with expertise on this subject. Additionally, I’ve ventured into the pick 4 and 5 arena to speak with equal experience and knowledge there.

I’ll be the first to admit when I actually looked up the new rules and read them, I did so in a cursory fashion. Typical governmental legislative type language, the type attorneys don’t mind reading but I’d sooner have an attorney read for me and just ask what does it mean. It wasn’t difficult to read or comprehend, it just could not compete with the opening day Del Mar past performances.

The new Saratoga betting rules are not as bettor friendly as their supporters would have you believe. The focal point is now, when a race is moved off the turf due to weather, after the sequence has begun, you are no longer stuck with the betting favorite to replace a late scratch, regardless of how you feel about their chances, or whether you already had them as another selection, and now would like an additional horse instead. When a race is taken off the turf after a multi-race betting sequence has begun, it is one of the most frustrating thing for bettors. Everything about the race has now been changed, and you, “the investor” who put up the money, are at the mercy of rules which seem to be based on what’s easiest, rather than what is best for you. That’s bad business, and surely not looking out for the customer, or dare we say gambler.

Under the new rule, and this will apply to the pick 4, 5, or 6, when a race is taken off the turf, regardless of scratches, it becomes an all win. What a deceptive term, as often you can “win” nothing. While most bettors hated the old rule, and loathed being stuck with a favorite they did not like, or perhaps already had, once they get familiar with this new rule they will likely hate it just as much. The all win rule means whoever you, or anyone else for that matter has in the race wins. That means a lot more winners. It can also mean a lot more winners for you if you used multiple horses in that particular race of the sequence. If you think that will increase the payoff to offset all those all win tickets, good luck. If you have multiple horses, chances are you spent a decent amount of money on your ticket, and even if you hit the sequence with the “all win” rule, you may lose money. That’s as bad a scenario as any, hitting a sequence, and losing money on the payoff. If your horse happens to win the “all win” race, and especially if it was a single or your top choice, you may feel a slight sting after the race. That’s just logic, reason, and intelligence messing with you for getting involved in the sequence to begin with. Fight through that, or it will haunt you for many future wagers. All win stinks, it’s no better than getting the favorite, maybe even worse, and is going to really sting some mid-range and larger bettors on occasion. There is no question about it. Yes, there are solutions and alternatives which could have been implemented if this was really about what’s best for you. It isn’t. it’s masqueraded as being better for the bettor, but it really isn’t.

What’s better for the bettor, is the bettor’s choice, not racetrack managers and IT departments who want to do what is easiest, or politicians, who want to do what is best for them. The first solution: if a race is taken off the turf after wagering closes for a multi-race sequence, announce it, then delay post time 10-15 minutes and give bettors the option of cancelling their tickets. The technology certainly exists. You can do it through your ADW or at the track, and get the refund you are due. It’s your money, and you should have the wager you made into the sequence you made, or the option to opt out. If you choose not to, or fail to, then let the house “all win” rule apply. This way it is the bettor’s choice as it should be. You should not have a wager or horse rammed down your throat you didn’t make or want.

Solution two in what is better for the bettor: allow an alternative selection in each race, and surface switch selections. Again, if you fail to or choose not to exercise the option, then house rules apply and you are stuck with “all win” or “all lose” depending on your point of view. This puts you in control of your wager and allows you, as the investor, to anticipate the factors that can change everything going forward. It’s only fair. It’s not the easiest and it may not be perfect, but it’s what is best for you the customer.

While reading the new rule, I looked over some old ones. Some are interesting. For example, let’s say you bet a pick 4 and hit the first leg with a 25-1 shot. You have good coverage going forward and you want to sell your ticket to a willing and ready buyer. Against the rules. It can get you barred or worse. One question, why? The same applies for a pick 5 or 6. Again, why? It would seem there are way more important issues than that. Granted I’ve never seen the rule enforced, and the truest gamblers would not want to sell the ticket, but you should be able to.

Another interesting rule involves a scratch in a pick 4,5, or 6, but not due to a surface change. Of course the scratch must occur after wagering for the sequence closes. You get the favorite, and if two horses are tied for favoritism, you get the one with the lower program number in the pick 5 or 6. In the pick 4 it’s a little different. In that scenario if two horses are tied for favorite, you move to the horse with the most place money, and lowest program number. Why not the highest program number? Why differentiate the sequences? Why not the favorite, and if there is a tie, then the most win, place , and show total?

Nice Time of Year

I don’t know if there is a better time of year for bettors in The Sport of Kings than mid-July through August. Actually I know there isn’t. Sure, the Breeders’ Cup is the premier event, and of course there is nothing like The Kentucky Derby, and all three of those days provide turf speculators a smorgasbord of potentially lucrative wagering opportunities. We have other days too, like Belmont Stakes Day, and maybe a dozen or so other isolated days at various racetracks across the USA that provide great competitive racing, and a plethora of chances at major scores. What makes this time of year special and different than all other times of the year, is we have two of the best meets, loaded with great racing, big fields and pools, running simultaneously. We all know despite the technological advances in communication, racetracks across the country can’t figure out how to keep big or key races from running at the same time, thus forcing the player to miss one live or altogether. It’s frustrating as we all know. Not this time of year. These two meets, Saratoga and Del Mar enjoy the luxury of being on opposite coasts, thus not running head to head so to speak. Sure there is Keeneland and Kentucky Downs, each fantastic meets, having that special feel to go along with the racing, and of course the wagering opportunities, but Saratoga and Del Mar, are just that, Saratoga and Del Mar. Even their regular days have the electricity of the super cards other tracks run from time to time.

Del Mar opens first by a week on July 15th, 2016. Most of the focus of the racing world will be on these two meets, and with good reason. You will see world class racing, and world class wagering opportunities. While the Del Mar trainers’ landscape has not changed much this year, with the usual mainstays expected to do their usual damage, the jockey colony has a new look and feel. Flavien Prat who is riding very well, and starting to pad his resume and become recognized nationally, looks poised and in position to have a good meet. Veteran Jaime Theriot, primarily a Louisiana and Kentucky rider for much of his career has recently moved his tack to Southern California, and will be trying his first Del Mar meet.

Game Face
Norberto Arroyo Jr. Game Face

An interesting addition to the Del Mar colony is Norberto Arroyo Jr. Norberto has had success wherever he has ridden, and has ridden on some of the biggest stages. After being out of racing for a long time, he returned and showed he hadn’t lost a step dominating Turfway Park in Kentucky. This should have come as no surprise, as Norberto had competed successfully on the toughest of New York and California circuits. He also went to Oaklawn Park, and dominated there, before having another layoff. Most recently he has come back and ridden in New Mexico, winning his share of races.  His focus is on his strengthened Faith and  working on his ultimate goal, returning to the big stage.
IMG_4302I recently had the opportunity to speak with Norberto about his career and plans. While I was riding in New Mexico I was riding with a goal in mind. I wanted to get back in top shape, and I am there. I wanted to get my timing and rhythm back, and I found that came back almost immediately. I’m thankful to God to have another opportunity to ride, and I plan on making the most of it with every mount. I knew I wouldn’t stay in New Mexico, but it was a great place to re-start my career, and hopefully take it to an even higher level”.

IMG_4303I asked Norberto how the reception at Del Mar has been, and what his plans for the future are. “The reception has been wonderful, better than I could have hoped for. I am working a lot of horses in the morning, and for a lot of really good barns. I ride the stake opening day, and I am getting calls for the days ahead. I’m happy about it and plan to keep working harder than anybody in the morning, and trying to establish myself out here. I feel great out here, like a whole new opportunity and chance. I am anxious to get out there with the best of them, and God willing land a few nice horses”.

If Norberto gets his chance, I have little doubt he’ll deliver, he always has. His riding skill was never in question, and it’s nice to see him renewed and get another shot.

Saratoga looks like the mainstays will be dominant once again, in both the trainer and jockey categories. Both the Ortiz brothers should have strong meets. Florent Geroux is an interesting new addition to the jockey colony. As tough as it is to break into Saratoga, we expect Florent to hold his own. He has been riding great, and we pegged him right here in Past the Wire as the most improved rider in the country two years ago before the whole racing world realized it. Many have come to Saratoga, paid for a house for the meet, and left early, Florent should stay the trip.

High Five:

IMG_4297How about Chris Emigh. He goes down in a spill at Arlington, and pictures are worth a thousand words. Jockeys are tough, and Chris is as tough as any.

IMG_4299While many of us would be in tears, Chris is all thumbs up,

“I’ll be back. Got beat up a little bit but all good. Thanks for the prayers. Few fractures and stitched up but nothing serious. God Bless”.

IMG_4300He failed to mention his concussion. Tough guy, and by the way he can ride too. I always tell him there is a big one with his name on it. There is little doubt there is, and it’s well deserved.

Low Five

The all win rule. It should be the all lose rule. Just ask the Golden Gate carryover chasers.

@Tracking_Trips amazing amazing amazing

Jimmy Williams @matt918476 View testimonials

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