Undefeated Victory Formation, likely favorite in the G2 Risen Star (Coady Photography)
By Ross Blacker
Instead of focusing on one race this week, I have decided to attack and hopefully take down the Fair Grounds Late Pick 5 on Louisiana Derby Preview Day. What attracted me to the sequence was that all five races are of the stakes variety, four graded stakes, and there appear to be a few spots where we can go skinny when constructing a ticket.
However, with every horizontal wager the key to cashing and maximizing profits is to find value. In my estimation, there are a few spots here that lend themselves to non-favorites crossing the wire first.
My plan with this is to first analyze the races and then, and of equal importance, focus on ticket construction.
First Leg: Colonel Power Stakes (Race 9) About 5.5F on turf
The weather in New Orleans will be chilly but dry so I fully expect this race to stay on the turf. The rails will be out which is customary at Fair Grounds. According to reports the 2 horse here, Twirling Roses, will not run and the 9 Evan Sing, one of five AE’s, draws in.
Favorite in the race is Surveillance (8). I have some questions about this horse. It’s hard to knock his recent form, three wins in a row and Beyers all exceeding 95, with a 102 mixed in there. Horse’s running style is to stalk and pounce and at this distance that is a tried-and-true strategy. The question I have with this one is that he’s done most of his running lately (last 7 starts) on the dirt and now switches to the grass where he will be a short price.
Unfortunately, and we will get to it later, this may be the type of horse that will have to be used defensively on the final ticket. Keith Desormeaux has made this move six times, going dirt to turf in sprints at FG, and is 0-for-6 with a pair of in-the-money finishes.
A horse I really like here is Evan Sing (9). Is somewhat proven as a turf sprinter and gets the services of Flavien Prat. One concern on this gelding is that he tends to be pretty far back and has lots of work to do. On paper, there appears to be a preponderance of speed but I’d like to see him sitting closer.
In addition to Evan Sing, there are a few other horses which figure to take money that are making their seasonal debuts and are coming off layoffs. Ice Chocolat (1), All in Sync (3) and Angaston (7) who actually has not been seen since June of 2021, all are coming in on full rest.
Of those three, I tend to side with All in Sync, although he has the same pace profile as the other horse I truly fancy Evan Sing. Since being transitioned to the green, this guy has run a pair of Beyer tops (94 and 91) and I feel as though he just needs a trip in here to be a major factor. Am really a fan of Tyler Gaffalione on sprinters on any surface especially when it becomes a jockey’s race and there’s a premium on decision-making.
Manny Wah (6) has to be mentioned here. I just don’t like this horse in this spot. A familiar name to many because he has run 37 times, this Wayne Catalano trainee has only won five times and is far from a proven commodity on the grass. Hard pass for me on Manny Wah here.
One final horse that deserves a mention is the defending champ in this race, Pyron (4). Last year, he was in good form coming into the spot and took advantage of a swift pace to close hard at the end. Since the victory, not only has he not won but his best finish has been fifth in four starts, including two absolute clunkers. Workouts have not been outstanding and I just feel like the best days are behind this 7-year-old son of Candy Ride.
Second Leg: Grade III Mineshaft Stakes (Race 10) 8.5F on dirt
The Mineshaft shapes up as an event with a ton of early speed. Generally, when putting together a ticket or even just straight handicapping a race, it’s important to include horses on a ticket that have different running styles.
Starting from the rail, let’s focus on Hoist the Gold (1) for Dallas Stewart who is stretching out (a 10% win and a 36% ITM move for Stewart) and does get considerable class relief, coming off an on-the-board finish in the Grade I Malibu. Looking at the running lines, this guy has lost to Tejano Twist, Gunite and 2022 Eclipse Champion Sprinter Elite Power. Certainly an intriguing horse given the class drop and the fact that his last five Beyers have all been 90-plus.
Tawny Port (3) is a horse that won both the Lexington and Ohio Derby last year and I’d argue that his best race was the Jim Dandy where he only lost by two lengths to Epicenter and Zandon, finishing third.
No doubt the Pennsylvania Derby was a regression but now the son of Pioneerof the Nile gets a freshening is reunited with Florent Geroux. This could be one poised for a successful and profitable 4-year old campaign and it starts here.
Happy American (6) is the type of horse that in this spot you need to have a strong opinion on one way or the other. I just feel as though he is a defensive use given his recent success at the track and it’s not like he’s facing monsters today.
The horse next door Pioneer of Medina (7) danced a ton of dances as a three-year-old and actually cemented his place in the Run for the Roses right here at Fair Grounds. This guy could be on the improve as anytime a horse pops a 100-plus Beyer, bettors need to take notice. The reason I say he is not a bounce candidate is that he did run a 92 in the start before. This is another one that could emerge as a major player in the older horse handicap division and we don’t want to be late to the bandwagon.
Of the two outside horses, Mr. Wireless (8) and King Fury (9), King Fury is a straight toss for us and Mr. Wireless is under consideration. For one, his trainer Bret Calhoun is scorching hot at Fair Grounds this winter, hitting at 28% and secondly his Beyer numbers fit. However, he has not been able to get past Happy American and the moves coming into this one haven’t exactly been spectacular.
Third Leg: Grade III Fair Grounds Stakes (Race 11) 9F on turf
While the first two legs seem to be spread spots and the Risen Star, the final leg, is the epitome of one, the next two races on the sequence figure to be affairs that could feature short-priced victors.
To me, the two obvious horses to hone in on here are Two Emmys (2) and Gentle Soul (4). In addition to being the two most logical winners, they also bring the stalker/closer dynamic into play which as mentioned earlier is always helpful to have on a ticket.
The winner of the last Arlington Million (renamed to the Mr. D) even at Arlington Park, Two Emmys was caught at the wire by Gentle Soul in the Colonel Bradley, the local prep for this spot. Last two races have registered 99 and 97 on the Beyer scale and while trainer High Robertson is just 1-for-14 this meet at FG, he has struck at 24%, albeit in a somewhat small sample size, with James Graham over the past five years at Fair Grounds.
One thing I always like to consider on these big days is that local jockeys such as Graham tend to perform well to avoid being overshadowed by big-name out-of-town riders who seem to garner more of the bettors’ attention. Graham is a guy that has a proven track record at FG, knows this horse very well, and will no doubt be motivated to find the winner’s circle in this spot.
What makes Gentle Soul’s victory over the aforementioned Two Emmys last time out was that he closed into painfully slow (25 and 51) fractions. Obviously, everything that Calhoun touches is turning to gold and I am somewhat surprised that this one is 7/2 on the morning line.
The 99 Beyer last out is 10 points higher than any figure on his form which leads one to ask the bounce question. I just don’t see it given, with the exception of the race two back, some consistency and steady improvement as this one has prevailed in four of his last five, all with today’s rider Reylu Gutierrez on his back.
In fact, it appears that Fair Grounds morning linemaker Mike Diliberto did not know which way to go here and there’s no clear-cut morning line favorite. Unfortunately when playing a horizontal wager like this having the tote board and pools be your guide is a sheer impossibility. However, I would strong assert that Gentle Soul, especially if Calhoun wins a few races prior to this one, will go off as the favorite.
Two other horses at least bear mentioning: Corelli (7) and Bay Street Money (8). I really liked the Jonathan Thomas-trained Corelli in his comeback at Gulfstream in last January after 14 months on the bench. The horse went off favored that day and in watching the replay the spot was the classic “horse needed a race” scenario.
It now begs the question if he got enough out of that spot and is fully cranked shipping in against a pair of horses on in Two Emmys and Gentle Soul who not only have better recent efforts but are extremely familiar with Fairgrounds. Jonathan Thomas is a guy I trust generally but this guy is only 2-for-12 on the win end in North America and would really have to return to previous form and then improve on that to win here, just asking too much.
Bay Street Money took four starts to break his maiden is now in his third barn (Chad Brown, Rob Atras and now Mike Maker). However, he has been steadily improving in the lead up to his stakes debut and is under the care of a trainer known for incredible success when walking horses up the ladder.
This is almost a situation where you can either dismiss Mike Maker at your own risk or put the horse on the ticket, increase the ticket price and run the risk of getting beat by two logical horses. In watching the replay of the last race, it certainly will not command a spot on Joel Rosario’s highlight reel for a few reasons: 1) the pace was slow and he waited too long to move as he has a tendency to do 2) he switched paths multiple times down the lane and just never gave the horse a clear lane or clear target and hindered his mount’s momentum by the constant shifting. Plus, it wasn’t like he had to negotiate 10 or more horses, there were only 7 in the race.
Today, he gets a new rider in Tyler Gaffalione who has actually been on board for one maiden try. I think Gaffalione will steer clear of the trouble and put this guy in a position to potentially have a shot. The rail being out does not help this one’s chances. A stat that jumps out is that in grass stakes going long at Fair Grounds in the past five years, Maker is 0-for-18 on the win end with just two on-the-board finishes.
I can just foresee myself later in this space using this one defensively just because it’s Mike Maker on the grass.
Pure toss horse for me is one that has a lot of hype around him, Tiz the Bomb, just feel that given his connections and success as a two-year-old, this one continues to garner respect both at the betting window and on the morning line. No thanks for me.
Fourth Leg: Grade II Rachel Alexandra Stakes (Race 12) 8.5F on dirt
To me, this leg as the epitome of single and move on. Just include Hoosier Philly (2) on the ticket and proceed. While many in this short six-horse field are looking towards the Fair Grounds Oaks and the Kentucky Oaks, the connections of this one have nominated the daughter of Into Mischief to the male Triple Crown and are openly considering, depending on how today goes, a start in the Louisiana Derby.
If you look at this gal’s works they have been nothing short of sensational. The three moves leading up to this one have all been bullets and in fact, going back further six of the last seven morning moves have been best on the day and distance. Now, some detractors could dismiss this one has being a good workhorse whose Beyers (the high is 81) do not warrant the considerable hype surrounding this one.
In fact, this filly was the fourth choice in the Kentucky Derby when the fourth future’s book closed last weekend. Only Forte, the champion 2-year-old colt, and all other three-year-olds garnered more wagering attention.
I would say that these connections certainly know what they’re doing when it comes to talented fillies, look no further than former Amoss superstar Serengeti Empress, a past Kentucky Oaks victor. While some may consider it sacrilege to mention this filly in the same breath as Serengeti Empress, there is a striking similarity. After running in November of her 2-year-old campaign, granted it was a Breeder’s Cup race, Serengeti Empress came back off a freshening and romped home in the Rachel Alexandra. This gal is coming off a similar layoff and I’d even go as far to say that the 81 Beyer in the last was somewhat misleading since jockey Edgar Morales had a stranglehold on her down the lane.
Just as was the case with Graham, this is a spot for Edgar Morales to reward Amoss’s loyalty and perform at his best on a big stage with high-profile riders in the Big Easy.
So the scenario is this: short field, big favorite (surely will go off much lower than the 6/5 morning line figure), is it worth trying to get fancy and try to beat her? I just can’t see it. Chop Chop (4) is a nice horse but she’s burned money in her last two trips to the starting gate, failing as the favorite.
Now, just as was the case in the last race, it is problematic and risky to toss a Brad Cox horse (like it was Maker) in these types of spots. However, in relative terms, I just seem Hoosier Philly so much superior stacked up against this field where you can make a legitimate case that Two Emmys and Gentle Soul, while nice horses, do not stand out as much.
I personally think getting cute here and searching for value is a fool’s errand.
Final Leg: Grade II Risen Star Stakes (Race 13) 8.5F on dirt
Since we will be alive in this final leg, we will want to have lots of options both short and long prices to cap off what hopefully is a nice ticket. Now, many longtime horizontal players will say just because it’s the last leg does not mean you have to go deep and I certainly agree. However, this is a large field with no clear-cut favorite and wherever it fell in the sequence it just lends itself to spreading as much as the budget allows.
This is a 50-points to win race so whomever has their photo taken, assuming they emerge unscathed and healthy, will head to Louisville (perhaps with another race in between) on the first Saturday in May to run for the Roses.
A horse that caught my eye a little going from the rail out was Determinedly (4). However, a big red flag for me and maybe its just me is that Luis Saez who has ridden this horse in his last three starts (2 wins) shows up on another horse Angel of Empire (6) for Cox, a colt he has never ridden. Considering I fully expect these connections to keep Saez on Instant Coffee, another Cox trainee, it makes no sense that he would abandon Determinedly.
However, Kiaran McLaughlin, Saez’s agent has been in this game almost as long as I’ve been alive and for that reason I trust him implicitly with this decision and in fact will use it as grounds to toss the 4 horse.
Harlocap (5) looks like he has been under the care of Bob Baffert until very recently as the February 11 work took place at the Great Race Place in Arcadia. He now enters the Asmussen barn. Johnny V stays aboard and this one has been steadily progressing. While most of his top horses tend to win at first asking this one has improved as the distances have increased and shows a ton of staying power in the last effort. Three runners from that and while they did not win, they all hit the board. This is one that I just will have to include given the connections and fact that Johnny V stays aboard. There are no monsters in this race (as of yet) and this one definitely fits, hoping for the 8/1 although its doubtful.
Before we dive into the three Cox horses, let’s try and pare down some of the others and who will use.
Two Phil’s (10) popped a career-best Beyer (88) last time out in the Lecomte losing to Instant Coffee who sits this one out. Rivelli is a guy who is known to improve horses, he has his main guy Loveberry aboard and this one has definitely learned how to rate after being a pure on-the-muscle speed type as a sprinter.
Feel as though this one will be formidable, Loveberry having a solid meet in the Crescent City and the February 8 bullet drill was encouraging. Also, back to the local jockey wanting to shine on a big day angle.
Of the two other Asmussen horses, both Silver Heist (11) and Private Creed (14) are priced at 12/1. Of these two, I’d take a long look at Silver Heist more for the knocks I have against Private Creed. Admittedly Jimmy Creed, the dad of Private Creed, is my favorite sire. However, he is more known for sprinters and obviously the connections of this one agree as he went short on the grass in the first five efforts of his career. In a race where there are a ton of logical plays, this one just defies logic and therefore will be a play against.
Silver Heist is an improving type who they have been patient with and can certainly see him factoring into the outcome with a step forward. However, his presence on my ticket will hinge almost completely on if I am going to use all three Cox horses. If so, doubtful this one sees the light of day.
Now, for the Cox horses. I will rank them in order of preference and provide rationale why:
1-Victory Formation (13)
To me the clear standout among this trio but definitely not a cinch to win. This is a pure speed horse with an outside post. However, he has been steadily improving and despite not having a race over the track has had two very strong works at Fair Grounds. Just have so many occasions where a Brad Cox speed horse is able to clear and be a major factor in these spots. In fact, in graded stakes for 3-year-old males going long on the dirt at FG over the past five years, Cox strikes at 31%.
2-Tapit’s Conquest (8)
Lost to Determinedly last out while running a career-best 84 Beyer. This one is a stalking type who will be in the mix early. Cox hits at 26% over the past five years second off the layoff. Two of this guy’s rivals appear in this spot today and he is actually a lower price on the morning line than the horse who beat him last out. This one is a must-use for me in a race that will be a spread-fest.
3-Angel of Empire (6)
This one confuses me a little in terms of whether to include. Given Saez’s presence, as we discussed earlier, I feel as though he warrants a long hard look. In looking back at his seasonal debut, the Smarty Jones, four horses have come back to run from that one and none have won. That could very well change today as the winner of that event, Victory Formation, could have his picture taken. Big fan of the sire Classic Empire who hits at 18% with 3-year-olds and 21% in dirt routes. The more I type, the more I feel as though this one is a must-use.
Despite my affinity for Amoss, Curly Jack is a toss for me in this spot. The Iroquois came back anything but strong as five of the horses in that event came back to run and finished 7th or worse, so that wasn’t a great field. True, there’s no shame in losing to Instant Coffee in the last but the Beyers are a touch on the light side.
Ticket Construction
When finalizing a ticket, I like to determine which races are spread races and which ones I possess a strong opinion in. In this sequence the third and fourth legs are ones where my opinion is strongest and I’ll go skinny while the first, second and final legs are ones where I will spread, to one extent or another.
Leg 1- Ice Chocolat (1), All in Sync (3), Surveillance (8), Evan Sing (9)
Leg 2-Hoist the Gold (1), Tawny Port (3), Happy American (6), Pioneer of Medina (7), Mr. Wireless (8).
Leg 3-Two Emmys (2), Gentle Soul (4), Bay Street Money (8)
Leg 4-Hoosier Philly (2)
Leg 5-Harlocap (5), Angel of Empire (6), Tapit’s Conquest (8), Two Phil’s (10), Victory Formation (13).
Ticket Cost-$150.
Here is more of a “chalk” ticket which I like to use either as a backup in addition to my first play or as a cheaper alternative.
Leg 1-All in Sync (3), Surveillance (8), Evan Sing (9)
Leg 2-Tawny Port (3), Happy American (6), Pioneer of Medina (7)
Leg 3-Two Emmy’s (2), Gentle Soul (4)
Leg 4-Hoosier Philly (2)
Leg 5-Harlocap (5), Angel of Empire (6), Tapit’s Conquest (8), Two Phil’s (10), Victory Formation (13).
Ticket Cost: $45
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