Ladies First: Picks for the 2015 Kentucky Oaks

May 1, 2015

The Churchill Downs Racetrack

Prior to what promises to be one of the most anticipated and exciting Kentucky derbies in recent memory, we have a fine group of three year old females competing in The 2015 Kentucky Oaks.

While there is no standout filly like Untapable was last year, we have a somewhat evenly matched group of 14 fillies. This creates what should be a world of wagering opportunities. A handicapper’s dream so to speak.

Stellar Wind will likely play the role of favorite off two smashing scores at Santa Anita. Purchased privately by John Sadler for Hronis Racing following a nice maiden breaker at Laurel, she went on to capture The Santa Ysabel and Santa Anita Oaks by open lengths both times. I’m a Chatterbox rolled to scores in three straight Fair Grounds stakes, the last being the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. Her wins were all by open lengths as well. Condo Commando comes off three straight dominating wire to wire wins, including the Grade 2 Gazelle by almost three lengths. She also has an eleven length score in the Grade 2 Demoiselle on her resume.

The contention does not stop there either. Lovely Maria, the second Larry Jones trained runner has always been highly regarded and has improved steadily. She put it all together after chasing her stablemate I’m a Chatterbox at The Fair Grounds by taking The Ashland, a Grade 1 at Keeneland. She’s ridden by veteran Kerwin Boo Boo Clarke going for the biggest win of his career.

Bill Mott makes no bones about his pointing Puca for The Oaks since her troubled run in The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. There are not many, if any at all, more dangerous than Bill Mott when pointing for a big race like the 2015 Kentucky Oaks.

Todd Pletcher brings in two fillies, Steve Asmussen brings one. Birdatthewire comes in for Dale Romans after a strong run in three straight Grade 2 stakes at Gulfstream Park. She took both the Forward Gal and Gulfstream Park Oaks and missed the Davona Dale by just a neck.

By now you should pretty much see we have a contentious and wide open Kentucky Oaks. I am going to try and capitalize on that by keying one horse in the top three slots in the superfecta.

It’s not going to be just any horse either. It’s going to be a horse who is 20‐1 on the morning line and I expect to get all of that and maybe more at post time. I think Include Betty is very dangerous here and can outrun her odds for the always dangerous Tom Proctor. Her last three dirt races are all excellent. She has that Tampa Bay Downs bottom to her I love that often goes overlooked. She’s had and overcome some very wide trips, including last out when she came from Central Ave. to take the Grade 3 Fantasy at Oaklawn Park. I’ll be using this very live filly in the top three slots in the superfecta and probably triple.

I’ll be going all in the fourth slot in the super as I won’t leave that door open in a race like this. There is potential for a really nice superfecta if Include Betty can rally her way into it.

There are many ways to go in The 2015 Kentucky Oaks this year. Whatever you decide, best of luck and enjoy what should be one heck of a race.

Contributing Authors

Jon Stettin

Jonathan’s always had a deep love and respect for the Sport of Kings. Growing up around the game, he came about as close as anyone...

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Another great piece by Jonathan!

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