By Jim Gazzale
Well, it wasn’t a great debut on Past the Wire last week. We went 1-4 with our only win coming thanks to a controversial call that canceled a likely game-winning touchdown from the Chiefs, gifting the Buffalo Bills a win.
Thanks for sticking with us here as we march on with an overall record of 29-26-2, just over 50%.
Here are the games we’re going after this week.
Atlanta (-3) at Carolina
Our metrics put this contest at an 8-point difference in favor of the Falcons. So if we only have to give up 3, there appears to be some value.
Carolina is statistically the worst team in the league across the board and might be one of the worst teams we’ve seen in recent NFL history. Atlanta ain’t all that great, either, but they have a decent third-down conversion rate and move the ball mildly well, averaging 5.1 yards per play.
At a certain point, you have to wonder what Carolina still has left to play for. On the flip side, Atlanta, at 6-7, is still very much in the thick of the playoff push. I think Atlanta simply outweighs Carolina in every statistical category, should be motivated to keep pace in the NFC, and should get this done by more than 3.
Chicago (+3) at Cleveland
The Browns are trotting out Joe Flacco, who has looked pretty darn good recently. While Cleveland doesn’t give up much ground at home, one of the best home defenses in the NFL, Chicago’s offense has been decent this season.
Chicago gains more yards per play, generates more expected points per play than Cleveland, and also converts better on third downs.
According to BetMGM bet splits, it’s relatively even in terms of the number of bets though more money is backing the Bears. That suggests to me some sharp money is on Chicago, and we’ll ride that looking to spring an upset.
Philadelphia at Seattle (+3.5)
Philadelphia got absolutely manhandled last week by the Cowboys. It is certainly fair at this point to question the quality of wins for the Eagles and poke holes in what’s been exploited by top teams in the league recently in Dallas and San Francisco.
Our model loves the Seahawks. They move the ball well, averaging well over 6 yards per play, and convert on 47.5% of third downs.
Philly, going on the road again after such a demoralizing loss to your division rival against a team that’s pushing for the playoffs, I’m willing to take the points as this should be a close game.
BetMGM shows Seattle as a huge contrarian play, only getting 22% of bets and 12% of the money so far. What’s interesting too, is the line opened at 3.5 and looks to be inching closer to 3 even with all the money on the Eagles. That should prick your ears up.
