Gas Me Up, Benoit Photo
James Gazzale
Saturday’s Grade 3 Thunder Road Stakes at Santa Anita sets up as a classic clash between speed and class, and our new Comprehensive Handicapping Report (CHR) has identified a massive overlay in this $100,000 turf route.
THE PACE SCENARIO
El Potente controls the early pace with elite speed figures (TimeformUS Early Pace: 107), and here’s the critical insight: he’s going to get loose on an uncontested lead. He’ll get the rail and will dictate soft, comfortable fractions with nobody to challenge him early. Our model projects a methodical :23³ opening quarter and :47² half-mile. It’s exactly the kind of setup that typically sees a front-runner steal away.
But not this time.
THE CLASS DIFFERENTIATOR
Gas Me Up brings a weapon El Potente can’t match: elite international class. While El Potente won last year’s Thunder Road and owns a 104 Beyer top, Gas Me Up comes off a Grade 1 Woodbine Mile where he finished third, beaten just 3 ¼ lengths by European star Notable Speech. He followed that with a devastating performance in the Grade 2 Hernandez right here at Santa Anita, rallying from 10th to win by 1¼ lengths.
Our CHR’s pace analysis reveals the critical matchup: El Potente’s soft early pace sets up perfectly for Gas Me Up’s explosive late kick (TimeformUS Late Pace: 82). The Canadian shipper can stalk comfortably 2-3 wide, save ground, and unleash that Grade 1-quality closing punch when it matters most.
THE EXCEPTIONAL VALUE
Here’s where the CHR methodology shines: our model projects Gas Me Up with a 42% win probability at projected 5-2 morning line odds. That’s an 18% edge, the kind of overlay sharp players dream about. The public will overreact to El Potente’s front-running Thunder Road victory while undervaluing Gas Me Up’s superior class credentials.
Trainer Peter Eurton hits 30% with winners repeating, and jockey Kent Demuro (16% at the Santa Anita meet) provides a significant rider upgrade. Gas Me Up is a perfect 2-for-2 at Santa Anita turf with a 100 Beyer top at this track. Everything lines up.
THE DEPTH PLAY
Our CHR also identifies Watsonville as a secondary value proposition at 8-1. The distance specialist is 3-for-6 lifetime at the mile distance (50% strike rate) and comes off a sharp 93 Beyer allowance victory right here at Santa Anita. Trainer Mark Glatt hits 21% overall, and Watsonville’s tactical speed allows him to stalk the pace and strike if the favorite falters.
ACCESS THE COMPLETE ANALYSIS
This free Thunder Road analysis is just one race from this weekend’s loaded stakes schedule. Tracking Trips members get the complete CHR coverage for all major stakes, including three critical Kentucky Derby prep races:
- Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park
- Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct
- Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita
Each report delivers the same data-driven analysis: comprehensive pace analysis, TimeformUS speed figures, class ratings, improvement candidates, bounce risks, win probability models with fair odds projections, and specific wager recommendations.
Last Saturday, our CHR identified three outright winners including On Time Girl ($4.20) and Nearly ($5.40), both as recommended win bets. Our top-3 multi-race selections went 5-for-7, hitting exactas and trifectas throughout the card.
Sign up for Tracking Trips at PastTheWire.com and get immediate access to this weekend’s complete CHR package. Saturday’s Thunder Road analysis is free, but the Derby prep coverage, including detailed breakdowns of the Southwest, Withers, and Robert Lewis, is exclusively for members.
About the Comprehensive Handicapping Report
The CHR combines advanced pace analysis, class metrics, trainer/jockey patterns, and probabilistic modeling to identify value in parimutuel wagering markets. Each report provides actionable wager recommendations with specific win probabilities and projected odds to help bettors find overlays the public misses.
Get complete access: https://pastthewire.com/tracking-trips-info/
