Haskell morning line favorite Journalism with rider Mark Witkowski, takes in the scene at Monmouth Park on Thursday before a morning gallop. Photo By Bill Denver/EQUI-PHOTO
Jim Gazzale
It was a weekend to remember before we even got to Sunday.
On Friday at Churchill Downs, The App delivered two top-pick winners and went 6-for-9 with winners in the top two of win probability. For those scoring at home, that’s a 67% hit rate on a nine-race card. Saturday at Thistledown was even more impressive. Four top-pick winners at $5.00, $42.00, $6.00 and $7.20, eight of twelve winners in the top two, and nine of twelve in the top three. The Early Pick 3 paid $140. The Late Pick 3 returned $30. That’s the kind of day that validates what we’ve been building.
So what do we do with that momentum on Father’s Day?
We go to Monmouth Park on the Jersey Shore.
That might seem like an odd call on a card that, truth be told, isn’t the most glamorous. But Monmouth is where I spent Father’s Days as a kid, sitting in the picnic area or on the apron with my dad, learning to read a racing form. Plenty of great memories at The Shore’s Greatest Stretch, so let’s see what the model says.
Race 1 — Maiden Special Weight, Fillies | 8.5F Turf
The first race of the day features a maiden field that the model navigates with some clarity. Crossover Capital earns the top win probability at 25%. She’s a Chad Brown first-time starter with a pedigree tailor-made for today’s conditions. Her sire Zarak is a French turf champion, her dam’s sire Teofilo brings classic European stamina, and Brown’s barn is firing at 33% at the meet. Eight published works including three gate drills and a sharp :49.20 four-furlong move show thorough preparation, and the 3-1 morning line signals that connections like their chances.
Mistborn is the model’s value secondary — a Brown trainee in her own right who posted a career best figure at Aqueduct in her last start, finishing third beaten just 1.5 lengths. That’s a solid figure jump in her second career start, and she’s shipping down from NYRA to Monmouth, which represents genuine class relief. The concern is that the public has made her the short-price option, so the value play requires her drifting to 4-1 or better.
The longshot angle worth playing is Paynterpretty. She’s a classic second-start pace horse who contested the early lead in her debut here, dueled through honest fractions, and tired late to finish second. The 12-1 price against a 12% model win probability creates a 4-point overlay that makes her a legitimate multi-race inclusion. Recall we saw a similar situation on Saturday at Thistledown and nailed a $42 winner. That second career start after contesting the lead is a angle you can sink your teeth into.
Race 2 — Maiden Claiming $25,000 | 6F Dirt
This is a straightforward sprint with a clear story. Waitin’onasunnyday is making back-to-back maiden claiming starts after knocking around at slightly higher levels. He’s bringing speed figures that are well above what this $25,000 field has shown. The model assigns a 42% win probability. Leading rider Paco Lopez is aboard. When a horse with that figure profile and Lopez in the irons, you pay attention.
The first-time starter angle belongs to Mighty Milo, trained by Juan Avila, who wins with 30% of his maiden claimers and 21% of his debut runners. A bullet four-furlong work (1st of 62) on May 10th confirms the horse is ready. At 5-2, he’s near fair value but if the crowd sends him lower and Waitin’onasunnyday stays around 2-1, the single-line bet is clear.
Johnny Bay Goode has an improving figure patter, with the beaten margin improving from 15 lengths to 4 in his last start. If the pace sets up, this horse is developing.
Race 3 — Lady’s Secret Stakes, Fillies & Mares | 8.5F Dirt
Race 3 is where the card gets interesting. The model identifies a textbook pace setup. Three horses with early speed tendencies (Equus, Inefficiency, and Ivy Girl) projected to contest hot early fractions, setting up a clean stalking trip for the top selection.
Inefficiency gets the nod as the model’s top play at 38% win probability. The Chad Brown trainee has shown improving figures across two dominant wins, the first was a six-length maiden score followed by a six-and-a-quarter-length allowance win. She possesses the field’s only Elite Sustained Speed Rating, meaning she maintains velocity through the final furlongs while Equus and Ivy Girl project to fade from their early pace involvement. The morning line makes her a prohibitive favorite, but the model says the price is slightly undervalued. Fair odds are 8-5, and she may drift slightly from 4-5 on the board.
Dry Powder is the proven commodity. She’s a Gun Runner filly with graded stakes placings and consistent speed figures. If Inefficiency encounters any trouble, Dry Powder’s stalking style picks up the pieces. The model projects 28% and likes her at 5-2 or better.
Ivy Girl is the pace factor. Her 2-1-0 record at 8.5 furlongs and last-out Laurel stakes win despite stumbling at the break show real ability, but the sustained speed profile is Vulnerable under pace pressure. Use her in exotics for protection.
Race 4 — Maiden Claiming $16,000, Fillies 3YO | 8.5F Turf
The model sees a dominant play in Race 4. Lady Hathor had two competitive starts at Tampa, carrying some of the higher speed figures in this claiming field. She pressed the pace in better company, so the class drop is noticeable. Leading rider Paco Lopez is aboard for the third straight time on this filly. The Lopez/Avila combination hits at a 54% rate when paired. The model assigns a 42% win probability and a +17% edge over the morning line implied probability, which is exceptional.
The pace scenario works in her favor, too. Maxpower and Munchkin are likely to duel early, setting up a perfect pressing trip for Lopez to stalk and pounce.
Maxpower is the top speed type with a career-best speed figure last out. She’s worth using in multi-race wagers as backup coverage. Maizey Blue rounds out the model’s top three based on win probability percentage.
Race 5 — Allowance Optional Claimer, 3YO+ | 6F Dirt
Race 5 features a legitimate pace setup story and two horses pulling in different directions.
Grant the Great won his maiden impressively going gate-to-wire at Laurel with a solid figure and the fastest last-race figure in the field. Trainer Kelly Breen hits 32% at the meet. Lopez is up. On paper, it’s a clear top choice, and the model gives him 35%.
But the model’s preferred play at value is Guapo Again at 25%. The Argentine-bred gelding is 4-for-9 in 2026, including a dominant score right here at Monmouth over this same strip in May. The pace sets up perfectly for him: Saint Ephrem and Grant the Great figure to engage early, and Guapo Again’s Elite Sustained Speed Rating is the model’s way of saying he’s the horse most likely to maintain velocity when the duelers start to back up.
Saint Ephrem can wire the field if he clears. Three wins in his career have all come when getting an uncontested lead. But today he draws outside and faces immediate pressure, and his one pace-duel attempt ended in a 13-length collapse. He’s the “if” horse.
Race 6 — Get Serious Stakes, 5F Turf
The turf sprint is the most interesting race of the day, and the model’s message is simple: fade the speed, bet the stalker on the rail.
Alogon is the play at 28% win probability. He’s the field’s sharpest late mover on grass with closing segments in the 38-40 MPH range. He draws the rail on Monmouth’s five-furlong layout, which means he saves ground while Speed Figures, Souper Quest, Coppola and Fore Harp all figure to be engaged in what the model projects as a suicidal pace duel.
Think about the post position angle here: Fore Harp must race six to seven most of the entire trip. Coppola faces a similar problem. Speed Figures will be immediately pressured from both sides. Meanwhile, Alogon sits the rail, stalks the chaos, and has historically shown the ability to accelerate when others are fading.
The public “favorite,” Governor Sam, gets a sharp fade from the model. The 2-1 morning line implies 33% probability, but the model says 16%. The morning line is a trap.
Souper Quest is the only speed horse the model uses as secondary coverage. He gets an inside draw and has shown he can dictate tempo when conditions allow.
Race 7 — Claiming $40,000, 3YO+ | 6F Dirt
Race 7 is a wide-open $40,000 claimer for three-year-olds and up, and the model finds two very different ways to attack it.
Couches Burning is the top choice at 28.5%. Three career starts with improving figures and an 11.25-length wire-to-wire blowout right here at Monmouth Park over this exact six-furlong dirt strip. Trainer Kelly Breen is at 32% for the meet. Lopez is back up, same as the previous two starts. The model’s Sustained Speed Rating for this horse is Elite, meaning he maintains velocity from wire to wire.
The counter-narrative play is Thunder Chuck, who’s recently contested stakes-only company is dropping into claiming for the first time in his career. Trainer Jorge Delgado, the same barn that’s been firing at 32% at this meet, doesn’t make this kind of move without intent. Add first-time Lasix and this becomes a legitimate hidden-class angle. The model gives him 16.5%.
Race 8 — Maiden Special Weight | 8.5F Turf
We close the card on the grass, and the model’s race of the day for pure angle-play is right here.
Guitarist is the top selection and he deserves it. Two starts ago at Gulfstream, he finished second beaten just a nose with the fastest recent figure in today’s field by a decent margin. Last out he tried stakes company at Monmouth, engaged in a blazing speed duel through honest fractions, and “gave way when headed” per the trip notes. That’s a pace excuse in tougher company. Today he drops back to maiden special weight with Lopez aboard and Delgado training. The model gives him 35%.
The value overlay is Everything Orly. He’s the lone first-time starter and a Tapit colt with European-style stamina breeding perfectly suited to an eight-furlong turf route. Trainer Juan Avila hits 21% with debut runners. The barn is second-hottest at the meet (29%). Eleven works over six months including two bullet efforts and a five-furlong gate work show a horse that’s been pointed at this spot for a while. The model projects 18% win probability against 14.3% implied by the morning line, which is a genuine overlay.
Market Timing is the Chad Brown second-starter angle that everyone will talk about. Brown wins 31% of maiden second-starters, one of the most bankable trainer patterns in racing. But the 3-1 morning line implies 25% probability, and the model only projects 14%. The debut was over a year ago. Not ideal. If Market Timing drifts to 5-1 at post time, he becomes worth a small win bet as a true overlay.
Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there!
