Star sophomore Nysos will return in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita (Ernie Belmonte/Past The Wire)
By Laura Pugh
Santa Anita may have moved their Saturday Stakes to Sunday, but that doesn’t change the fact that this is the “mega weekend” of the spring season for the Sport of Kings. From East to West there is a plethora of stakes racing action, from Kentucky Derby preps to the Santa Anita Handicap. In short, it marks the beginning of racing’s “get serious” season, and there is a LOT to be excited about, and here is how I see a few of these races playing out.
Santa Anita Handicap (G1)
This race looks like it will be part of the Bob Baffert show vs the ex-Baffert-trained, Newgrange, who is two for two since swapping barns. However, I think this race belongs to the royally bred invader, Highland Falls. The Santa Anita Handicap will be Highland Falls‘ first attempt at graded stakes company, however, given his recent performances at the Fair Grounds and Churchill Downs, I don’t see that being a problem.
He is, as I pointed out, regally bred. By Horse of the Year Curlin, out of champion Round Pond, this horse is bred up and down to LOVE this distance. Newgrange, and several others in this year’s Big Cap are not. They also haven’t shown the same type of kick at the end of their races as Highland Falls.
Highland Falls will stretch out in distance in the Big Cap, but in his last two, he’s given no indication of getting tired. He’s quite content to stalk the leaders before pouncing with long, yet explosive moves. His last two final 1/16ths have been 6.09 and 6.12 respectively.
His opponents might have the edge of experience, but I’m betting his talent will take him to the Big Cap winner’s circle.
Fountain of Youth (G2)
You can see my more in-depth analysis of this race in my column from earlier this week, however, what I didn’t say was that I actually expect Speak Easy to struggle in this spot.
When I wrote my Fountain of Youth analysis, I really thought that the connections would opt to scratch from this race in favor of the allowance on Friday. It doesn’t have the same amount of speed as the Fountain of Youth, meaning less early pressure, and it is also a lighter spot. That would set the colt up well for an attempt at the Florida Derby.
In his impressive maiden victory, Speak Easy prompted the pace just outside of fellow Fountain of Youth entrant, Victory Avenue. The latter set the pace, to the inside of Speak Easy, meaning he did all the dirty work while under pressure. This time the rolls will be reversed, and Speak Easy, who is breaking from the 1 post, will not only have Victory Avenue sitting off of his flank, but Le Dom Bro, and the stakes-winning Dornoch.
Then, just off of that flight you have Grade One winner Locked, and the Swale Stakes winner Frankie’s Empire waiting to pounce. Speak Easy won’t have a chance to get a breather and will likely see pressure every step of the 1 1/16th mile journey. That is a lot to ask of a second-time starter, and I think it will cause him to wilt when they hit the top of the stretch.
San Felipe (G2)
Yeah, I might not think he’s got the upper hand in the Santa Anita Handicap, but this race looks like Bob Baffert’s to lose.
I know you all have heard of Nysos. Big, fast, impressive-looking bay by champion Nyquist, unbeaten and unchallenged in three career starts? Yeah, it didn’t look as though he would be running in this spot, but yesterday his name appeared in the entries, which means Baffert’s arguably most talented 3-year-old is ready to rumble.
Nysos has already faced, and beaten three of the other entrants in this field very handily, in the Robert B. Lewis. The only horse he hasn’t faced is his stablemate Imagination.
Imagination will likely go down as the “other” Baffert in the San Felipe, and there have been plenty of times, in the past, where “the other Baffert” upstaged the juggernaut… Anyone remember Collected spoiling Arrogate’s Pacific Classic? While his numbers are nowhere near Nysos, Imagination hasn’t run poorly. Despite only having one win, he has run second in his other three starts. One of those defeats was to the unbeaten and highly regarded Maymun. The other was to Pilot Commander, who ran second to Muth in the San Vicente.
Neither Nysos or Imagination will gain any Kentucky Derby points from this, leading me to believe Nysos won’t be wound up 100%. This a prep for the Preakness, in all likelihood. Imagination, on the other hand, doesn’t have a major target that we know of, and given that he has more to prove, it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a bit more ready to go. If that is the case, I feel like, if anyone is to upset Nysos, Imagination is the one to do it.
