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This Saturday we offer complete analysis of Belmont’s June 3 card by Jimmy W., one of the sharpest handicappers on Twitter and at the track. Jimmy devotes a lot of time to his craft and comes up with some pretty solid opinions both for and against horses. We’re happy to offer his analysis of the card. You can and probably should follow Jimmy W on Twitter at @matt918476…..
Race #1
We start the day in a race with some intriguing jockey movement #6 Happy Match – 4th chance here vs. maiden claimers but have a feeling the connections dropped Arroyo with disappointments in last 2 races , Manny Franco now and gets jump on #3 My Uncle Al – where the vengeful Arroyo lands , will be the one to beat but feel my top choice has pace edge . #5 Correjon – will be prominent throughout for Rudy Rod . #7 Read My Lips – will get some attention at the windows based on huge drop and horses faced ( Monaco & Made you look) , blinkers on too , but passing for me , hasn’t run a lick .
We start the day in a race with some intriguing jockey movement #6 Happy Match – 4th chance here vs. maiden claimers but have a feeling the connections dropped Arroyo with disappointments in last 2 races , Manny Franco now and gets jump on #3 My Uncle Al – where the vengeful Arroyo lands , will be the one to beat but feel my top choice has pace edge . #5 Correjon – will be prominent throughout for Rudy Rod . #7 Read My Lips – will get some attention at the windows based on huge drop and horses faced ( Monaco & Made you look) , blinkers on too , but passing for me , hasn’t run a lick .
Race #2
#7 Violet Blue – hmmmm was bet right into the #8 Blenheim Palace in last and finished 1/4 length behind him in only his second start ! the latter #8 Blenheim Palace – is a super money burner and it’s now or never , not getting my money .
#3 Furtive Glance – Mott firster on turf with apprentice H Diaz Jr. interesting and I project this one going to the lead and trying to wire them but you think Mott 1x can do it going 1 3/8th’s ? Asking alot.
#5 Lemondrop Lollipop – honest type but seems a notch below , can improve but will be a tad surprising .Race#3
#3 All About Ashley – gains Jose Ortiz while dropping to lower level claimers ; probably needed last vs faster types in sharp run race , should nail them here as enough pace to close into .
#4 Brewing – another dropping a bit , has faced much better and fits with these if can rate a tad .
#6 Monster Mash – likes Belmont , nice cozy outside post and projects to take them as far as he can .Race #4
#3 Cerratalto – after 2 strong dirt tries , taking a shot stretching out on the turf , feel will take to it fine and has the speed to steal or lay just off and take over ; only needs take to the lawn!
#1 Leaveematthegate – the bad 0-8 on the turf, 0-5 on this very course but that don’t tell the whole story for this unlucky type , shown me enough with minor placings in those , Jose Ortiz stats and sees fit .
#2 Fulmer – will need to run back to his 2014 , yes 2014 , promise ; since been gelded , freshened and switched from Clement to Linda Rice ….maybe .Race#5
#6 River Date – projects to be alone on the lead , likes Belmont , maybe little longer than he wants but horse runs big every time faces these claiming types.
#3 Marriage Fever – should be sitting just off the top choice and can finish that way .
#7 Johns Island – Rosario is a significant upgrade , will be sitting in good spot but not sure he wants this far .
#5 Taoiseoch – is worth a mention as he’s been knocking on the door, but would need a pace battle here .Race #6
Tricky race here with a few unknowns and interesting jockey decisions but will land on the #4 Lido – who will need a little pace to run into but has moved strongly in both starts ; not thrilled with departure of Rosario for other and 1x vs winners but fits for me here .
#6 Padoga – an unknown but Jose Ortiz sees fits on this French import for the highly capable Lynch training now stateside ; another going 1x vs winners but feel could be this good or better .
#5 Volatility Index – Chad Brown , possible pace edge over most and probable post time fave ; the thing that bothers me is how she got nailed last time at the wire .Race #7
#4 Fact Check – I wanted to find a way to beat this money burner but I just can’t here , towers over field here …. can wire them , can lay just off and take over ; I guess can get nipped late but by who ???
#1 Yummy Bear – thinking the cut back will help , the possible upsetter if can move earlier ; I like the move in last at 45-1 in quick race .
#5 Lucky Town – should sit a good trip and has some races on turf that make him tough in here ; jumping off the page is his 2 starts on this course at today’s distance , a first and second place .Race#8
#3 Summer of Joy – turf to dirt , the cut back , class edge all should be enough for this one to wear them down late .
#5 Tainted Angel – another closer for me here also with a class edge for Rudy Rod as I just can’t see any of the cheaper pace types getting away at 6 1/2 furlongs .
#10 Audrique – if speed type is to ha g around , this is the speed of the speed and the drop might make her last a tad longer .Race #9
#9 Good Samaritan – No more excuses , not the ideal post but with speed to his inside he should get over just fine ; Rosario stays and added distance can only help . Need to see and believe this one takes a step forward and blows these away late .
#7 Ticonderoga – Chas Brown colt always shows up and makes a run but has already finished behind the top choice twice and find last start disappointing .
#8 Secretary At War – pace presence has to deal with the overrated #6 Oscar Performance but feel this one has the more upside; and just might hang around late .Race #10
The finale is a maiden claimer on the turf with horses from Chad Brown , Wesley Ward and Todd Pletcher , so if you beat them you can get paid !!! …. ok now wake up !
#8 Starstuck Kitten – ran an even race finishing 4th by 2 lengths and change at 5-1 in MSW unveiling at Keeneland … Ramsey , Ward , Rosario and the drop to the maiden claiming ranks makes this one tough to beat.
#11 Harlans Punch – probably needed last , got caught wide while pressing fast pace and faded ; that was fast and vs better , now facing maiden claimers and is a severe threat with easier lead here . Oh Pletcher / Johnny V.
#10 Prognastication – Chad Brown / Jose Ortiz , improved last time seen on turf and with drop to maiden claimers , sticks in claimers here but been off since October , still very dangerous .
Ok so if you need to keep the dream alive #5 Thayer Week, 1st timer for Weaver has some things to like and will be an upsetting end of the day , if , big if .
#7 Violet Blue – hmmmm was bet right into the #8 Blenheim Palace in last and finished 1/4 length behind him in only his second start ! the latter #8 Blenheim Palace – is a super money burner and it’s now or never , not getting my money .
#3 Furtive Glance – Mott firster on turf with apprentice H Diaz Jr. interesting and I project this one going to the lead and trying to wire them but you think Mott 1x can do it going 1 3/8th’s ? Asking alot.
#5 Lemondrop Lollipop – honest type but seems a notch below , can improve but will be a tad surprising .Race#3
#3 All About Ashley – gains Jose Ortiz while dropping to lower level claimers ; probably needed last vs faster types in sharp run race , should nail them here as enough pace to close into .
#4 Brewing – another dropping a bit , has faced much better and fits with these if can rate a tad .
#6 Monster Mash – likes Belmont , nice cozy outside post and projects to take them as far as he can .Race #4
#3 Cerratalto – after 2 strong dirt tries , taking a shot stretching out on the turf , feel will take to it fine and has the speed to steal or lay just off and take over ; only needs take to the lawn!
#1 Leaveematthegate – the bad 0-8 on the turf, 0-5 on this very course but that don’t tell the whole story for this unlucky type , shown me enough with minor placings in those , Jose Ortiz stats and sees fit .
#2 Fulmer – will need to run back to his 2014 , yes 2014 , promise ; since been gelded , freshened and switched from Clement to Linda Rice ….maybe .Race#5
#6 River Date – projects to be alone on the lead , likes Belmont , maybe little longer than he wants but horse runs big every time faces these claiming types.
#3 Marriage Fever – should be sitting just off the top choice and can finish that way .
#7 Johns Island – Rosario is a significant upgrade , will be sitting in good spot but not sure he wants this far .
#5 Taoiseoch – is worth a mention as he’s been knocking on the door, but would need a pace battle here .Race #6
Tricky race here with a few unknowns and interesting jockey decisions but will land on the #4 Lido – who will need a little pace to run into but has moved strongly in both starts ; not thrilled with departure of Rosario for other and 1x vs winners but fits for me here .
#6 Padoga – an unknown but Jose Ortiz sees fits on this French import for the highly capable Lynch training now stateside ; another going 1x vs winners but feel could be this good or better .
#5 Volatility Index – Chad Brown , possible pace edge over most and probable post time fave ; the thing that bothers me is how she got nailed last time at the wire .Race #7
#4 Fact Check – I wanted to find a way to beat this money burner but I just can’t here , towers over field here …. can wire them , can lay just off and take over ; I guess can get nipped late but by who ???
#1 Yummy Bear – thinking the cut back will help , the possible upsetter if can move earlier ; I like the move in last at 45-1 in quick race .
#5 Lucky Town – should sit a good trip and has some races on turf that make him tough in here ; jumping off the page is his 2 starts on this course at today’s distance , a first and second place .Race#8
#3 Summer of Joy – turf to dirt , the cut back , class edge all should be enough for this one to wear them down late .
#5 Tainted Angel – another closer for me here also with a class edge for Rudy Rod as I just can’t see any of the cheaper pace types getting away at 6 1/2 furlongs .
#10 Audrique – if speed type is to ha g around , this is the speed of the speed and the drop might make her last a tad longer .Race #9
#9 Good Samaritan – No more excuses , not the ideal post but with speed to his inside he should get over just fine ; Rosario stays and added distance can only help . Need to see and believe this one takes a step forward and blows these away late .
#7 Ticonderoga – Chas Brown colt always shows up and makes a run but has already finished behind the top choice twice and find last start disappointing .
#8 Secretary At War – pace presence has to deal with the overrated #6 Oscar Performance but feel this one has the more upside; and just might hang around late .Race #10
The finale is a maiden claimer on the turf with horses from Chad Brown , Wesley Ward and Todd Pletcher , so if you beat them you can get paid !!! …. ok now wake up !
#8 Starstuck Kitten – ran an even race finishing 4th by 2 lengths and change at 5-1 in MSW unveiling at Keeneland … Ramsey , Ward , Rosario and the drop to the maiden claiming ranks makes this one tough to beat.
#11 Harlans Punch – probably needed last , got caught wide while pressing fast pace and faded ; that was fast and vs better , now facing maiden claimers and is a severe threat with easier lead here . Oh Pletcher / Johnny V.
#10 Prognastication – Chad Brown / Jose Ortiz , improved last time seen on turf and with drop to maiden claimers , sticks in claimers here but been off since October , still very dangerous .
Ok so if you need to keep the dream alive #5 Thayer Week, 1st timer for Weaver has some things to like and will be an upsetting end of the day , if , big if .
