Baby Talk – Saratoga, 07/28/2024

July 27, 2024

Saratoga, Races 1 & 7 – Sunday, July 28, 2024

By The 2YO EdgeMan

SAR1:072824 – 6 1/2f on the dirt.  Seven fillies are entered.  The number of First-Time starters = four and the number of those having started once is three.

#2 – My Shot (3/1) – Constitution (ALL = 14.6%; FTS = 17.0%) is the daddy to this filly who is by Speightstown.  Mom was 1/4 with $65,000 earned and she’s produced two other foals of racing age, one brought home $163K with a 2/9 record at the racetrack.  The bidding stopped when Greg Tramontin bid $240K on this gal last year when she was a yearling (27/66).  Trainer Tom Amoss (M = 22.2%; $2.96; FTS = 3/10, 30.0%; $4.24) has been readying this gal for her debut today with a dozen impressive works down in KY (51 furlongs).  Her last four, and five of her last six have been over 5/8th of a mile and five of her 12 have been solid bullets.  Two back at CD on 7/9/24 she zipped 5f in 59.2 (1/17) and on 6/18/24 at KEE she traveled a half mile in 46.8 (1/65).  Jose gets the opportunity to pilot her

#3 – Buriana (10/1) – D. Wayne (CM = 2/15, 13.3%, ROI = $1.07; 0/2 at CD in 2024) will sling the saddle on this Justify (ALL = 20.2%, FTS = 21/94, 22.3%) filly.  Her mama, sired by Sky Mesa, bankrolled over $300K on the track and she’s thrown two other foals, but neither has had much success.  $625K was the hammer price (6/70) when she was a yearling.  She has one race under her belt – R4 6/26/24 at Churchill (4 1/2f on the Dirt) – but she showed very little that day at 60/1+.  Since that race, Wayne has drilled her three times here at SAR and her last two were over five panels.  Joel is listed as her jockey.

#4 – Reliable Source (5/2) – Newby sire, Volatile, is 4/15 with his initial crop and this filly is trained by Steve Asmussen (CM = 22.6%; ROI = $1.50).  His unraced dam is by Broken Vow and she has had seven other foals to race with three runners earning north of $100K – one of those won his first start as a 2YO at CD in a June MCL event.  Today’s gal was a $250K RNA as a yearling and she’s raced one time previously (same race as the #3 horse).  In that event, she finished second, three lengths shy of the victor, but she made a nice move after getting away from the gate slowly.  Two back, she traveled 5/8th of a mile.  Prat will guide her for the first time.

#6 – Donor Advised (9/5) – Chad Brown (M = 17.7%; FTS = 15.2%) has been prepping this FTS filly who’s sired by Gun Runner (ALL =19.8%; FTS = 20.6%).  Mama is by Malibu Moon, but she was winless in seven attempts.  In the breeding shed she has produced two other foals, but neither have scored yet.  Klaravich Stables picked up this filly at auction last year and gave $325K for her as a yearling (24/63).  To get ready for her debut, Chad has worked this gal eight times (30f) and her first two back in June were both bullets going three poles here at SAR – on 6/1/24 she went in 36.55 (1/8) and then on 6/10/24 the stopwatch stopped at 36.81 (1/22).  Irad will be the man in the saddle.

#7 – Margot’s Angel (6/1) – The cross of Practical Joke (ALL = 16.5%; FTS = 16.5%) and Scat Daddy are responsible for this filly who is trained by HOFer, Bill Mott (M = 8.1%; FTS = 8.9%).  Mom was winless in two tries at racing and she’s thrown two other foals of racing age and one of them is a 4YO gelding that is 2/4 with $112K in the bank, including a win first time out as a two-year-old at BEL in June (88 EBSF).  This debutant is a homebred from Parkland Thoroughbreds.  Mott has pumped seven breezes into her, all here at SAR, totaling 28 furlongs.  Her second work, on 6/9/24, was done in 48.22 for a half mile, earning her a bullet (1/11).  Bill’s go-to rider – Junior Alvarado – will handle the rein duties.

Final Analysis – I was disappointed when I first saw that there were only seven starters entered, but after seeing the quality and depth of the runners, my angst quickly turned to excitement.  #4 is a dangerous second-time starter and #6 would be easy to select, too, but my pick is #2 My Shot.  Her works pop off the page and Amoss is excellent here at The Spa, especially with firsters.  I adore Constitution and Jose will likely be a positive.

SAR6:072824 – One mile and 1/16th on the Turf.  11 fillies are entered, but only ten will start.  Only three are firsters, five have started once, and two have the experience of two starts.  

#2 – McKinzie’s Glory (15/1) – As I’m sure that you guess, this filly hails from First-Crop sire – McKinzie (2 winners from 14 starters).  Mom, a dam by Tapit, was 3/15 on the track with $202K in earnings.  She’s produced three foals of racing age and all of them have earned north of $100K in purse money and two of three of them won in their third out while two, one here at SAR and one at AQU.  Derby Hero, Kenny McPeek (M = 16.3%; FTS = 9.2%), trains this FTS gal who was a $100K sales yearling last year (55/120).  She has put in seven works (27f) and her first was her best.  Back on 6/7/24 she fired off a bullet going three furlongs in 35.6 (1/52).  Leparoux will have his boots in the irons.

#3 – Opulent Restraint (2/1 ML fav) – Chad Brown (M = 17.7%; FTS = 15.2%) sends out this filly whose stallion is the Irish-bred Dubwai.  Creative Cause is her broodmare sire and mom broke her maiden at age two in a G3 affair at BEL in October, hanging an 89 EBSF.  She went on to a fantastic career winning purse money of over $800K (5/14).  This is her first foal.  Today’s contestant is a homebred from the Brant family and this will be her debut race.  To prepare her, Chad has sent her out for nine morning moves, one over the Oklahoma turf oval and none of her times have been eye-popping fast.  Brown looks to Irad to guide her.

#5 – Olivia’s Potion (8/1) – Steve Asmussen’s filly is sired by Good Magic (ALL = 13.9%; 2nd start = 14.7%).  Tiznow’s daughter is this gal’s mama and she was only one for 11 as a racemare with earnings of a scant $54K.  She’s done good work in the breeding shed, however, with four out of seven foals of racing age surpassing the $100K earnings mark and two were winners as juveniles in MSW races with one of them being a first-out winner over this CD strip in November.  $400K was the ticket that L & N Racing signed for her last September at KEE when this gal was a yearling (5/45).  In her first try at the racing game, she went six furlongs on the dirt at CD in late June when she started fast but faded significantly.  Steve has given her two works here at SAR (one on the lawn at 5f), but both were slow.  Tyler gets the return engagement to ride.

#9 – Coral Sea (6/1) – English-bred, Kingman (ALL = 16.7%), is the sire responsible for this filly, and War Front is her mom’s sire.  Speaking of mom, she won just one race in the seven that she competed in and brought her owners just over $100K in prize money.  She’s thrown three other foals of racing age – her 4YO filly was a second-out winner on the turf at BAQ going 1 1/16 in October, but she never won again in six tries ($61,000).  This gal is a Bass Stables homebred and she’ll be making her first try at racing today.  Todd Pletcher (M = 19.6%; FTS = 17.0%) has given her seven works – 26 furlongs – (two over the grass), all here at SAR in preparation for her first-ever race today.  Her best was probably on 7/1/24 going a half mile on the Oklahoma lawn in 49.21 (5/41).  Flavien will get the leg up from TAP.

Final Analysis – #9 at ML odds of 6/1 looks enticing, but the fact that Irad is riding #3 Opulent Restraint makes her my pick.  If you read my Special Article earlier this week you will see that Chad slays them in these two-turn events for the babies on the grass and Dubawi is as good as grass sires get.  And how about her dam?  She was an absolute rock star and broke her maiden at age two on the lawn.  Odds may be skinny, but it doesn’t pay well when you bet to win and don’t play the winnah.  

That’s it for this week at Saratoga, but we’ve got a bonus for you as we’ll cover the two baby races at Ellis Park on Monday.  So, don’t stray far from www.PastTheWire.com cause we’ll be right back atcha.  Have a wonderful and safe weekend.  Thank you for all the support, my Edgie Wonderfuls.

Contributing Authors

The 2YO Edge Man, Past The Wire

The 2YO EdgeMan

The 2YO EdgeMan started following horse racing when his family moved to Louisville, KY when he was 9 years old.  The story goes that he...

View The 2YO EdgeMan

You were spot on with your race of the weekend. Bad ride/ tough trip but much the best for the 3 horse. She'll be back. Great turn of foot

@kennyneely7938 View testimonials

Facebook