Kentucky Downs, Race 1 & 2 AND Saratoga, Race 2 – Sunday, September 1, 2024
By The 2YO EdgeMan
It’s a giant day with five 2YO MSW races on tap between Kentucky Downs and Saratoga. In an effort not to publish an entire book and to zero in on the opportunities that we like the most, we are excited to share our picks with you below on three events…
KD1:090124 – My pick is #10 It’s Just a Game – Trainer Brian Lynch is 3 for 7 in ‘our races’ at Kentucky Downs over the past five years and Oscar Performance (Turf = 12/88, 13.6%) is a solid grass sire. Momma (by Medaglia d’Oro) was a wonderful race mare earning her owners north of $1 million on the track by winning seven of her 18 starts, including her first start at age two up in Canada at Woodbine. She went on to score four graded stakes events, one of which was a G1 on the lawn. In total, eight of her races were over 110 on the EBSF scale and her highest earned was 118. Unfortunately, she has not be a huge success in the breeding shed having produced five other foals of racing age, but none have found the winners circle in six total tries. Today’s competitor was sold for the scant sum of $15,000 as a weanling back in 2022 (4/4). Brian has been prepping this filly for her debut performance steadily since the end of April over at Churchill Downs. She’s logged 56 furlongs in 14 drills, including three of her last five at 5/8th of a mile. Back on 5/31/24, she went four panels in 47.8 seconds (9/88). Irving Moncada gets the mount.
KD2:090124 – My pick is #11 Leslie’s Star – HOFer Bill Mott has only started four babies in MSW races here at KD since 2019, winning one event. This filly’s daddy is Mendelssohn (Turf = 13.3%) and her Street Cry dam sports a fine race record of 6 for 14, with $332K in prize money and a G3 score. She’s tossed five others of racing age and three have those have eclipsed the $100K mark in earnings, while two won as juveniles. Today’s filly is a homebred and this will be her first start after having worked five times at CD (18 total furlongs). On 8/11/24, she went a half mile in 47.8 (2/87) and then in her last, on 8/24/24, she earned a bullet by covering three poles in 35.6 from the gate (1/24). Jamie Torres will get the leg up from Mott.
SAR2 – 090124 – My pick is #9 Opulent Restraint – although this Peter Brant homebred filly is the ML fav, I think she still potentially offers some reasonable value. She’s a daughter of Irish-bred Dubawi and was thrown by an excellent race mare by Creative Cause who banked $817K in prize money by winning five of her 14 starts. Her first victory came at age two in her second outing in a G3 affair on the turf and she went on to score in a G2T race later in her career. This is her first foal. She’s made one previous start at Saratoga and she ran well that day after getting bumped at the break. After finding herself sixth, five back at the half way point in the 1 1/16th mile turf race, she rallied a bit to finish fourth, only one lengths shy of the victoress. Trainer Chad Brown (Meet 2nd start = 6/13, 46.2%, ROI = 3.64) has put three, four furlong works into her since her last run. Irad is listed to ride, however, he’s also listed on a Pletcher runner (#12).
No MSW baby events on Monday, but enjoy your Labor Day weekend and try to catch the Hopeful at Saratoga, if you are able. Stay safe, be well, and take care, my Edgie Groundswell.
