Kentucky Downs, Race 1 & 5 – Thursday, August 29, 2024 + Bonus!
By The 2YO EdgeMan
KD1:082924 – 6 ½ furlongs on the Turf. 15 fillies are entered, 12 will start. The number of FTSers = 6, those with one start = 2, three have started twice, and one has been out on five previous occasions.
#2 – Exington (15/1) – Trainer Brendan Walsh (M =7/30, 23.3%, ROI = $4.24) will saddle this FTS filly by Hard Spun (Turf = 11.1%). Her Empire Maker dam won one of her two starts ($41,000) and has thrown four other foals of racing age, one is also one for two and that victory was at first asking at Monmouth as a baby. In the sales ring this gal went for $100K as a yearling in 2023 (19/61) and then $155K in April of this year down in Ocala as a 2YO (4/17). She’s been working out on the All Weather strip at Turfway Park and she has been out a dozen times (48 furlongs). Her times have been reasonable, but not lightning fast and she did cover 5/8th of a mile in three of her last four drills. Walsh will give Luan Machado a leg up.
#3 – Princess Irene (8/1) – Omaha Beach (Turf = 4/40, 10.0%) is the pops to this filly whose winless mom (0/5) is by Tapit and this is her first foal. Today’s runner hammered for $275K as a yearling (13/99) and will make her first run today. Trainer Wes Ward (M = 7/36, 19.4%) will send this gal out after having given her nine morning spins – her first five were at Keeneland and her most recent four were at The Spa. None of her work times have been anything to write home about. Gerardo Corrales will climb into the saddle.
#7 – Lucky Mama (6/1) – Eddie Kenneally is looking for his first 2YO MSW winner here at KD over the past five years (M = 0/10) with this Munnings (Turf = 11.4%) filly. Her British-bred mama is by Outstrip (also bred in GB) and she won her second start overseas as a 2YO and went out to a three-for-nine career, earning $133K – this is her first foal. Initially, this gal was offered as a short yearling in January of 2023, but she did not meet her reserve of $120K. However, she did go on to sell later that year as a yearling for $200K (31/92). She has been out twice, her first was at CD in June and her most recent was a month ago at ELP when she ran a steady third in a field of 11 going a mile on the lawn. Since that run she has worked three times, all at a half mile at Churchill. Luis Saez earns the mount for the second time.
#8 – Ramsey Pond (4/1 ML fav) – As you likely guessed by the name, this Divisidero filly is owned by Kenneth Ramsey after buying her for $100K as a yearling (1/10). Her dam, by Malibu Moon, ran six times and she won half of those starts earning her owners $39,000. She has one other foal of racing age. This gal will be making her debut performance and she’s conditioned by Saffie Joseph (M = 0/7). This will be her second start with her first coming a bit over a month ago in South Florida at GP when she went 7 ½ furlongs on the grass, only missing the Winner’s Circle by ½ length, finishing as the bridesmaid. She’s put in two works at Palm Meadows since that race and her last morning effort was over three panels in 35.9 seconds (3/19). Tyler gets the call to ride her for the first time.
#10 – Starry Night (9/2) – Justify (Turf = 16.9%) is the stallion behind this filly and her unraced dam is by Discreet Cat. Mama has had four other foals of racing age, but none of them won at age two or banked $100,000. This young lady hammered for $120K as a weanling in 2022 (14/16) and then only brought $65,000 last year as a yearling (62/70). She has raced one time and it was at Woodbine on 7/20/24. On that day she finished 5th, beaten only by two lengths while competing at 6f on the turf. Kevin Attard will make his debut (over the past five years) at KD with a baby when he saddles this filly for X-Men Racing and Madaket Stables. He’s sent her out for three morning drills since her last run, all at a half mile and all at WO. Jose will be her pilot.
Final Analysis – Although #10 is interesting to me in that Kevin Attard has decided to ship a 2YO to KD for a MSW race for the first time in at least the last five years, my pick is #9 Ramsey Pond. She made a big splash in her debut at GP and her last work indicates that she’s sharp and ready to roll. Tyler is a bonus and I think that she breaks her maiden today.
KD5:082924 – 6 ½ furlongs on the Turf. 16 fillies are entered, 12 will start. The number of FTSers = 5, those with one start = 5, one has two previous starts, and one has three.
#3 – Sweet Ambition (8/1) – Hot 2YO trainer, Mark Casse (M = 2/25, 8.0%) conditions this filly by War Front (T = 19.1%). Mom is by Looking at Lucky and she is unraced, however, she’s thrown four others of racing age. Her fist baby was Gronkowski who won $3.3 million by going 4 for 18, including a win in his third start overseas as a 2YO and also two runner-up finishes in G1 events, one overseas and one being the Belmont Stakes. Today’s contestant demanded $350K as a yearling in 2023 (3/17) and this will be her third start – her first two were at Colonial Downs. Florent will be her reinsman.
#9 – Pepper Girl (5/1) – Quality Road (T = 14.3%) is the sire of this filly who was thrown by a War Front mare that won three times in her 11 attempts ($190K). One of those wins was at first asking on the turf at SAR as a 2YO and her highest EBSF was 99, also on the lawn at Belmont. She’s thrown one other foal of racing age – a 3YO by Medaglia d’Oro and that filly is already two-for-eight with her first win coming in her second start at 2 in a stakes race on the grass. This gal was a $240K RNA as a yearling and will be Paulo Lobo’s fifth baby to start in a MSW race here at KD since 2019 and he’s looking for his first victory. She’s started one time up at Horseshoe in Indianapolis and on that day she started slowly but ran on to finish fourth, only 2+ lengths shy of the winner. Lobo then shipped her to Lexington for two half mile drills at the Thoroughbred Center. Joel Rosario will slip his boots into the irons.
#10 Beach Wedding (4/1 ML fav) – Brendan Walsh (7/30, 23.3%, ROI = $4.24) will sling the saddle across this FTS Mendelssohn (Turf = 13.3) filly. Her dam is by Street Cry and she won four of her 12 tries, earning $211K and a third-place trophy in a G3 event. She’s tossed one other foal of racing age, but that one has not had any success yet. Her first seven works came at KEE and then she shipped to Northern Kentucky for six more spins on the All-Weather surface at Turfway Park (50 furlongs). She did produce a 3f work of 36.2 seconds on 6/7/24 in her second work (6/52) and 48 flat for a half mile at TP on 7/26/24 (6/46). Tyler will be the race manager aboard this filly.
Final Analysis – Although Brendan Walsh is always loaded for bear at KD (#10), my pick is #9 Pepper Girl. Both her mom and only half-sibling of racing age won as babies and I also like her broodmare sire, War Front. Although trainer Lobo has never won with a juvenile in a MSW race at KD over the past five years, he’s good with youngsters and I think he’s very underrated. Let’s give her a shot!
Bonus – Race #6 on Thursday, 8/29/24 at Saratoga is also an event for 2YO MSW runners. Although he’s the second pick on the ML, I like #9 T Kraft, trained by HOF Bill Mott. First, Mike Ryan signed the ticket for this Connect colt as a yearling for $110K (4/36), and two of her seven half-siblings won at age two. Also, his last race was impressive. After leading throughout, he was barely run down by Chancer McPatrick who is expected to make his next start in the Hopeful, next Monday here at the Spa, although he still posted an 80 EBSF.
