2YO Maiden Special Weight ‘Picks, Plays and Pontification’ – Churchill Downs, 05/26/2024

May 24, 2024

Churchill Downs, Race 3 – Sunday, May 26, 2024

By The 2YO EdgeMan

CD3:052624 – 5f on the Dirt.  As the Cool Kids like to say, ‘I’ll have boots on the ground’ (yes, I’m excited!) for this 2YO MSW affair restricted to horses that sold or RNAed for $50,000 or less in their most recent auction.  The field will be made up of 11 colts and one lone filly with eight of the 12 being First-Time starters, two have had one start, one has competed twice, and one is the wily veteran with three previous runs.  Not a star-studded list of trainers, but many fine ones including Ennis with two, and one each from Camamori, Danner, John Alexander Ortiz, Sharp, and John A. Hancock.  Over on the sire side, I’ve circled Union Rags and Flameaway who both have two set to go, with one apiece from Maclean’s Music, Lookin at Lucky, and Catalina Cruiser.  Also, don’t forget about the three Freshman sires – Instilled Regard, Caracaro, and Thousand Words (Spendthrift).  

#2 – La Marinera (7/2) – The filly is one of the four runners in here with experience – she’s competed twice previously and was the bridesmaid in both events (the first at KEE and the most recent up at IND), earning a total of $21,800.  She’s by the Newby sire, Instilled Regard, and is by a Curlin mare who was 0 for one on the track and this is her first foal.  Today’s competitor was purchased as a weanling back in 2022 at Keeneland’s November Breeding Stock Sale for a mere $3,700 (5/6) and then sold as a yearling at KEE Sept for even less – only $1,000 (28/28).  Kelly Fernandez trains and she’s not been out for a drill since her last run.  Rogello Miranda will get his first turn in the saddle on her.

#3 – Probationer (30/1) – The stallion behind this colt is Lookin at Lucky and his mama hails from Into Mischief.  She was four for 40 while an active race mare and delivered $161K in purse money to her owners.  Her first victory came in her fourth start at age two over this Churchill Downs strip in September of her freshman year, earning her an EBSF of 76.  This is her first foal of racing age.  The hammer price was a scant $3,700 when he went through the sales ring last year as a ‘short yearling’.  Calo Caramori (0 for 3 in 2YO MSW affairs at CD Spring over the previous five seasons) trains this debut starter.  He’s got five works under his belt, all at Keeneland, and they amount to a total of 18 furlongs.  Calo will turn over the reins to Oscar Villarreal.  

#8 – Concrete Cruiser (8/1) – Joe Sharp will saddle this firster who, as his name implies, is sired by Catalina Cruiser.  His mama is by Smart Strike, but she was not much of a race mare having gone 0 for nine on the track.  She’s thrown two others, with only one having made it to the races so far, and that 5YO is only two for 18 with $63,000 in earnings.  Today’s combatant has gone through the sales ring three times – initially, he sold as a ‘short yearling’ for $25,000 (13/41), then later that year demanded $50,000 as a yearling down in Texas (5/41), and most recently, he RNAed for $45,000 in the March 2YO Sale down in Ocala.  Joe has sent him out for six morning spins, all at Keeneland (two over the All Weather strip) for a total of 22 furlongs.  His most recent, on 5/22/24 was timed in 48 seconds flat from the gate (3/29).  Tyler will slip his boots into the irons.

#10 – Strummin (7/5) – The Morning Line favorite has raced on three previous occasions (a perfect three for three in the money), with his best being a runner-up finish in his last on 5/2/24 here at CD in the $250K KY Juvenile, getting beaten less than three lengths.  This colt is one of the two in here from Flameaway and he’s from a Kantharos mare that won seven of her 44 races and banked $119K.  Today’s runner has one gelded full bro of racing age, but he’s not made it to the starting gate yet.  Owner Randle Glosson only forked over $12,000 for this colt when he was a ‘short yearling’ (37/51) back in January of 2023 at Keeneland.  Conditioner John A. Hancock has found time for one half mile work for this guy since his last afternoon effort over at Ellis Park on 5/19/24.  Victor Lebron gets the mount for the fourth straight time today.

Pick – #8 Concrete Cruiser – #10 Strummin is clearly the class in here, but his odds are very likely to be minuscule and he may need a bit of a break as this will be his fourth run in roughly 50 days.  And #3 may be a live long shot, but I always only pick one (and one only) so, I’m going with Joe’s colt (even though he is 0 for eight here at CD with the babies in MSW races in the spring over the prior five years).  This dude’s daddy was a solid First-Crop sire last year and his last work was nice.  I like the fact that he’s prepped six times in the morning and has a good base of panels covered and even though Mama wasn’t a great racer, she comes from a really good broodmare sire.  Mix in the best rider in this race by a pretty fair margin and I land on this colt.

The weatherman says it will likely be a sloppy mess for this one, but that’s ok.  Enjoy it and start looking forward to next week when we’ll do it all over again with the babies.  Thank you – your support is very much appreciated and I wish you all the best, my Edgie Warriors.

Contributing Authors

The 2YO Edge Man, Past The Wire

The 2YO EdgeMan

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