Churchill Downs, Race 7 – Thursday, November 2, 2023
By 2YO EdgeMan
CD7:110223 – Six furlongs over the dirt. The full compliment of sixteen fillies have been put forward for this event – four will be on the AE list. Three quarters of the main field (9) will be racing for the first time, one will be making her second start, one has been out twice previously and one experienced gal will be making her fifth career outing. Let’s break this thing down and see what we’ve got…
#1 – Just a Coed (8/1) – The hot sire of two-year-olds – Justify – is the stallion behind this FTS filly and her dam won five of eleven starts, banking $159K (this is her first foal of racing age). She hammered for $280K as a yearling last fall (33/78) and she’s trained by Bret Calhoun. Calhoun is 2 for 16 (12.5%) with firsters in the fall at Churchill in 2YO MSW events over the previous five years (2018 thru 2022), but boy, has he ever made those two winners count. In 2018, he scored with a 54/1 shot and then followed that up in 2019 with a 24/1 priced baby. Bret’s had this gal training right here under the Twin Spires since June 10 – Fifteen total works. She’s flashed two bullets over five furlongs with her best being her second to last work – on 10/12/23, she worked alone and went in 59.8 seconds (1/8).
#3 – Figgy (12/1) – Rusty Arnold will sling the saddle across this homebred Candy Ride filly who will be making her first start and she was produced from an unraced Mineshaft mare. Two of her six foals of racing age earned north of $1/4 million and one won as a 2YO in her second outing at Kentucky Downs. Keeneland has been this gal’s home since at least the last day of April when she graced the track for the first time in the morning. Since then, she’s been out 16 more times and her last workout was a small bullet – 36.2 seconds for three panels (1/9).
#7 – Candy Lover (3/1) – the most experienced runner in the field is also the Morning Line fav. As you may have guessed from her name, she is by Twirling Candy and sold for $230K last year as a yearling (12/82). Mom, also by Mineshaft (like above), was unraced and this is her first foal of racing age. After starting her career at ELP in June, Cherie DeVaux shipped her up to NY for two at Saratoga and then most recently she competed over at BAQ. In this last race, she ran with a nice, stalking style, gaining ground through out and finishing second, beaten by only a half length. Since that race, she’s worked twice at Saratoga – both of those half mile breezes were strong – one was 2/80 and the last was a bullet, (1/44). Florent will take the reins for the first time.
#8 – Union Mast (6/1) – Brendan Walsh conditions this homebred firster who is sired by Union Rags. Her Quiet American dam was 0 for 2 on the track and has not been very successful in the breeding shed with the six horses that she’s thrown that are racing age. Walsh was 1 for 13 (7.7%) with 2YOs FTSers in MSW races at CD’s Fall Meet from 2018 thru 2022. He started her in training in early September here at Churchill and has breezed her a total of eight times – none overly fast. Tyler gets tapped to ride.
#11 – Mink’s Palace (5/1) – Another homebred who will be making her first competitive run is by Palace Malace. Her mama was winless in six tries and this is her only foal of racing age. Eddie Kenneally trains and he’s looking for his first winner from FTSers at this level in the fall at Churchill since at least 2017. Lexington has been home to this gal since the end of August (if not longer) when she began with a series of three works at the Thoroughbred Center. Eddie then began working her at Keeneland where she was out on seven mornings. Her best move was her second most recent – on 10/22/23, she went a half mile in 48.2 seconds from the gate for a huge bullet (1/101). Luis Saez will be in the irons.
Pick – #1 Just a Coed – I don’t love the rail, but I do like that she’s by Justify and mom was a winner in almost half of her starts. Calhoun can win with firsters in the fall at CD and you can see from above that he’s been known to occasionally drop a bomb. She’s worked 61 total furlongs on today’s oval and I really like that five furlong effort going under the 12 second per furlong clip back on 10/12/23. Cowboy Stables is the lucky owner of this filly in the great Game of Silks – so, best of luck to that owner!
Race 7 at Churchill tomorrow will again be one of ‘our races’, so come right back here to the wonderful PastTheWire.com for analysis of that race. After all, it not ALL about the Breeders’ Cup – I’ll take these babies over that, any day! Take care and stay safe & well, my Edgie Dynamos.
