2YO Baby Talk – Churchill Downs R8

June 26, 2024

Churchill Downs, Race 8 – Friday, June 28, 2024

By The 2YO EdgeMan

CD8:062824 – 6f on the Dirt.  Fillies.  12 entered.  The number of FTSers = 11 and those with only one start = 1.

#1 – Totally Justified (8/1) – It’s no surprise that this First-Time starter hails from the mighty Justify (ALL = 20.2%, FTS = 21/94, 22.3%) and his broodmare sire is Europe’s powerful Galileo.  Mom banked $180K by logging a race record of 2/10 and she’s throw two others, one that has cashed in on the track for $664K (4/27).  This filly sold in the top half of her class when she went for $285K as a yearling last fall (29/70).  Crafty trainer Rusty Arnold (M = 4/8, 50.0%, ROI = $2.95), has had her out for just five morning moves (17 furlongs) and her fastest was her second effort, on 6/5/24 she went three panels in 35.6 (1/17).  

#3 – Atomic City (4/1 ML fav) – Conditioner Eddie Kenneally (M = 5/15, 33.3%, ROI = $2.24) will saddle this FTS Twirling Candy (ALL = 18.5%, FTS = 18.2%) filly who was tossed by a mare by the recently passed, Tale of the Cat.  On the track, mom was a three-time winner in 16 tries and brought home $153K.  One of her scores was a victory in her first outing as a two-year-old at PIM in April.  Her foals have not lit the world on fire and there are four others of racing age.  The bidding ended at a solid $360K on this gal last year when she was a yearling (8/70).  Her work tab shows six works, totaling 22 furlongs and one of those was a bullet.  Two drills back, on 6/13/24, she went 4f in 45.4 (1/24).  Eddie will give Luis Saez a leg up.

#4 – Black Dog (9/2) – The mating of Quality Road (ALL = 16.4, FTS = 14.7%) to a Declaration of War mare is responsible for this filly who sold for the mean price in her class – $375K – last year as a yearling (22/43).  Mama wasn’t much on the track (1/6, $43K) and this is her first foal.  Tom Amoss is the conditioner and he’s prepped her for her first afternoon event by sending her out for eight breezes, her first was at 3f, her most recent was over 5f, and the rest were all at a half mile (32 furlongs).  This gal’s 5/8th of a mile spin was done in 1:00.2 and it earned her a ‘small bullet’ (1/10).  Tom will hand the reins to Jose.

#10 – Miss Martini (6/1) – Steve Asmussen (M = 22.6%, ROI = $1.50) trains this filly that comes to us from Curlin (ALL = 13.6%, 12.9%).  Will Take Charge was the stallion of her mare and she won two races in eight tries ($139K), including a score at Penn National in September of her juvenile season.  Today’s runner was not a huge hit in the yearling auction as she was sent to her new owner for the ‘relatively light’ amount of $225K (32/39).  Steve feels that six works, including her last at five panels (22 furlongs), is sufficient to prepare her for her debut run.  Two drills back, on 6/12/24, she went a half mile from the gate in 47.8 (5/31).  Ricard Santana, Jr. will slip his boots into the irons.

#11 – Olivia’s Potion (5/1) – Steve’s second filly in this race will break one gate to the outside of her stablemate and this one is by Good Magic (ALL = 13.9%, FTS = 12/82, 14.6%).  Tiznow’s daughter is this gal’s mama and she was only one for 11 as a race mare with earnings of a scant $54K.  She’s done good work in the breeding shed, however, with four out of seven foals of racing age surpassing the $100K earnings mark and two were winners as juveniles in MSW races with one of them being a first-out winner over this CD strip in November.  $400K was the ticket that L & N Racing signed for her last September at KEE when this gal was a yearling (5/45).  Steve turns the keys over to Tyler.

Final Analysis – I certainly wouldn’t fall over in shock if any of the five above find the Winner’s Circle and the Dallas Stewart charge (#6) has one race of experience (5f) under her girth, which can only help her.  By the way, this filly is owned by ‘2024 Hundred’ in the exciting Game of Silks

However, My pick is #3 Atomic City as she nearly sold in the top 10% of her Twirling Candy class and that dude can flat get it done with firsters.  Kenneally is due for a win and of course, this is his last shot at this meet.  She exploded out of the gate in her work on 5/25/24 and how about her move on 6/13/24?  It was simply off the charts and I think that she gets it done today in this solid field.The next stop on this train is Ellis Park.  They open their doors on Thursday, the 4th of July, and the Conditions Book says they’ll run a baby race as the lid lifter.  It looks like their purse level for our races will be $71,000, so I’m excited. 

It’s been a fun Churchill Downs Spring Meet and, as always, I’ve enjoyed the ride with the best Edgies that there is.  Stay safe, cool, and happy!

Contributing Authors

The 2YO Edge Man, Past The Wire

The 2YO EdgeMan

The 2YO EdgeMan started following horse racing when his family moved to Louisville, KY when he was 9 years old.  The story goes that he...

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