2020 Kentucky Derby Odds and Trifecta Pick

July 31, 2020

It’s been a tough year for sports … All sports, including horse racing.

The novel coronavirus crashed into 2020, holding its middle finger up while coughing and sneezing itself all over our intentions for the year. 

It’s been like a neverending red-eye flight from hell. Trapped in a seat that’s too small for you, that you’re not allowed to get up from while constant turbulence wracks the airplane; and worst of all, there’s no entertainment because in-seat monitors are broken.

But that is all coming to an end. We still can’t get out of our seats, but the entertainment is slowly coming back. Baseball is here, along with an NBA restart, hopefully the NFL, and of course horse racing.

We lost many great races, but tracks have reopened all across the US and the world. Unfortunately, Augusts’ slate of major races was reduced with the loss of the Arlington Million Stakes. However, the Alabama Stakes in Saratoga is coming up, and of course, the Woodward Stakes, and Kentucky Derby are both scheduled to run on Saturday, September 5th. 

Here are the 3 top and last positions in the odds for the Kentucky Derby:

Premier Star300/1+30000
Rowdy Yates300/1+30000
Uncle Chuck8/1+800
Honor A P9/2+450
Tiz The Law2/1+200

Also, let’s look at the projected field for the Sep. 5th event at Churchill Downs and their vote counts:

1. Tiz the Law, 272

2. Authentic, 200

3. Honor A.P., 120

4. Ny Traffic, 110

5. Art Collector, 100

6. King Guillermo, 90

7. Dr Post, 80

8. Ete Indien, 74

9. Modernist, 70

10. Mischevious Alex, 50

11. Country Grammer, 50

12. Enforceable, 43

13. Swiss Skydiver, 40

14. Shivaree, 40

15. Max Player, 40

16. Rushie, 40

17. Major Fed, 38

18. Storm the Court, 36

19. Thousand Words, 33

20. Anneau d’Or, 32

Tiz the Law is Constitution’s son and recently smashed the competition in The Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on June 20th. In fact, his near 4-length win was the fastest time since 2004. 

Tiz the Law is the odds on favorite at 5-2. But we are like to see him race on August 8th at Travers in Saratoga, so we’ll have to keep an eye on the odds depending on the results. If he loses, we might get a better price on him at the derby; if he wins by a mile, he may move to 2-1.

But the long-short of it is Tiz the Law is the best horse in the field. His sub 1:44 time at Belmont screams that fact loud and clear to all who are listening. So, unless something crazy happens at the G1 Travers in August, I expect that Tiz the Law will be going on my boxed trifecta ticket and probably the number one spot on my trifecta and definitely on my perfecta.

The next on the list of favorites is at 9-2. Art Collector is looking to end up on a lot of sharp boxed tickets event though he has fewer votes than Authentic, Honor A.P., and Ny Traffic. The Thomas Drury Jr. horse won recently at Keeneland and will probably be in the field on August 9th at the Ellis Park Derby.

Third on the list is Honor A.P. at 5-2. This horse recently stole the show at the Santa Anita Derby and is officially the best in the west. Plus, some experts think he has room to improve. Now, many might immediately have Honor A.P. above Art Collector on their tickets because of this. However, that would be a mistake — well, maybe not. You never know.– But this is the order that I will be filling out my trifecta ticket unless something drastic happens between now and September 5th. 

Darkhorse to Consider

Cezanne has gone 2-for-2 and just had a fantastic showing at Santa Anita early this June. Although I’ll be stacking the top three horses in my trifecta, boxed trifecta, and Tiz the Law in a perfecta or two, I think this horse is worth a small punt at 20-1. The only real issue I see is experience. If this horse gets room to run, he could very well win the Kentucky Derby. That said, I don’t think the young horse has the experience to beat the top three’s likes. However, a top-five or six finish is almost assured.

@jonathanstettin Boom! Both Pick 3's around the single! Stacks! #Membershippays

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