Whether you breed, buy, sell, own, ride, or train thoroughbred racehorses, you want to win The Kentucky Derby. If you say you don’t, odds are you are lying. After all, our game doesn’t just provide the greatest two minutes in horse racing, it’s the greatest two minutes in sports. The wealthiest and most powerful people in the world spend untold wealth and effort trying to get in the gate. There is no thoroughbred race like it, and winning not only makes you part of racing history, but history period. It’s The Kentucky Derby. Even if you have deemed yourself not worthy, or won’t allow yourself to dream that high, deep down it’s there.
Even bettors want to cash the winning Kentucky Derby ticket. Not only for the lucrative wagering opportunities, but for the inherent bragging rights that go with being right in the big dance. They start handicapping months in advance. The connections begin their preparations three years in advance, sometimes more if we factor in planned breeding. Is there even a mathematical formula to calculate what goes into trying to make the gate on the first Saturday in May?
Some pretty wily connections have expended considerable effort and money only to continually fall short of making the gate, let alone winning the race. That has to be frustrating when one hit wonders get lucky and make it and even win it at times. No matter what you do, or how you play, or how much you spend, or even know, there is no guarantee you get to The Derby.
Zayat Stables, run by Ahmed and Justin Zayat, are doing something right. Having entered the game at the highest level in 2006, they have already made the gate. They have made it three times actually. Each time they’re run second, and each time they’ve exuded class and humility in the toughest of defeats. I always say how you lose tells a lot more about your character than how you win.
Bodemeister probably ran good enough to win the race plenty of years. He set fast fractions and held on gamely to I’ll Have Another. Nehro ran a bang up second to Animal Kingdom who was tough to deny when right. Pioneer of the Nile ran a good second to the huge longshot Mine That Bird. There are a lot of lessons to be learned in The Sport of Kings. One of the ones we learn early is there are a million ways to lose a race, but only one way to win. The Zayats learned this lesson in what is their biggest Kentucky Derby disappointment to date, Eskendereya. This promising colt was heading to the Derby off a 9 plus length win in The Wood Memorial. This followed an 8 plus length win in The Fountain of Youth. He was the likely favorite and looked to give the Zayats their best chance yet. One of those million ways to lose is scratching two weeks out due to a leg injury. Eskendereya never raced again.
You would be hard pressed to argue the Zayats have not been knocking on the door. Until now that is. Now thanks to a colt with a misspelled name, courtesy of a Jockey Club mistake, they are banging on the door. You bang long and loud enough, you just may get in. American Pharoah is no newcomer to the scene. He was the two year old Eclipse Award winner, and this without starting in The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If he wasn’t enough, Zayat Stables will also be starting Mr. Z and El Kabeir in The Derby.
The Zayats bred American Pharoah and knew he was special early on. Everyone who has ever worked around him said he was special and had a presence about him. He was also fast. Really fast. He was a second and a half faster than anyone around him. His trainer, Bob Baffert, has a pretty good record getting to and even winning The Derby, and he has been high on him since day one.
I spoke to Ahmed Zayat about this promising colt. He is a realist. He understands now is the time to deliver on the promise the colt has shown. He won’t allow himself to think past the next start. Though difficult to temper his enthusiasm, he knows what really counts, lies ahead. What is different to him this time is the fact they knew. They knew from day one they bred and had something special. Ahmed felt The Arkansas Derby was just what the doctor ordered. American Pharoah showed he could sit off a horse and be just as effective. He expected to win and expected to win smartly. Prior to the race he gave jockey Victor Espinoza specific instructions, no show boating. Ride your race and if you are in front by six lengths shut him down. Watching the race, it seems Victor complied but couldn’t avoid the 8 length triumph. I would venture it’s a nice feeling to tell your jock in a Grade 1 Kentucky Derby prep, shut down at 6 lengths.
Justin Zayat is equally excited. What makes this so very special to him is the fact they bred American Pharoah, and he is the first champion they have ever owned. We know how good Bodemeister was and Justin feels American Pharoah is considerably better.
While American Pharoah comes into the run for the roses off as smashing a victory as anyone in recent years, the race is far from a one horse affair. What’s different to me about this year’s running is it doesn’t seem as deep as most years. I think the top contenders have pretty much separated themselves from the others and I am having a hard time finding someone who looks like they will jump up. There is plenty of time for handicapping though.
Past the Wire extends its deepest condolences to the family and friends of trainer Mike Mitchell who has passed away. May he RIP.
High Five
This week’s high five goes to jockey agent Brian Beach. Brian has managed to get his jock Victor Espinoza on The Kentucky Derby favorite two years in a row. This year he threw in one of The Kentucky Oaks favorites as well. Not too bad and congratulations Brian and Victor.
Low Five
Nice pick 5 Woodbine but low five on the 25% take out.
