The stampede is set. 20, yes, count ‘em, 20 three-year-old Thoroughbreds will vie for what many refer to as the greatest prize in North America horse racing—the Kentucky Derby.
Being run for the 148th consecutive time, not even interrupted for any wars including the Civil War, the Kentucky Derby winner will go down into the history books with the inaugural winner, Aristides.
The field is the largest in North American horse racing something more common in the United Kingdom and Europe. The inaugural Derby field consisted of fifteen colts.
The morning line favorites are Zandon at 3-1, who drew the 10 chute, and in post 3 is Epicenter at 7/2 followed by Messier at 8-1 breaking from post 6, 10-1 Mo Donegal who will start on the rail at number 1 and Taiba at 12-1 wearing the number 12.
Six horses are long at 20-1, nine even longer at 30-1 including the Also Entered Rich Strike and Rattle N Roll.
Brad Cox has three starters, Todd Pletcher, Tim Yakteen and Kenny McPeek have two runners each, and D. Wayne Lukas’ entry, Ethereal Road drew the post in the next county, number 20.
The Japanese horse, Crown Pride, accepted the invitation having won his points race, the UAE Derby. The Koichi Shintani trainee is the grandson of Japan’s super sire, Sunday Silence. He will break from post seven.
Known as a pacesetter is Summer Is Tomorrow breaking from gate four giving him very good position to go to the early lead. Messier will likely sit just off the pace. Julien Leparoux will need to be aggressive coming from post 17 on Classic Causeway. It will be a three-dimensional chess match coming around the clubhouse turn as they vie for position to rate the backstretch.
Possessing a good kick and breaking from gate 10, Zandon is a contender if he doesn’t run like he did in the Toyota Blue Grass—rallying from last to win by 2 ½ lengths. Flavien Prat will have to hustle to the inside if he wants a chance on the stretch.
Breaking from post three with an amazing turn-of-foot Epicenter could bolt to victory if Rosario can get to the colt in the position on the stretch where he can utilize his talents. The Asmussen trainee likes the lead as he did in wiring the Risen Star and has stamina shown in the Louisiana Derby, but the Kentucky Derby is a race of a different color. It can be lost on the first turn.
With the new contiguous starting gate, the issue of starting from gate 16 where the auxiliary four gates adjoined the main gates angled in slightly creating a traffic “yield.” However, starting from post 16 and beyond is still a hill climb through New York traffic for Cyberknife, Tawny Port, Zozos and Ethereal Road.
Check out Past The Wire’s Early Kentucky Derby run-down by Keeneland Dan and Jimmy Mcnerney. And, take PTW’s Annual Kentucky Derby/Kentucky Oaks Seminar.
148th Kentucky Derby Post Positions. Click for link for Derby site.
| 1. Mo Donegal (Pletcher/I. Ortiz) 10-1 |
| 2. Happy Jack (O’Neill/Bejarano) 30-1 |
| 3. Epicenter (Asmussen/Rosario) 7/2 |
| 4. Summer Is Tomorrow (Seemar/Barzalona) 30-1 |
| 5. Smile Happy (McPeek/Lanerie) 20-1 |
| 6. Messier (Yakteen/J. Velazquez) 8-1 |
| 7. Crown Pride (JPN) (Shintan/Lemarie) 20-1 |
| 8. Charge It (Pletcher/Saez) 20-1 |
| 9. Tiz the Bomb (McPeek/B. Hernandez) 30-1 |
| 10. Zandon (C. Brown/Prat) 3-1 |
| 11. Pioneer of Medina (Pletcher/Bravo) 30-1 |
| 12. Taiba (Yakteen/Smith) 12-1 |
| 13. Simplification (Sano/J. Ortiz) 20-1 |
| 14. Barber Road (J. Ortiz/R. Gutierrez) 30-1 |
| 15. White Abarrio (Joseph/Gaffalione) 10-1 |
| 16. Cyberknife (Cox/Geroux) 20-1 |
| 17. Classic Causeway (Lynch/Leparoux) 30-1 |
| 18. Tawny Port (Cox/Santana) 30-1 |
| 19. Zozos (Cox/M. Franco) 20-1 |
| 20. Ethereal Road (Lukas/Contreras) 30-1 |
| 21 AE: Rich Strike (Reed/Leon) 30-1 |
| 22 AE: Rattle N Roll (McPeek/Graham) 30-1 |
Where It All Began
Churchill Downs is named for John and Henry Churchill, who leased 80 acres of land to their nephew, Colonel Meriwether Lewis Clark Jr. (grandson of explorer William Clark). Clark was president of the Louisville Jockey Club and Driving Park Association, which formed in 1875.
In 1872, his father-in-law, Richard Ten Broeck, an accomplished horse breeder and trainer, introduced Clark to horse racing. They attended the English Derby at Epsom Downs outside London, and the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp.
First run at the same distance as the English Derby, 12 furlongs (1 1⁄2 miles), the distance of the Kentucky Derby was changed to its current 1 1⁄4 miles (10 furlongs) in 1896 by new track owner, William E. Applegate. Purchasing the facility in 1894, Applegate also commissioned the famous twin spire grandstand in 1895 and began the tradition of adorning the winner of the Derby with a garland of roses in 1896.
In front of an estimated crowd of 10,000 people, a field of 15 three-year-olds contested the first Kentucky Derby on May 17, 1875. Trained by future Hall of Famer Ansel Williamson and piloted by famed jockey Oliver Lewis, Aristides was the victor over Volcano in a time of 2:37.75. A horse named for Clark’s father-in-law, Ten Broeck, a future hall of famer, would finish fifth. (Ten Broeck participated in the Great Baltimore Stakes of 1877.)
Lewis rode Aristides to a second-place finish in the 1875 Belmont Stakes bested by his stablemate, Calvin, both owned by H. Price McGarth.
The first Belmont Stakes was run at Jerome Park.
Who has the edge in the Post Position Draw?
Some assumptions will be anecdotal, based on gut feelings and the relative draws of key contenders. Other conclusions will be based on cold, hard data—specifically, the post position statistics meticulously compiled by Churchill Downs since the starting gate was first introduced for the 1930 Kentucky Derby.
How many winners have broken from post 1? What’s the win percentage of post 15? What percent of horses finish in the money (first, second, or third) when breaking from post 5? Who was the last horse to win from post 14? How about the last horse to finish in the money from post 17?
If you find yourself asking any of these questions, we’ve got you covered with a convenient chart breaking down all the Kentucky Derby post position data:
| Post No. • 2022 Derby Starter • Post Position Record • Win % • Last Winner/ITM |
| 1. Mo Donegal • 92-8-5-5 • 8.7% • Ferdinand (1986) |
| 2. Happy Jack • 92-7-5-13 • 7.6% • 27.2% • Affirmed (1978) |
| 3. Epicenter • 92-5-6-8 • 5.4% • Real Quiet (1998) |
| 4. Summer Is Tomorrow • 92-5-6-4 • 5.4% • Super Saver (2010) |
| 5. Smile Happy • 92-10-8-4 • 10.9% • Always Dreaming (2017) |
| 6. Messier • 92-2-8-3 • 2.2% • Sea Hero (1993) |
| 7. Crown Pride • 91-8-6-6 • 8.8% • Mandaloun (2021), Justify (2018) |
| 8. Charge It • 91-8-5-5 • 8.8% • Mine That Bird (2009) |
| 9. Tiz the Bomb • 88-4-6-8 • 4.5% • Riva Ridge (1972) |
| 10. Zandon • 85-9-6-9 • 10.6% • Giacomo (2005) |
| 11. Pioneer of Medina • 81-2-6-4 • 2.5% • Winning Colors |
| 12. Taiba • 77-3-3-3 • 3.9% • Canonero II (1971) |
| 13. Simplification • 75-5-5-7 • 6.7% • Nyquist (2016) |
| 14. Barber Road • 65-2-6-6 • 3.1% • Carry Back (1961) |
| 15. White Abarrio • 60-6-2-1 • 10.0% • Authentic (2020) |
| 16. Cyberknife • 49-4-3-3 • 8.2% • Animal Kingdom (2011) |
| 17. Classic Causeway • 42-0-1-2 • 0.0% • None Forty Niner (2nd, 1988) |
| 18. Tawny Port • 34-2-4-0 • 5.9% • Country House (2019) |
| 19. Zozos • 29-1-1-0 • 3.4% • I’ll Have Another (2012) |
| 20. Ethereal Road • 17-1-0-1 • 5.9% • Big Brown (2008) |
Starting Gate Stats
• Post 1 is often dreaded since it’s difficult for horses to secure racing room while breaking from the inside of a large field. But while post 1 hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986, post 2, post 9, post 12, post 14, and post 17 have endured even worse luck. Post 14 hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Carry Back in 1961, and horses breaking from post 17 have gone 0-for-42.
• Not every Kentucky Derby features a full field, so inside posts are more likely to compile high win percentages than outside posts. In a 10-horse field, each post has a 10% chance at producing the winner. In a 20-horse field, each post has a 5% chance.
• Keeping the above in mind, it’s noteworthy how many Kentucky Derby winners have broken from outside posts in recent years. Seven of the last 11 winners (64%) started from post 13 or wider, suggesting unencumbered trips are more important than saving ground in the Kentucky Derby.
• But based on a strict reading of the statistics, post 5 is the best position a horse can hope to draw. Not only has post 5 produced the most winners (10), the most runners-up (eight, tied with post 6), and the highest win percentage (10.9%), it also produced a top-five finisher in every Kentucky Derby from 2012 through 2019. This impressive streak included the victorious duo of California Chrome (2014) and Always Dreaming (2017).
• Post 15 has been particularly advantageous in the last decade, producing Kentucky Derby winners Orb (2013), American Pharoah (2015), and Authentic (2020). Post 7 has also fared well, churning out Justify (2018) and Mandaloun (2021).
By Maribeth Kalinich and Amy Euler with an edited press release from Kentucky Derby
UPDATED 5/2/2022 7:14 PM EDT
Photo by Eric Kalet
