In the Travers, Forte will face all three winners of this year’s Triple Crown races (NYRA/Coglianese)
By Laura Pugh
It’s a busy, busy weekend with the H. Allen Jerkens, Personal Ensign, and Travers Stakes all lined up at Saratoga. Championships are on the line as the third quarter of the season comes to a close, meaning all the top Thoroughbreds will be gearing up to leave a lasting impression over the next couple of weeks… and it all starts now.
H. Allen Jerkens Stakes
Here we see the unbeaten upstart New York Thunder pitted against the red-hot Baffert duo of Arabian Lion and Fort Bragg. Toss in Brad Cox’s Verifying, who is returning to the site of his first-ever start and win and you will find a bag full of excitement.
This race looks to have a quick pace on paper. New York Thunder know one way to win. Gun it for the lead and run his opposition off their feet. He faced graded stakes for the first time in last month’s Amsterdam Stakes, where he won by 7 ½ lengths, but the field turned up short and soft. The H. Allen Jerkens might have turned up short, but definitely not soft.
Fort Bragg and Arabian Lion both have the type of speed to match New York Thunder, and you can better believe one of them will take it right to him in the early stages while the other gets the garden spot. Given that Fort Bragg ran the race of his career in the Dwyer by dueling on the front end with Jim Dandy Stake runner-up Saudi Crown, I’m betting that horse will be him.
This will ensure a hot pace for both Arabian Lion and Verifying to stalk. On paper, Arabian Lion has the recent form over Verifying, but the latter has a way of running big when you least expect it… especially if he can sit the perfect trip. Unless he were to get boxed in, there is a big chance he could do just that.
Personal Ensign Stakes
All the focus is on Nest vs. Clairiere, the Curlin Daughters, Round Two, and it should be. Clairiere has two big Grade One wins under her belt this season and hasn’t finished worse than second. However, one of those second place finishes came at the hands of Nest in the Shuvee Stakes.
There, Nest came in off a several month-long layoff. She should have been rusty, but she won decisively using her tactical speed to take advantage of the lack of pace. On paper, this is likely to happen again as the only speed in the race is to come from Malloy who is 50-1 on the morning line.
Idiomatic and Secret Oath both look to make a splash, but neither is without questions. Idiomatic hasn’t faced top tier, and one has to wonder if Secret Oath has tailed off. The latter has been given a freshening coming into this race, and with her history, she fires best when fresh, but will it be enough for the win???
Travers Stakes
You don’t need to follow racing that closely to realize this division, the 3-year-old division is the perfect definition of a cluster.
This race pits the three Triple Crown race winners, Mage, National Treasure, and Arcangelo against last year’s Champion Juvenile, Forte. Forte also has wins in the Florida Derby, Jim Dandy, and Fountain of Youth, giving his resume the edge in this division. But make no mistake, he can’t afford another loss… Not with the aforementioned three, among others, in close pursuit.
The main speed in the Travers is National Treasure. He won the Preakness Stakes by going to the front and lulling the rest of the field to sleep, saving up for a big burst of speed down the stretch. He could be confronted by Scotland who flashed early speed when he wired the Curlin Stakes, but before that he never gave any indication of being the type to win with early speed. That day he dueled with 3 for 13, third-stringer, Il Miracolo.
While National Treasure seems to have a decisive tactical edge, Forte and Arcangelo both have shown in figures that they are superior. It could be that the deciding factor in this race doesn’t come down to “who is the best”, but instead, who handles mud the best. This would give the edge to Forte, who is the only horse with a win in the slop.
Conclusion
A lot is riding on this weekend’s races, especially in the 3-year old division. Divisions could be wrapped up with neat little bows when it comes to the 3-year olds in the H. Allen Jerkens and Travers Stakes, while a new rivalry… and new division leader could emerge from the Personal Ensign.
As always, the sport of racing never ceases to deliver on drama. Who do you think comes out on top?
