Travers headliner Sovereignty wins the Kentucky Derby (Jenny Doyle/Past The Wire)
By Jim Gazzale
It’s amazing how quickly the Saratoga meet comes and goes every year. Feels like just yesterday I was watching Sierra Leone storm down the stretch to win the Whitney, but like they say “like a stone time rolls on”. It’s been an interesting meet, CAWs, Aqueduct level cards at times but it’s Saratoga so we’ll miss it come October. A very intriguing and loaded card is set for Saturday, 5 straight Grade 1’s capped off by the 2025 Travers. Unfortunately not much high level turf stakes, would assume that’s NYRA being overly afraid of rain potentially ruining a card.
Spot Plays and Analysis
Race 8
The 2 horse Gallant Greta is the morning line favorite and for good reason, 2nd start off a mild layoff for Mike Maker and is working lights out. She has her lone win in a maiden at Aqueduct in which she was favored, came back in June and regressed mildly against winners and finished a tough second. She will be stretching out here and will likely be on or close to a slow to moderate pace. These turf routes at Saratoga have been favoring closers so that’s where my eyes went in this race. The 8 Loveumissumeanit won last out with a late closing kick and I think she can do it again here. She’s 5/1 on the morning line and will likely stick around there. Others I will be including are 6 Dividend Recap, 9 Tralee Girl, and 10 Summer Whirl. I’m willing to toss the 12 Tongue Twister.
Bet Recommendation: Win bet #5, Exacta Key Box 8 with 2,6,9,10
Race 9 The Personal Ensign
Personally I just don’t think Thorpedo Anna is the same horse she was last year. Last year she nearly caught Fierceness in what was one of the most exciting races of the year. This year she had a so-so performance in both the Azeri and Apple Blossom, lost at Churchill Downs but had an excuse as she was completely closed off going into the first turn and finished 7th, Comes back in another stake at Churchill Downs and beats a weak field. I’m against her again on Saturday. I think Leslie’s Rose has really been rounding into form and she had a great performance in the Shuvee. I will be betting her to win here hoping she can sit behind some horses and pounce at the top of the stretch.
Bet Recommendation: Win Bet #6, Exacta Key Box 6 with 1,3,4
Race 10 The H. Allen Jerkens
This is the race of the day in my opinion and should be a fun one to watch. Many different ways to go in the race. Patch Adams will likely go off favored in this one as he won the Woody Stephens last out in an impressive performance. I’m personally going to look elsewhere, Patch Adam’s’ best races have come on an off track and I personally am hoping the fast track is a great equalizer and he takes a step back. I have a working theory on sprinters shipping in to Saratoga and running without a work over the dirt or experience over the dirt and just not taking to it. Captain Cook at 12/1 stood out to me. His figures fit, first start off of a trainer upgrade. Will likely be a huge price and he gets Ricardo Santana who has been riding lights out this meet. If Captain Cook can move forward he can be dangerous in here. Others that intrigued me and will be using are 2 Midland Money, he has a race and multiple works over the Saratoga dirt, lightly raced and he can pop here. The 6 Smoken Wicked and 8 Madaket Road are two that I think can run big races in here as well.
Bet Recommendation: Win Bet #7 Captain Cook, Exacta Key Box 7 with 2,4,6,8
Race 11 The Ballerina
The 7 horse Scylla has been running well in stake race after stake race and has just not gotten over the hump. You start to ask yourself if maybe the horse just isn’t a winner, you see it a lot with horses that are just comfortable running behind others, Soldier Rising comes to mind. I’m against her here, especially since she will likely be favored or second choice. The 5 Claret Beret jumped out to me, her figures fit, she has been firing bullets over the Saratoga dirt as well. I think she’s sitting on a huge performance and Saffie has been running well over the past few weeks. The 9 Hope Road is an option but will likely be favored or at 3-1 at the most. She has not run over this dirt before and she will have to take to it quickly as she likes the front and will be breaking from the way outside. With the amount of speed signed on Zeitlos becomes interesting as she is a horse that has a significant late punch. The 2 Brightwork is undefeated at Saratoga, and she has been working well. Can she reverse her form here?
Bet Recommendation: Win Bet #5 Claret Beret, Exacta Key Box 5 with 2,6,9
Race 12 The Forego
One of my favorite hits from this year was Crazy Mason in the Carter in April. He has devastating late kick if he can stay within range of the field early. Lately he has been getting questionable rides just parking him 12-15 lengths out the back of the field and just leaving him with way too much work to do. The pace scenario should play directly into his running style here, or at least I hope. He gets a jockey switch back to Manny Franco who rode him perfectly in that Carter win. I will be against Bookem’ Danno purely base on gut feeling, this horse has done nothing but win lately, now he will be stretching out an additional half furlong. I will be using the two Brad Cox horses, but begrudgingly, his horses just have not been running well in stake races recently. I’m going to use Scotland who is 2 for 4 at Saratoga and is making his second start of his 5 year old season and may still have some improvement in his future.
Bet Recommendation: Win Bet #6 Crazy Mason, Exacta Key Box 6 with 1,2,7,8
I’m looking forward to a great day of racing and cashing some tickets. Thanks for reading and good luck, enjoy Travers Weekend and Week 0 of College Football. The fall, football, and Breeder’s Cup are around the corner.
