Timberlake victorious in the Rebel (Coady Photography)
By Laura Pugh
Last week, I questioned if Timberlake would be professional enough to win the Rebel Stakes. In 1 minute and 44 seconds, he answered with an emphatic affirmative, winning the race by two widening lengths.
During his juvenile year, Timberlake displayed an abundance of speed and talent. Unfortunately, that isn’t always enough to overcome issues upstairs. He raced very erratically in his very first start. He then showed a tendency to become overeager, pulling on his rider in the Hopeful Stakes and the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. Both times he finished very flat in the stretch.
The Rebel Stakes represented his first start in three months, and given his stubbornness, I was worried that being so fresh would increase that stubbornness. Much to my surprise, Timberlake was the definition of professional during the post parade and race, leading to closing splits that bested those run by the older horses in the Razorback.
There are those that will say Timberlake got the perfect trip and still didn’t “dominate.” I would have to disagree on both accounts.
Given Timberlake’s history, being in heavy traffic, boxed and hemmed in between horses early on was NOT where he needed to be. That is the type of setup that sets younger, headstrong horses off. It gets their blood pumping and creates the perfect storm that leads to them pulling and becoming rank. The fact that Timberlake handled this like a consummate pro, shows that he has grown a lot mentally, and will be a plus if he’s able to keep that newfound cool into the Kentucky Derby.
Secondly, Timberlake made a big sweeping move, once able to get outside. Off a layoff, even with a horse that looks the best on paper, it’s preferable to save ground and not risk giving the horse too much, since horses coming back off layoffs are often left a little short in their first starts. Despite this, Timberlake ran an individual split of approximately 24.60 in the final internal quarter, then finished his final 1/16th in 6.09.
For reference, Octane, the winner of the Razorback ran his internal quarter in about 24.85 and his final 1/16th in 6.31, after tracking a pace only marginally faster than what was run in the Razorback. The Honeybee winner, Lemon Muffin, stalked a much softer pace and had splits of 25.15 and 6.37.
Given that the internal quarter is run mostly around turn, the fact that Timberlake’s time was as quick as it was is even more impressive, as is the fact he continued at that strong pace through the finish. Yes, the victory was only two lengths, but a final 1/16th of 6.09 is going to be very hard to beat, especially if he can make a similar turn move in his subsequent starts. The fact that Common Defense ran a huge race, while also saving ground, should not detract from how good Timberlake was in this spot.
Moving forward, Timberlake still needs to show that this professional new leaf of his is here to stay. He is said to be targeting the Arkansas Derby, which should draw a similar, if not slightly larger crowd, and we all know the circus that the Kentucky Derby can be. He will need every bit of professionalism to keep his cool for those races. He also needs to take another step forward, since as it stands now, his numbers put him near the top, but not as the best of this crop. He is ranked 3rd by Equibase Figs, and his 93 BSF and 115 TimeformUS are hardly overwhelming.
However, there is still room for improvement, and this is the time of year where we see the cream start to rise. Based on his performance Saturday, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Timberlake come back even better in the Arkansas Derby.
