Kentucky Derby Radar
As we roll into the final weekend of February, the Road to the Kentucky Derby begins its most aggressive turn. This Saturday’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream aren’t just prep races; they are litmus tests for a new era of racing.
The Derby remains the undisputed “Pinnacle” of American racing, but the roadmap to Churchill Downs has been repaved. If you’re still handicapping using the “Old Methods” of horse racing, you’re likely chasing ghosts. From the death of the Dosage Index to the rise of the “Apollo-beaters,” the game has fundamentally shifted.
The Myth of the Two-Year-Old Foundation
For over a century, the “Curse of Apollo” was the most formidable stat in sports: no horse had won the Derby without racing at age two since 1882. Then came Justify in 2018, followed by Mage in 2023. These aren’t outliers; they are a signal.
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was never exactly a Derby-winning factory, but it has produced two winners, Street Sense and Nyquist. However, going that hard late in the two-year-old year takes a physical and mental toll. Today’s trainers are more patient, and the modern thoroughbred is bred for a singular peak. We are seeing that you don’t need a deep foundation of juvenile starts to win—you just need the talent and the “fight” to peak at exactly the right time.
Dosage and Figures: Stats in the Rearview Mirror
Remember when we wouldn’t touch a horse with a Dosage Index over 4.00? In the modern era, that conversation has practically vanished. With horses like American Pharoah (4.33) and Justify (4.20) shattering those ceilings, the “speed vs. stamina” ratio has been recalibrated.
The truth is, speed figures and minimums don’t win the Derby—adversity does. On any given Saturday, a stat is just a number until a horse like Rich Strike or Mine That Bird reminds us that the best “trip” beats the best “number” every time. I want the horse that has looked trouble in the eye and fought through it bravely, not the one that’s had a “perfect” path to the winner’s circle.
Proof of the “One-Day Peak”
To further illustrate how the “best horse” doesn’t always win—or how the effort of the Derby can take everything a horse has—look at the winners from the last 30 years who never won another race after their flowers were draped at Churchill:
- Grindstone (1996): Retired due to injury just five days after his win.
- Fusaichi Pegasus (2000): The multi-million dollar “super horse” never found the winner’s circle again in three subsequent starts.
- Monarchos (2001): Clocked the second-fastest Derby ever (1:59.97) but went 0-for-3 afterward.
- Barbaro (2006): Tragically injured in the Preakness; his dominant Derby was his final completed race.
- Mine That Bird (2009): The 50-1 legend went 0-for-9 after his shocker in the mud.
- Super Saver (2010): Winless in two starts after giving Todd Pletcher his first Derby.
- Orb (2013): The favorite who appeared to be a superstar but went 0-for-4 following his win.
- Always Dreaming (2017): Dominated the Derby but finished his career on a five-race losing streak.
- Country House (2019): Awarded the win via DQ; never raced again due to health issues.
- Rich Strike (2022): The 80-1 miracle maker remained winless in six subsequent starts before retirement.
The Point System’s Collateral Damage
The current point system, while providing a clear “win-and-you’re-in” structure, has some heavy side effects:
- The Filly Ceiling: It’s harder than ever for a filly to take on the boys. Because Oaks points don’t count for the Derby, a truly special filly has to beat the colts twice just to get into the gate.
- The Sprint Ban: By design, the system excludes sprinters. This has fundamentally changed the Derby’s pace, often removing the “rabbit” that used to ensure a blistering first quarter.
- The Double Peak: Horses now have to peak twice—once to secure the points and again five weeks later. Finding the horse who is coming to a peak, rather than one who used their “best” race just to qualify, is the key to finding value.
The Heavy Hitters: Baffert and Brown
You can never count out Bob Baffert. Whether he’s under fire or under the radar, he is dangerous with anything he puts in the gate. He knows how to get a horse to 1 ¼ miles, regardless of the hurdles in his way.
On the other side of the coin is Chad Brown. He is quietly one of the best ever to get his horses to peak in the Derby without winning his yet. I think there is more than one with his name on it and he looks loaded this year. His horses are trained to peak on that first Saturday in May, and it feels like his name is already etched on a trophy—it’s just a matter of which year.
The Wood Memorial: Respect the Timing
There is a narrative that the Wood Memorial has lost its credibility as a serious Derby prep. That’s nonsense. The timing and distance are perfect and over time it has had its share of winners. The recent lack of winners is probably more about the sheer volume of points races available elsewhere than the Wood Memorial itself.
This Weekend’s Watchlist: Searching for “Fight”
Building on the philosophy of looking for the horse that “faces adversity bravely” and is “coming to a peak,” here are the key contenders for this weekend’s major preps.
The Rebel Stakes (Oaklawn Park)
- Silent Tactic (Mark Casse): Showed true grit in the Southwest Stakes, passing nine horses in the final stretch. Does he need a perfect trip and set up to do that?
- Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek): Represents the value of a horse who hasn’t peaked too early. McPeek is a master at navigating the “electric atmosphere” with longshots.
- Litmus Test (Bob Baffert): Comes in sitting on what looks to be a career effort to date and Baffert is exemplary at using Oaklawn Park to launch Derby contenders.
The Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream Park)
- Napoleon Solo (Chad Summers): An undefeated G1 winner making his season debut. He is the ultimate modern “Apollo” archetype—pure talent trying to overcome a layoff and limited starts albeit he did run at two.
- Bravaro (Saffie Joseph Jr.): A gritty contender who earned a massive figure despite being caught late last time. Did he learn from that adversity?
- Solitude (Saffie Joseph Jr.): Tried to carry his speed a distance for the first time in a key points race with other speed signed on.
| Category | Stat/Fact |
| The Apollo Breakers | Justify (2018) and Mage (2023) are the only winners since 1882 with no 2YO starts. |
| Dosage Reality | Since 2000, over half of the winners had a Dosage Index of 3.00 or higher. |
| Field Size Factor | The 20-horse field is the ultimate “intangible.” The “best trip” (Horse, Trainer, Jockey) wins as much or more than the “best horse.” |
| The 50-Point Club | The winner of the Rebel or Fountain of Youth earns 50 points, essentially locking their spot in the gate. |
Kentucky Derby Radar:
My early list is usually short. Paladin looks like a true Kentucky Derby horse and reminds me of Sierra Leone. The nice thing about him is he does not share Sierra Leone’s quirks which at times put him behind the eight ball and cost him when it counted. Renegade is progressing nicely, and you want to see a forward moving horse getting better with every start. Canoletto is a one time winner in his debut at a mile. He is scheduled to make his next start, his first around two turns in The Tampa Bay Derby. This goes against a lot of what I look for but we have to adapt to today’s game and talent is talent. This colt looked especially talented to me.
