The final big three Kentucky Derby prep races run on Saturday and our man Geo Sette chose the Blue Grass at Keeneland to attack. As you have come to expect Geo provides his detailed, planned, researched and methodical plan of attack to all our Past the Wire readers.
The beauty that is the Spring season, the beauty that is Keeneland. Perhaps there is no bigger sign that the three-year-old season is in full swing than the opening of Keeneland’s Spring meet and the field is set for the $1,000,000.00 Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.
Inaugurated way back in 1911, this Kentucky Derby prep race has produced many horses that have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby; however, it’s been an incredible 31 years since a horse has pulled it off, the last being Strike the Gold in 1991.
There have been horses who have won this race, then faltered in their Run for the Roses but went on to have fabulous racing careers, some capturing victories in the Preakness or Belmont Stakes.
In 1985, Chiefs Crown won this Blue Grass Stakes and was a huge 1/5 favorite in the Kentucky Derby, but ran a disappointing 3rd to Spend A Buck. He then was 2nd in the Preakness and 3rd in the Belmont, each time as the betting favorite.
This race will always provide a great deal of potential to surface a budding star, you just never know when a Champion will emerge out of the race. This year we have a field of 12 starters, all of whom began their careers as a juvenile and have had 6 or less career starts.
As always as I go through my process in handicapping a race, I draw a picture in my head as to how I see the race shaping up, this so I can provide my complete analysis. The pace usually makes the race and it looks to be entirely true with this event. The following is my precise anticipated order of finish. It wasn’t an easy handicap as there were many compelling angles to dissect and ultimately consider, but in the end you need to be decisive. So with that, here’s my very best analysis as I believe six of these horses can win on their best day with the other six being outsiders. Here are my top 6 contenders in precise order and I will offer a quick bullet on the rest of the field too.
# 4 Zandon “Top Choice”
This colt is making only his 4th start, his 2nd off a layoff and as a three-year-old. I watched each of his 3 career starts with a very careful eye. He has the look of a horse that is progressing well, one with much more room for improvement. In his last start, the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fairground, he blew the start, hopped and spotted the field several lengths, and then had to race 5-wide coming for home. Even still he showed a willingness to compete as he was chasing Epicenter ( who went on to win rather easily and then came back to look fabulous in winning the Louisiana Derby and can very well end up being the Kentucky Derby favorite). Flavian Prat is up for Chad Brown, connections I trust entirely. Brown as you know is widely successful and has shown recent success in this race, winning it in 2018 with Good Magic, who went on to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby and win for fun later on in the Haskell. Last year Chad just missed with Highly Motivated who came up short vs Essential Quality. This son of Upstart was purchased for $170,000 and seems to be sitting on a big race. I am concerned that in all three starts he’s had trouble at the start or during his trip; but as he makes his debut over this Keeneland oval, his works have been steady. With a solid break he is likely to be sitting a good trip perhaps just a few lengths off the pace setters, and then mount his best charge as they turn for home. He’s my top contender for the win money.
Geo Sette
#1 Command Performance This guy is an attractive gray colt who began his career in New York with great promise, precocious and very willing to compete, but has disappointed in his last few races. Still a maiden, he’s run 2nd three times in his four career starts over 4 different surfaces. This son of Union Rags has the bloodlines to run all day, so I feel he’s built for the distance and will eventually run even longer. He began his career in the mud at Saratoga, didn’t have a good trip and still finished 2nd in a field of 9. He then ran a big race in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park, running an impressive 96 Beyer and was racing wide but still finished with urgency. He then was ambitiously entered as a maiden in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but failed to menace late over the Del Mar soil. He made his three-year-old debut as the 1/9 favorite at Tampa Bay Downs going a mile and 40 yards in a MSW event and ran a very disappointing 2nd. He’ll be facing a colt who beat him by 5+ lengths that day. I am taking it for granted that he simply did not take to the Tampa Bay soil and just needed the race. Irad Ortiz is back in the saddle for Todd Pletcher ( who has won this race 3 times in 2005, 2008 and in 2015 with Carpe Diem). I am convinced that this colt is talented and we haven’t seen his very best . I feel he’ll have compelling value at the windows. If he fires his very best with a good trip, he’s capable of winning it all, even though he comes into this race as the field’s only maiden. If he takes to the Keeneland surface, watch out. I’m expecting a big stretch run out of him.
#9 Rattle and Roll This colt is one of the more experienced in the race and he sports a rather dynamic win over this same Keeneland oval. Last October he trounced the field closing powerfully into a fast pace to win going away by 4+ lengths in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Cup Futurity. He had two losing efforts in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, but in that race, I believe he ran into a monster in Epicenter. Ken McPeek who won this race in 2013 with Java’s War again saddles the very capable Brian Hernandez who has ridden him in all but one start. He was working brilliantly going into the Louisiana Derby and now the barn is adding blinkers to his game. I like the fact they are coming right back with him, and if the pace is moderate to fast, he’s capable of a sweeping powerful close as they approach the final ¼ of the race. There’s likely to be some betting value with him too, and in my opinion should be used in many of your betting gimmicks. He’s my 3rd choice and a contender for sure if he gets the right pace and a clear path to mount his very best turn of foot. Last note, Hernandez won this race in 2020 with Art Collector.
#10 Smile Happy This son of Run Happy has been highly regarded since being purchased for $185,000. He’s lightly raced with just three starts but all have been rather dynamic. He won his debut last October here at Keeneland with a dominating effort. He looked professional winning his 2nd start, a huge step up to a Grade 2 event at Churchill Downs, again drawing clear and dominating the field. He then took a few months off and made his three-year-old debut in the Grade 2 Risen Star where he was the betting favorite and ran 2nd to Epicenter who went on to trounce the field in the Louisiana Derby. Just as my 3rd choice above, trained by Ken McPeek. He will be ridden by Corey Lanerie, who is a good rider, but I don’t always trust him when there’s a big battle going on. This colt has been getting stronger and obviously improving, and he’s likely to be the post time betting favorite. There’s no doubt that he’s a major contender to take this race and perhaps be greatly considered in the Kentucky Derby. For those reasons, he must gain your respect. He should be sitting a good trip and could be a menace during the stretch run. I’m just feeling he can get beat, especially if my top three all perform to the best of their abilities. I will use him in many of my betting formats, especially in my multi-race wagering opportunities. A true win contender for sure, but he’s my 4th choice in this handicap.
# 6 Emmanuel This attractive colt was purchased for $350,000 and will be making his first start outside the Florida circuit. He’s another entry from the Todd Pletcher barn and comes into this race looking fresh and fit with a series of steady breezes. Luis Saez up adds to his appeal and in my opinion the most likely pacesetter. He could easily be the best speed in the race and he has the jockey who typically excels while on the lead, so the attempt will be there to try and steal the race on the front end. I’m just not entirely sure he wants the 9 furlongs. His speed MUST be respected because if he gets to an easy lead and the fractions are slower than expected, he could potentially steal the race. I’m banking on him tiring during the final furlong, especially if pressed early on by # 2 Fenwick. Watch the board for betting action and keep close attention to the race fractions. Saez is a confident rider who won this race back in 2016 with Brody’s Cause, so there’s no doubt this guy will get an abundance of window consideration. He’s a threat, but he’s my 5th choice.
# 8 Etheral Road This guy, the son of Quality Road I consider the race wild card, saddled by legendary D Wayne Lucas who won this race way back in 2000 with High Yield. He’s been a slow starter, but packs fabulous closing punch and he’s been steadily improving. In my opinion he hasn’t shown his very best yet. His works for the race has been impressive. Definitely keep an eye on his support at the windows and if you’re looking for a horse to use in your deeper gimmicks like your triple and superfecta wagers, this could be your guy. He’s the last of my six contenders, do not ignore completely.
Lastly, here are my 7th thru 12th finishers, I will offer a quick bullet point or two to help you along the process of your decision making.
# 5 Volcanic Improving colt from the Mark Casse stable, should be closing from off the pace
#12 Grantham He drew a tough post, may be rushed up early which may challenge his ways later in the race. Gaffalione up for Mike Maker, perhaps a throw in for your Super Boxes and deeper gimmicks
# 11 Blackadder Nice looking colt who’s on the improve, but needs to show faster times to consider.
# 2 Fenwick Just recently graduated at Tampa Bay, wiring the field and defeating 1/9 Command Performance. I feel he’ll show some early foot and be part of the pace perhaps for 6 panels, but then likely to tire as they turn for home.
# 3 Trademark As much as I respect Victoria Oliver and her barn, this gelding seems up against it. I’m tossing him for sure.
# 7 Golden Glitter This son of Ghostzapper was purchased for $395,000 and won his first two starts, but in this group I would be shocked if he won. I’m tossing him too, he needs a softer spot.
So there you have it, it should be a great racing day with great cards at Keeneland, Aqueduct and Santa Anita. I’m hoping my analysis of this race will help you make an informed decision at the windows.
Let’s go and make some money.
Photo: Keeneland, Coady Photography
