Tampa Bay Derby: Can Anyone Beat No More Time?

No More Time captures the Sam F. Davis (G3) Feb. 10 at Tampa Bay Downs (Ben Baugh)

By Laura Pugh

After consecutive weeks of Kentucky Derby preps everywhere you look, this weekend we only have one. That one is the Tampa Bay Derby, which drew a field of 10, headlined by Sam F. Davis winner No More Time, and Chad Brown’s Domestic Product. However, neither horse has done enough to make the public think they are “unbeatable”, so who can, if any, upset them?

1. Heartened: This son of Grade One-winning Street Boss took a little bit to put everything together. Despite that, he never finished worse than third. In his most recent start, also his first win, he contested the pace for the first time in his career. His E-Figure jumped from an 89 to a 94. His final splits weren’t overly inspiring, but he did run some pretty quick internal second and third quarters, on top of trying a new style. The potential is there if he can keep improving. 
2. Everdoit: This colt is well behind in terms of speed figures. In his last start, the Sam F. Davis, he threw his rider, after going off at odds of 127-1. Connections must have some heavy Derby fever to keep entering this son of Gary D in spots that are clearly over his head. His best efforts have been when disputing the pace, giving me the impression that the most he’ll do is make things difficult for anyone who wants to go for the lead. 
3. Give Me Liberty: The Oaklawn invader is one of two maidens in this field. His connections are probably taking the shot seeing as his last two efforts. were second to Dimatic and Common Defense. The latter finished a good second to Timberlake in the Rebel Stakes, while Dimatic finished 5th in the same race. However, given the fact that he didn’t finish anywhere near either horse in those races, I don’t see him having success here. 
4. Good Money: Another Chad Brown entrant, this one by the hot-as-fire stud Good Magic. Good Money has only one start in his career, but it was a winning one. I like that he sat off the pace early on, then made a middle move to engage the pacesetter, won that battle, then held off the closing odds-on favorite, Acclaimed Victor, rather easily. This is a step up in class, but Good Money gives the impression that he’s up to the task.
5. Domestic Product: The more experienced of the two Chad Brown entrants comes into the Tampa Bay Derby off a second-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes. That day he stalked a slow pace set by the eventual winner Hades. He has never shown a lot of early speed, and even when the pace is slow, he typically sits back and stalks, even when it would benefit him to engage the early leader. He seems a little too hyped in this spot. 
6. Catire Vizcaya: The son of Anchor Down is in the same category as Everdoit. Numbers and PPs don’t match up to the others in the least. Also like Everdoit, his best efforts have come when he attempts to wire the field. Given the inside speed, that is unlikely to happen here.
7. No More Time: The only bad effort that the Sam F. Davis winner has on his resume came in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, where he was rank after hopping at the start, and wound up making a four-wide bid before flattening out. In the Sam F. Davis, he got a much better start, so good, that he wound up making the lead and wiring the field. The horse who contested the lead with him early on finished last of those that finished the race, beaten by over 20 lengths. He doesn’t need the lead to win, as we saw in his maiden-breaking victory, but it is safe to assume that, with a good break, he’ll be close to the pace early on. Given his past performances, he definitely deserves to be the favorite here. 
8. Crazy Mason: The son of Coal Front has a record of 7-2-2-1, which is definitely consistent. He’s the most experienced in the field, but it doesn’t bode well that his only wins came in starts that were NOT stakes. When it comes to stakes races, he is a big old goose egg out of four. He might be able to improve into the superfecta, but it is doubtful that he wins.
9. Grand Mo the First: This son of Uncle Mo comes into the Tampa Bay Derby as a bit of an enigma. He’s never really had a bad effort, never worse than third in his four-start career, and has won two of them. Those wins came in his first two starts, both sprints. He then traveled from Gulfstream to Santa Anita and finished third. The race was his first start around two turns, but also his first attempt over turf, which is perplexing considering his success on dirt in his first two starts. He then returned to Gulfstream for the Swale Stakes, finishing third after getting bumped, steadying, and losing a ton of ground. His post here won’t help him save ground, but it could help him avoid trouble. I feel like he could have a good shot in this spot with a better trip.
10. Sturdy: The second maiden in this field, and like Give Me Liberty, he’s kept some good company, running with stakes winners like Locked and Drum Roll Please. Also like Give Me Liberty, he never came close to running with those horses, which gives the impression that he is very outmatched in this spot. 

Picks: No More Time, Good Money, Grand Mo the First, & Crazy Mason

Race Summary: While there is some speed in this race that is down towards the inside, there isn’t enough to make me think we will see a crazy fast pace. I could see an honest pace early on, with some moderate pressure, but more than likely the 1 and 2 will dictate the early pace while Good Money, No More Time, and Grand Mo the First settle into a stalking and/or pressing roll. 

Once the top two start to tire, No More Time should be the first to make the front, assuming he breaks well, with the other two chasing him. Whether they are good, or seasoned enough to run him down remains to be seen.