Summer Stakes at Saratoga

Saratoga. (Chelsea Durand)

By Kevin Gazzale

We’ve made it, Saratoga Summer 2025 officially. I will be bringing you picks and analysis for every stake race dirt and turf taking place at The Spa this summer. I have spent the past 3 months training an AI model based on handicapping parameters I value most. I have been feeding races from past Saratoga meets along with results to fine tune and create a horse handicapping machine. It’s called the G-Line Index and it will be ranking each horse in the race based on a host of handicapping factors. Along with these picks and rankings I will provide my suggested bet structure and wagers. With all that being said, lets get started with the first stake race of what should be another fantastic summer. 

Thursday 7.10 

Race 5 The De La Rose Stakes 1st Divison 1 Mile (Inner Turf)

Field of 8 gets the stake schedule started on Opening Day going 1 mile on the inner turf. We saw that early front-end speed tended to hold on the inner turf last week during the Belmont at the Big A at Saratoga July 4th Weekend Meet. 

The G-Line Index ranked #3 Deep Satin first in this one, coming off a last out 5th in the Mint Julep at Churchill Downs. Has been training well and should sit a nice trip righ off or right on the lead. Heredia was highly ranked, but we will be tossing as she will be favored. 

Filling out the top 5 for this race were as follows:

1. #3 Deep Satin 7/2
2. #4 Heredia 3/1 
3. #7 Way to Be Marie 8/1
4. #8 In Our Time 4/1
5. #1 Alluring Angel 6/1

Recommended Plays $50 Budget:
• $20 Win on Deep Satin
• $5 Exacta 3 over 1,8.7
• $5 Exacta 1,8,7 over 3

Race 8 The De La Rose Stakes 2nd Division 1 Mile (Inner Turf)

Another field of 8 will face off on the inner turf later in the card. The G-Line Index had #1 Ozara slightly ahead of #2 Do Gooder. Based on the difference in their ML odds it is likely more +EV to play around Do Gooder over Ozara, however we respect the G-Line Index, and we trust the process. Ozara will hopefully sit the trip and the summer of Dylan Davis can start in 2025. 

G-Line Index Rankings:

1. #1 Ozara 
2. #2 Do Gooder
3. #4 Movin On Up
4. #3 Pocha Mucha
5. #5 Fun with Flags

Recommended Plays $50 Budget:
• $20 Win on Ozara
• $5 Exacta 1 over 2,3,5
• $5 Exacta 2,3,5 over 1

Friday 7.11

Race 7 The Coronation Cup (Grade 3) 5.5f Turf

Field of 7 gets us started for our only stakes action on Friday. The G-Line Index circled Abientot as the top selection. Hopefully she can sit the trip with a closing run from Past The Wire favorite Dylan Davis aboard. 

G-Line Index Rankings:

1. #6 Abientot
2. #3 Cloe
3. #1 Make Haste
4. #7 Gata Brazil
5. #2 Italian Soirée 
6. #9 Twirling Beauty
7. #4 Laurice

Recommended Plays $74 Budget:
• $20 Win on Abientot
• $5 Exacta 6 over 2,3,7
• $5 Exacta 2,3,7 over 6
• $1 Trifecta 6 over 2,3,7 over 2,3,4,7,9
• $1 Trifecta 2,3,7 over 6 over 2,3,4,7,9

Saturday 7.12

Race 8 The Bowling Green Stakes (Grade 2) 1 ⅜ miles Turf

Field of 8 gets us going on Saturday, Far Bridge getting back to his preferred marathon distance out of LSU Stables (Geaux Tigers). The G-Line Index liked Far Bridge stretching back out so let’s press some plays around him. 

G-Line Index Rankings:

1. #6 Far Bridge
2. #7 Harrow
3. #8 Corruption
4. #5 Webslinger
5. #2 El Rezeen

Recommended Plays $64 Budget:
• $10 Exacta 6 over 2,5,7,8
• $2 Trifecta 6 over 7,8 over All

Race 11 The Diana Stake (Grade 1) 1 ⅛ miles Turf

Field of 6 in the showcase race of the weekend. She Feels Pretty has dominated this division so far this year and the G-Line Index thinks that continues. Let’s press some plays around her. 

G-Line Index Rankings:

1. #1 She Feels Pretty
2. #5 Dynamic Pricing
3. #2 Choisya
4. #4 Excellent Truth
5. #6 Be Your Best
6. #3 Lady Claypool

Recommended Plays $60 Budget:
• $20 Exacta 1 over 2,5,6

Sunday 7.13

Race 9 The Quick Call Stakes (Grade 3) 5.5f Turf

A field of 7 ends the first weekend, no morning lines yet for this race as I am typing but it looks like Governor Sam will likely be favored, Irad/Weaver coming off an impressive 2YO campaign. The G-Line Index agrees as Governor Sam is ranked first, so let’s try and play this smart and press the opinion here. 

G-Line Index Rankings:

1. #2 Governor Sam
2. #1 Jet Sweep Joe
3. #3 Grayscale
4. #6 Supersonic Blue
5. #4 No Evidence

Recommended Plays $60 Budget:
• $20 Win Governor Sam
• $5 Exacta 2 over 1,3,4,6
• $5 Exacta 1,3,4,6 over 2

Hopefully we can piece some things together this weekend and come out profitable. Thanks for reading!