Recapping Jim Dandy weekend and a look ahead to Whitney Weekend
Kevin Gazzale
I missed a few weeks but we are back as we head into my favorite weekend of the Saratoga Summer. I attended Friday and Saturday last year and had front row seat to Sierra Leone dominating. I had a fantastic Friday and left with a large bank roll for Saturday and basically handed it all back and then some on Saturday. I did have Sierra Leone winning the Whitney so at least I left with a winner. Anyway let’s recap the weekend that was and look forward to next weekend where a few of my virtual stable horses are entered and I do think they’ll be live.
Weekend Thoughts
The Saratoga weather finally reared it’s head with a total washout on Wednesday and Off track Thursday and Friday. I stayed away for the most past on Thursday and Friday as I for the life of me cannot handicap off track conditions very well and I generally prefer turf racing regardless. Though on Friday I did make one play which was Local Knowledge in the Amsterdam, he looked like a horse sitting on a forward move and you just couldn’t trust Obliteration to move forward again after a huge effort on the comeback from running overseas. Gilded Bandit again did not run well which was a shame cause on paper he appears to be constantly sitting on a big race but just doesn’t fire. He has now run twice at Saratoga and lost by a combined 16 lengths. He may just be a Kentucky horse.
Saturday, Jim Dandy/Arlington Million Day
I went into Saturday with full fists ready for Colonial and Saratoga. I have been very poor at maiden handicapping so I have been avoiding those races all together recently. So I didn’t really jump into the Saratoga card until Race 7, I did not like Sassmaster as he just did not have much of a class edge and he would be coming off of it from the 1 hole. But man, he stuffed me into a locker. I had some win bets and exactas around the 2 Hop Sing with 6 Expect the Best. Expect the Best ran great at 18-1 but had nothing to show for it in the end. Iron Dome who had a promising Saratoga last year just has not improved and has run two straight stinkers now.
Heat Missile dominated race 8 almost immediately after Andy Serling said the horse wasn’t going to win.
Amberglen dominated the Lake George, I personally faded this horse as she had not run without Lasix yet and I was hoping for a mild regression. I preferred Lion Lake who has not really improved since her spring races at Gulfstream. Time to Dream just keeps racking up 3rd and 4th place finishes with no shot of ever winning.
Renegade looked like a monster which was nice to see. I had him singled in the Pick 5 and late Pick 3 along with a hefty win bet. It looked like he really had no shot until they turned for home and he started to chew up ground. Commandment doesn’t suck per say, but to me he kinda sucks. He hasn’t gotten any better since the Florida Derby, he’s a plotter grinding horse which is frustrating to watch and bet on.
Dakota Country absolutely ripped my heart out in the 11th, I had Joker on Fire to win everywhere and just got beat. Joker on Fire just ran too well to not get rewarded for it but that’s racing I guess.
Now for the Arlington Million, Paco Lopez sucks man. There’s no other way to put it. The ride he gave on Grand Oriente in the stretch was nauseating. I had win bets, exactas, Pick 5 anchor leg for $1,300. It truly looked like he was more concerned with running a longshot tiring horse on his inside into the rail than he was about Burnham Square on the outside. He’s basically standing in irons like it’s a god damn morning work out. In a million dollar race! Was just about as frustrating as it gets watching that moron ride. Personally I thought Burnham Square wanted longer, hopefully he keeps winning and inflates his price in the BC Turf cause I am still not sold on him. Lastly, Integration, this was his swan song, you cannot bet this horse in Graded Stakes anymore, he gets bet like crazy every race and he just never runs well.
Sunday, Curlin/Glens Falls
On Sunday I didn’t play much but I did manage to hit a solid win bet, exacta, and pick 3 around Creditworthy and Sea Strike in the Curlin. Sea Strike while uber impressive just strikes me as another annual Curlin winner that gets some play into the Travers and then just doesn’t run overly well. I still think about all the money i wasted on Scotland in 2023 and Dynamic One in 2021. But this year’s Curlin to me was more of an example that Chief Wallabee is a solid allowance horse, not really a graded stakes horse. I’ll touch more on that in my final thoughts below.
Looking Ahead to Whitney Weekend
A few of my virtual stable horses are entered Saturday, most notably Movie Night in the Test and I actually think the race sets up nicely for her. I will be betting her to win and hoping to get higher than the 7/2 morning line.
Some horses that jumped out at me while skimming PPs, 10 Il Sicilliano in the 7th race has run with Lasix 4 times since Feb 2025, he lost by neck, nose, neck, 2 lengths 2nd place finish. He gets Lasix back here at 6/1 and is rated first in Class rating on Brisnet.
Zulu Kingdom looks like he may be able to sit behind the impending battle for the front between, Mi Bago, Classic Q, Rhetorical, and Deterministic. But then again its NYRA turf racing so maybe they let Rhetorical roll along up front 24/48 and we get screwed. I like Zulu Kingdom’s closing kick here especially at Saratoga which he seems to like.
Pacific Avenue gets a major jockey upgrade, has been working out at Saratoga since the Belmont Derby, 5/1 ML and is highly rated in class. That’s where my eyes went. I’ll likely also be using Bottas in multis, 3rd off a layoff going a little longer which he make like.
Are we in a position to get a little value on Sovereignty at 3/1 ML? I can’t really trust Magnitude favored off of an off track wire to wire win. Antiquarian and Baeza were intriguing, would lean Antiquarian over Baeza just based on price. Anitqurian fell down at the start and then was completely wiped out in the Suburban where Phileas Fogg just rolled on the front end. 10/1 here feels generous.
Helen’s Revenge looks like a win bet for me in the 13th.
Virtual Stable Member Aerial Affair is back entered in Race 6 at 5/1, only one other horse in the race with a start under her belt. She jumped right back on the work tab after her debut. I’ll bet her to win, but if she loses again here I can’t justify following her moving forward.
Final Thoughts
This mid to late summer season is a great time to bet against former derby trail horses that are getting way overbet base off of losing performances against good horses. Chief Wallabee was probably the most notable one, Emerging Market in recent weeks. Bravaro went off at 4/5 on Saturday when his best finish in 2026 was 2nd by 5 lengths in the Holy Bull. Hopefully we get to see more and more of these horses continue to run back and lose at short prices until they find their actual level.
Thanks for reading, see you next week!
