Bob Baffert (Benoit Photo)
By Lucas Sigurdson
You’re not new here, I’m not new here. If there’s a name synonymous with modern-day thoroughbred racing – whether for the right or wrong reasons – it’s Bob Baffert. He’s the most polarizing figure in the sport and I wouldn’t say it’s particularly close. Controversies aside, it’s almost ritualistic that every year around this time, handicappers start circling the Baffert horse or horses they are homing in on ahead of the Kentucky Derby. There’s no denying he’s tasted success at the grandest stages in thoroughbred racing, and I’m sure he’s proven each of us wrong at one time or another.
Last year notwithstanding, Bob Baffert has had an entry in at least one of the Triple Crown races dating back to 1996 with Cavonnier. Over the course of the last two decades, you’d be hard pressed to place a wager on the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes or Belmont Stakes without Bob Baffert’s name somewhere on your ticket. Now, for the second year in a row, you’ll have to look for other angles (at least for the Derby) when you get to the betting window.
With the recent court decision to uphold Churchill Downs Inc.’s two-year ban of Bob Baffert from competing at its tracks, I’m afraid this year’s Run for The Roses will have the same mysterious taste as last year’s: top-tier talent, a few asterisks stemming from Baffert’s absence, and some long shots you wouldn’t even consider placing a wager on. Or would you?
If you remember back to 2022’s Kentucky Derby trail, horses like Epicenter, Mo Donegal, and Zandon were atop almost everyone’s lists. That is, until a lightly-raced, undefeated Taiba — formerly of Baffert’s barn — drew attention. As events would unfold, Churchill Downs Inc. would hand Bob Baffert a two year ban stemming from Medina Spirit’s post-race positive test of betamethasone following the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Taiba and barnmate Messier, another top name in handicapping circles ahead of last year’s Triple Crown, would be transferred to trainer longtime Baffert assistant Tim Yakteen’s barn.
A trainer under Baffert’s tutelage? Oh, yes please! Sign me up! Well…Taiba’s 5/1 post time odds didn’t look so hot as he finished 12th in the field of 20. Messier went off at 7/1 and finished 15th.
The story’s been written a thousand times by now: Epicenter and Zandon ran as impressively as expected, only to be bested by longshot Rich Strike, a morning-of entry into the race. If you’re anything like me, you’ve watched the skycam view of Sonny Leon weaving Rich Strike through the crowded field over and over again.
I bring this up only because I believe we could be headed down a similar path. Now, am I expecting an 80-1 longshot to capture the hearts of millions in the Derby and be thrust into a yearlong campaign amongst the sport’s top names? No. Am I anticipating another unexpected upset coming down the stretch in this year’s running? Crazier things have happened.
My theory all starts here with Bob Baffert’s crop of talented 3-year olds, spearheaded by Arabian Knight and Cave Rock. On March 1, horses listed as being trained by Bob Baffert will be permanently ineligible to run in the Derby. We’ve already seen several colts transferred out of Baffert’s barn – Reincarnate, Hejazi, Carmel Road, and Arabian Lion to Tim Yakteen; Fort Warren to Brittany Russell; Harlocap to Steve Asmussen; Gilmore to Brendan Walsh. Not all of these horses are on the Derby trail, necessarily, but all are now eligible to earn Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying points.
Now, the futures of talented colts Arabian Knight and Cave Rock, along with Faustin and National Treasure, remain uncertain. There’s some dust yet to settle with March 1 quickly approaching. It’s expected that these horses will find themselves in new barns over the next few days, leading to a massive shakeup in futures markets with big-point prep races upon us. If last year’s Baffert barn exodus taught us anything, though, it’s that there can be quite a drop off in performance from one barn to another. So, tread carefully. I, for one, am leaning towards fading his talented crop come Derby Day.
Looking outside of Bob Baffert’s barn and all of the uncertainty surrounding it, other Kentucky Derby early favorites include Forte, Instant Coffee, Tapit Trice, and Extra Anejo. I believe this field is shaping up to be awfully deep – gulp, my early pick is Signator, a 1.7m colt out of Tapit that I’ll be covering in my next piece – and I have questions regarding this year’s top contenders.
Will Brad Cox-trained Instant Coffee’s late-running style fare well in a crowded field? He chased down Two Phil’s in the G3 Lecomte Stakes in impressive fashion, sure, but my mind jumps to the 2022 Breeders’ Futurity. Instant Coffee ran into traffic, only able to finish fourth behind Forte, Loggins, and Red Route Run. Barring a massive pace meltdown, I’m a bit lukewarm on Instant Coffee’s closer tendency finding success in the Derby.
Can the aforementioned, Todd Pletcher-trained Forte improve upon his magical 2-year old campaign that saw him go 4 for 5, claiming three G1 victories in the process? If the Kentucky Derby were this Saturday, he’d surely be the morning line favorite, and deservedly so. Having not raced since the Breeders’ Juvenile last November, I’m anxious to see his 3-year old debut in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes next month at Gulfstream Park. Maybe I’ll be eating my words, rendering this piece questionable at best come March 4, but things just feel a little too good with Forte. As a novice handicapper, I’ve always trusted my gut more than anything. I fully expect Forte to be heavily bet and favored heading into Derby Day, yet I just find myself looking in other directions. What’s the fun in picking the favorite, anyways?
As I mentioned earlier, this field figures to be fairly deep, paving the way for some potential chaos down the stretch. With the uncertainty surrounding his crop of 3-year olds, Bob Baffert’s upheld ban makes things all the more interesting for me. As I mentioned earlier, I’m particularly high on Signator, and some other potential value plays I have my eyes on are Blazing Sevens, Litigate, and Two Phil’s. No matter what happens, I do know one thing for certain: I won’t be overlooking and laughing off any morning-of entries this year.
