Simplicity, Transparency, and Level Pools
Horse racing loves to turn simple problems into complicated ones. We study them, debate them, fight over them, write white papers on them, and by the time we’re done nothing changes except the handle trending the wrong way again. I recently sat down to figure out how to solve the CAW dilemma without losing the handle they bring—because whether we like it or not, if you rip 30–40% of today’s wagering dollars out of the ecosystem, the industry as we know it collapses at worst, drastically changes at best. Some tracks estimate CAW participation even higher on big days, reaching 45% or more of total handle, and north of 70% in certain exotic pools at times. You don’t need a model to know the snapshot is ugly.
I started outlining a series of rules—pages of them—ways to regulate, restrict, monitor, reassign, recalibrate, and reverse-engineer everything CAWs currently enjoy. The more I wrote, the clearer the picture became: It was too convoluted, too bureaucratic, and flat-out impossible for this industry to implement. Keep it simple, keep it simple. Remember, we can’t stagger the post times of the stake races on any given Saturday.
So I went back to one of my fundamentals:
Simplicity is the essence of intelligence.
And the solution, ironically, is might be remarkably simple.
The Core of Pari-Mutuel Wagering Has Been Violated
The entire premise of pari-mutuel wagering—the soul of this game—is players wagering against one another, under equal circumstances, with the same information, into the same pool, subject to the same takeout.
That’s the contract. That’s the integrity of the system.
But when one class of bettors has:
- direct or near-direct tote access,
- algorithmic probability recalculation in microseconds,
- the ability to dump massive batch wagers in the dying seconds,
- and rebates of 10–14% while most retail players get 1–6% at best,
…we no longer have a pari-mutuel system. We have a two-tiered marketplace masquerading as one.
I’m not afraid to play against anyone or anything—not sharks, not syndicates, not supercomputers—as long as the field is level. Right now, it’s not.
The Question the CAW Operators Never Want Asked
If I somehow found myself sitting on a CAW panel—and trust me, that’s a Twilight Zone episode I hope never airs—my first question would be painfully simple:
“If direct access to tote data, late-batch betting, and model-driven probability exploits don’t create an unfair advantage…
then why do you need them and why are they allowed?”
I don’t believe CAWs officially see unplayed or open combinations, but at this point I wouldn’t bet my last dollar on that either. When you allow a privileged access point into the tote, intended or not, you introduce the possibility of information leakage, modeling around latency, or outright manipulation. We lived through the Breeders’ Cup Pick 6 scandal. We know what’s possible.
Again: Why is any of this needed?
It’s not. So pull it. Take it away.
A Solution the Industry Can Implement—Right Now
We cannot, and should not, stop anyone from offering bigger perks to their biggest customers. Every industry does that. If ADWs or tracks want to run high-volume rooms and demand $1M, $2M, $5M in annual handle, so be it. But the rebate cannot come out of the hide of retail bettors or horsemen.
Here’s the fix—simple, clean, realistic, and implementable:
1. No Late Batch Betting. Period.
Not for CAWs.
Not for whales.
Not for anyone.
If the public can’t bet in the final 2 seconds without seeing a wildly changed odds board, then nobody should. Cut it off at a standardized time—5 or 10 seconds pre-start—industry-wide. No batch betting, none.
2. No Tote Access Beyond What Retail Players See
Models? Fine.
Algorithms? Fine.
Advanced analytics? Fine.
They paid for them.
But no special pipes, feeds, or visibility into the pools. No hacking potential. No latency exploits. No “inside lane.” Same data. Same timing. Same windows.
3. Publish Every CAW Wager—In Real Time
Not the identity of the bettors; privacy is fair.
But the wagers?
Every dollar. Every pool. In real time.
If you’re betting with a 10–14% rebate while the rest of the world gets 1–6%, the offset—the tradeoff—is transparency.
This alone will restore public confidence faster than any HISA, HIWU, NYRA, CHRB, or alphabet soup press release ever could.
4. Retail Players Do NOT Subsidize CAW Rebates
Tracks want to rebate CAWs heavily? Let them. High Volume Shops like Elite and Velocity want to offer big rebates to their players have at it.
But the money must come from anywhere but the core players pocket:
- Other revenue streams
- Marketing budgets
- Host-track fees
- Sponsorship
- Whatever creative accounting they use
Not from increased signal fees, not from higher takeout, and not from diminished retail rebates. If a track can’t afford to give whales 12% without picking the pockets of rank-and-file bettors, that’s the track’s problem—not ours.
5. Free Access to Public Information for All Players
If we’re leveling the field, level it properly:
- Basic past performances → free
- Vet reports → free and easily accessible
- Workouts → free with easily accessible videos
- Scratches and medication info → free and included in the past performances, ie: vet scratch and reason, all medications
- Track bias and sectional timing data → free and accurate
- Race Replays → Free and easily accessible, every track, every angle, every race
You want an educated customer base? You want handle? You want a skill game, act accordingly. Stop charging admission to the library.
The Result: A Truly Level Pool
CAWs keep their businesses.
Tracks keep the handle.
Retail bettors get transparency, fairness, and a fighting chance.
And the game—finally—reconnects with the essence of pari-mutuel integrity.
And here’s the news flash of all news flashes:
Even with every edge they currently enjoy, CAWs don’t win every race. They don’t hit every bet. They’re not unbeatable. Horses humble everybody.
Put us all in the same water with the same depth, and some of us can still swim with sharks. I’d play in that pool every day of the week.
Final Thought
You don’t fix this industry with walls of regulations nobody can implement. You fix it by going back to what made the game beatable, watchable, and trustworthy in the first place:
Fairness. Transparency. Equal footing.
Simplicity really is the essence of intelligence—and if racing finally embraces that, we might just save the game from itself.
If this was done and the CAW’s ran then we have been lied to about everything.
