Horse Racing is the greatest skill betting game in the world. There is none better, and certainly none even close to as lucrative. Too many people forget that, or never even realize it. There are far too many players who play to survive, or just to cash a ticket now and then. Some even expect to lose. The game itself, and how it is marketed and viewed by those who don’t really understand it, almost leads you into that complacency.
To be clear, it is a very tough game to beat. As tough as any I know. It can be done though. It takes a lot of work, as much as any full time job. It also takes dedication and ability. The club of those who beat this great game is small. If you truly want to join it, you have to understand some pre requisites. If you don’t, no matter how emphatically you disagree with me, you are not likely to get into the club. I think the club should be the goal of everyone who plays. You should play to win, however those of us that do should also be grateful that there are in fact those who don’t.
Yes there are elements of luck involved. Poker is a skill game with elements of luck. A run of bad cards is tough to overcome at a table with players of equal skill. What makes our game different than the others is value. Mastering the odds. You can’t do that in poker, black jack, or even sports wagering where you are happy to get even money. Sure you can increase your odds of winning with certain plays, but you can’t increase your value.
Yes there are elements of luck involved. Poker is a skill game with elements of luck. A run of bad cards is tough to overcome at a table with players of equal skill. What makes our game different than the others is value.
I’ve written about these things before. It’s usually the same result. I’ll get some insisting I am wrong and don’t know what I am talking about. They are usually the most adamant. I’d wager few if any of them are in the club. Then I will get some examples of winning tickets and bets following the structure advice. There are always many more of them and that’s why we are here. Again my philosophy and techniques are designed for those who play to win and want in the club.
This is a game where we will almost always be wrong more than right. We also have takeout to overcome. Then there are the abundance of sharks in the water all armed with the same information overload we have. Last but not least we have the syndicates with unlimited bankrolls, armed with computers using algorithms to calculate every profitable bet possible right up until post time.
How do we equalize all this and show a profit let alone earn a good living. First you have to learn to go against your nature. It is ok to win less to win more. What I mean is to cash less tickets perhaps, but win more on the ones you do. This goes against our nature to want to cash as many tickets as possible. You have to learn to maximize your profits. Increase that plus column as much as you can. In the end, that’s what counts.
In the past I’ve discussed some bets I think hurt your overall profitability. Hedging for one is generally a big no no if you are playing for keeps. You don’t bet against yourself unless you are alive for a significant amount of money and realistically fear a horse you left out. If you are in that position however, why did you leave out the horse you are now compelled to bet in the first place? I’ve discussed the alternative as in going for the kill. In the long run how does keying your top choice or biggest return in the triple and superfecta sound. Cash less but win more.
We have also explored taking supers and triples as opposed to pick 4’s on certain days. The super can be more lucrative and with the right ticket structuring easier to hit. Today I’ll talk about what I think is another bad bet. The place bet.
I’ve bet to place maybe 5 times in my life if that. Show even less. I’ve never grasped the benefit of either bet. Let’s stick to place today. A lot of people bet win and place. If you are going to bet say $20 to win and place for a total of $40 the $20 in place money isn’t maximizing your return. Remember this is a pre requisite.
My suggestion would be to take that $20 in place money and play 4 or 5 exactas for $4 or $5 apiece with your horse in the second slot. Odds are, no pun intended, this will yield a bigger return than the $20 place bet. If your horse is a nice price, and you happen to catch a nice price, you’ll be glad you didn’t bet place. Yes you run the risk of your horse running second but another key to this game is being right. You have to be right often enough to have that confidence. Also the percentages on the higher returns of exactas should easily offset the ones you miss just going for a place bet.
I’d suggest considering the same approach on the win end but that’s a whole different conversation. It all comes down to why you play and how you keep the win column flush. In the present pari-mutual system this against your nature philosophy is necessary. Once exchange wagering is introduced the landscape is going to change considerably. I for one can’t wait.
The Fourth of July weekend has historically been a great weekend of racing to kick off the summer. This year is no exception. We have Stars and Stripes day at Belmont on Saturday, and Kentuckian in the Los Alamitos Derby. On Sunday we have the Queens Plate at Woodbine, the Summit of Speed at Gulfstream and the United Nations at Monmouth. That’s a lot of opportunity and a lot of reasons not to bet to place. Second place is the first loser.
The Fourth of July weekend has historically been a great weekend of racing to kick off the summer. This year is no exception.
The horse racing community was hit with some devastating news this past Saturday. It was broadcast initially by TVG, and reiterated throughout the day, that Simon Bray, was diagnosed with the rare blood cancer, Multiple Myeloma. This is a treatable but at present incurable form of cancer.
The shock hit me like a left hook I never saw coming. I don’t know Simon. I don’t recall ever having had the pleasure of meeting him. The extent of my contact was tweeting back and forth with him at times. Cancer will do that. It’s a word we never want to hear when talking about someone we care about. We should all do more caring.
Although I do not know Simon, I felt as if I did. I remember when he was Bill Mott’s assistant trainer before going out on his own. I followed his career when he started his own stable, and immediately recognized his ability to train. When he stopped training to join the broadcast and analyst ranks, I watched him often enough to feel as if I knew him. He is an engaging man, and as a gambler I’d wager heavily he has a good heart.
It was encouraging to see the support from his colleagues, especially Paul Lo Duca, and Todd Schrupp, who offered heartfelt support and encouragement in what is a most difficult time for their friend. Our Prayers go out to Simon, his family and friends. We are behind you. Simon has asked donations be made to the Multiple Myeloma Research Foundation (MMRF) to help find a cure for this disease.
High 5
TVG and Betfair, Santa Anita and all others who stepped up in support of Simon Bray.
Low 5
Chris Kay and NYRA. Newsflash. Saratoga is fine. It has been for a long time. It’s part of history. It’s an icon. You don’t buy a vintage red Ferrari and put a 2015 aftermarket spoiler on it. You don’t trash Red Smith’s quote on how to get to Saratoga. Getting closer to the horses and jockeys is a part of the Spa. So is the Big Red Spring. You already killed the racing quality from what it was with the meet extensions now you want to change the whole venue. Ugggggh!
