Confidence Game splashes home a winner in the Rebel (Coady Photography)
By Ross Blacker
Before I get to the Rebel, let’s look at the Honeybee. Say what you want about the quality of the field, the fact that the Oaklawn surface was wet, you won’t find many better rides than the one Flavien Prat gave on Wet Paint. For most of the race, he kept the Cox trainee glued to the rail but then at the top of the stretch strayed a little, and the rally between horses was ultra impressive.
Now, the Beyer came back an 83. Do I think this horse is a serious Oaks contender, not necessarily but beating a big field like that and obviously having zero issues getting the distance makes her one to at least consider. Now, it will be interesting how she moved forward off the race, will definitely have to take a step up next out, most likely in the Fantasy or possibly in New Orleans in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Since it looks like this gal is based in Hot Springs, I’d say she’s destined for the Fantasy.
Condensation for leading Oaklawn Park trainer Chris Hartman ran a strong race as well, giving up the lead late but still managing to hold second at 21/1. Going forward will be interesting to see how this one fares on a dry course, last two efforts, both routing, have been in the mud and slop and those yielded career-best Beyers of 78 and 77.
I must admit, I was one of the many members of the betting public responsible for Confidence Game going off at 18/1 in the Rebel. In retrospect, which is always easier, the horse definitely fit in the race and was a clear underlay: best wet number in the field by 25 points and coming out of a Lecomte which has produced a next-out winner and Two Phil’s who ran big in the Risen Star not to mention Instant Coffee who is very well thought of.
Also, this horse as a 2-year-old beat eventual Holy Bull winner Rocket Can routing at Churchill in his 2-year-old finale.
I really respect the decision by trainer Keith Desormeaux to head to Oaklawn and give this guy a change in venue. Jimmy Graham came along for the ride (or flight) which was extremely encouraging. Always like to see versatility out of a horse and you got that Saturday in Hot Springs. Confidence Game’s previous two wins were done in front-running fashion. In the Rebel, stalked the pace and was able to explode down the lane.
By all indications, it seems as though the connections are between the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbies with this one. It is hard to tell which way Desormeaux is leaning since the horse is based in New Orleans and Fair Grounds did add an extra week between the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. Whether Confidence Game returns to Oaklawn or stays in the Crescent City, he will be on full rest heading into his next start.
Let’s look at a few other horses in the Rebel: Steve Asmussen’s Red Route One who was some 19 lengths behind at one point of the race, finished steadily and strongly to grab second, running a career-best 92. Keep in mind that this horse’s two best career numbers have been in the slop. That is what is going to be hard in forecasting how these horses, especially the winner who had such a crazy-high wet number, will perform on the rest of the trail.
On-site observers and even Oaklawn paddock analyst Nancy Holthus marveled at how big Reincarnate was in the paddock and post parade. Although he didn’t win, ran well in his first time outside of the Golden State, collecting a 90 Beyer. Definitely not on the level of Arabian Knight in the collection of current/former Baffert runners on the trail but a nice horse who could be a factor come the first Saturday in May.
I’d have to say that Cox’s Verifying and Confidence Game, the two post-time favorites did not impress. In fact, both took pretty significant Beyer regressions in the race. Both of them did have some degree of excuses in the race, especially Verifying who encountered a ton of traffic trouble top of the stretch and was forced to check and readjusted paths twice. Giant Mischief’s trouble was much earlier in the race and therefore is less of an excuse next time.
We are late enough on the trail that most of these horses will point to one of the big Derby preps next out as time is steadily winding down to qualify for the Run for the Roses.
One Saudi Thought
Obviously, handicap races are called handicap races for a reason and weight, which I personally don’t pay a ton of attention to, is used to equalize horses. However, in the Red Sea Turf Handicap, I’d love to hear how/why the 1 horse Subjectivist was assigned 137 pounds….that’s right 137 pounds some eight more than the next one.
True, the horse came in on a three-race win streak and boasted impressive results in some of Europe’s biggest races. However, look at the layoff; he hadn’t run since June of 2021. To assign a horse that much weight to me was ludicrous. It didn’t necessarily sway the worldwide pools as many felt even despite the weight, significant layoff, and at least on the DRF past performances had no published works, he was just much the best.
I stayed away from the horse and it turned out to be the right opinion as he faded badly in the stretch to finish 12th out of 13. One could say that running the horse 15 furlongs after that kind of layoff was extreme but this guy’s last two efforts were 2 miles. I personally blame the excessive weight more than anything for the performance.
What Lies Ahead
This coming weekend, there’s a trio of Derby preps, the Gotham in New York, the Fountain of Youth in South Florida, and the San Felipe at the Great Race Place. The horse everyone wants to see is the champion 2-year-old Forte who will tangle with a confirmed field of 10 in the final race of what looks like an awesome Gulfstream Saturday card.
Hejazi, now in the Yakteen barn, among others highlights the San Felipe while Fort Warren, now in the barn of Brittany Russell will attract some attention in the Gotham.
Given weather delays, the Mine that Bird, a prep for the Sunland Derby will be held this week with a field of 9, including three for dominant Southwest conditioner Todd Fincher and one from Steve Asmussen comprising the field.
