Disco Time with jockey Florent Geroux aboard get a head in front of Built to win the 81st running of the Grade III $250,000 Lecomte Stakes. (Hodges Photography / Lou Hodges, Jr.)
James Gazzale
The Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds may only be early January, but it’s one of the first real chances to begin separating three-year-olds who can handle distance, pressure, and adversity from those who can’t. As a Kentucky Derby prep at a mile and a sixteenth, the Lecomte is often less about brilliance and more about how the race unfolds, which makes it a perfect spot to apply Pace Points.
Pace Points ranks each horse’s early and late pace relative to the field, giving handicappers a clearer picture of who is likely to be involved early and who may be running on when it matters most. Instead of guessing at race shape, the goal is to visualize it before the gates open.
Projecting the Early Pace
In this year’s Lecomte, the early Pace Points immediately highlight Crown the Buckeye as the fastest horse out of the gate. That aligns with what we’ve seen in his past performances: he wants to be forward, and he’s comfortable carrying speed around two turns.
The key question, however, isn’t whether Crown the Buckeye is fast enough. It’s how hard he’ll have to work early. Pace Points shows Stop the Car and Chip Honcho close behind in the early rankings, and with the first turn coming up quickly at Fair Grounds, neither of those horses can afford to be floated wide. That suggests early intent, not a casual jog into position.
This is where Pace Points become useful beyond raw speed. If multiple horses are projected to contest the same early lanes, it increases the likelihood that someone will have to spend energy earlier than ideal, which can reshape the race by the time they reach the far turn.
Who Benefits If Things Settle?
If the early trio does hook up, even moderately, the middle portion of the race could slow, setting the table for horses with stronger late Pace Points.
That’s where Golden Tempo stands out. His late pace ranking is among the best in the field, and his recent maiden win showed a runner capable of making a sustained move rather than a short burst. If he stays within touch early, Pace Points suggest he’s one of the more likely runners to still be advancing when others flatten out.
Thunder Buck and Mesquite also appear well in the late rankings, though both may need to take a step forward. At this stage of the three-year-old season, that kind of progression is not only possible, it’s common.
Putting It Together
Using Pace Points, the Lecomte shapes up as a race where early position will matter, but energy distribution may decide the outcome. Crown the Buckeye projects to get a favorable inside trip if he breaks cleanly. Stop the Car looks like the kind of horse who can stay involved throughout. Golden Tempo profiles as the runner who could benefit most if the early pace is even slightly contested.
That doesn’t crown a winner, but it does provide a framework. Pace Points aren’t about telling you who will win. They help clarify how the race is likely to be run, allowing handicappers to make smarter decisions when building win bets, exactas, or multi-race tickets.
The Lecomte is a thinking person’s race. Pace Points help make sure you’re thinking about the right things.
Learn more about Pace Points at PastTheWire.com
Watch the full Lecomte breakdown on Sunday Morning Coffee with Big Race Jim
Use Pace Points every weekend to sharpen your race-shape analysis
