By Jim Gazzale
When it comes to Kentucky Derby betting, there are endless angles to explore. One approach I rely on—especially early in the process—is a simple, effective power rating system. It’s not rocket science, but it gets results.
If you’ve followed me on Past The Wire TV, you already know I’m a Brisnet junkie. I keep my handicapping process streamlined. For this method, I take three key Brisnet figures—E2, LP, and SPD—from each of the two most recent prep races for every contender. Then I just add them up.
That’s it. Six figures total. This gives a snapshot of consistency, overall performance, and even helps spot numbers that might be artificially inflated.
Take Sandman, for example. He clocked an LP of 88 in the Arkansas Derby but posted a 101 SPD. Visually? He was chewing up ground down the lane. But that LP figure is underwhelming for a supposed top-tier Derby hopeful. It makes me question the integrity of that 101 SPD—it might be a touch inflated when viewed in context.
Bottom line: this method offers a basic lens into how each Kentucky Derby contender stacks up—and where there might be more sizzle than steak.
Kentucky Derby Power Ratings (High to Low)
Here’s the full list of horses ranked by total power rating (E2 + LP + SPD from their last two preps):
- Journalism – 628
- Baeza – 609
- Rodriguez – 582
- Sandman – 581
- American Promise – 579
- Citizen Bull – 574
- Tappan Street – 574
- Sovereignty – 572
- Burnham Square – 572
- Chunk of Gold – 568
- Publisher – 567
- Coal Battle – 565
- Tiztastic – 564
- Render Judgement – 560
- Owen Almighty – 556
- Grande – 556
- Neoequos – 554
- Built – 553
- Flying Mohawk – 550
- Madaket Road – 550
- Final Gambit – 532
- East Avenue – 527
No Data Available (N/A)
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