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By Laura Pugh and Ashley Tamulonis
When it comes to Preakness trends, one that is tried and true is that horses exiting the Kentucky Derby have performed much better than new shooters in the Preakness Stakes. The proof is in the numbers: 13 of the last 20 editions of the Preakness Stakes have been won by horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby in their last outing.
The 149th’s Grade 1 Preakness drew nine horses, though only eight will break from the gate due to Muth spiking a fever. Three of the entrants are coming out of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, with the top two being Mystik Dan, the 150th Kentucky Derby winner, and fourth place finisher Catching Freedom.
Both colts have their merits, but Laura Pugh and Ashley Tamulonis are taking opposite stands, with Laura arguing for Catching Freedom and Ashley championing the Kentucky Derby hero Mystik Dan.
| Laura’s Take | Ashley’s Take |
| I thought that Catching Freedom was a play in the Kentucky Derby, and even in defeat, he ran a big race. He started his run fairly early, going from 7 ¾ lengths behind at that half to 1 ¾’s at the mile call. However, he lost some momentum when jostled by Catalytic, and was called as 3 ½ behind at the stretch call. The son of Constitution took a moment to get back into rhythm, but by that point, Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone and Forever Young were in full flight for the wire. Despite that, Catching Freedom kept running, only finishing only 1 ¾ lengths behind Mystik Dan. Some might be put off by another inside draw for Catching Freedom, but all in all, he handled the four post in a 20 horse field very well and used it to his advantage. With only seven others to contend with in the Preakness, I see things going even smoother, especially with Mystik Dan starting in the middle of the field in post position 5. In terms of numbers, Catching Freedom ran a number equal to his Louisiana Derby from a Beyer standpoint, earning a 97 TimeformUS, which includes more data marking the race as an improvement, designating the effort a 116. If you like TimeformUS, you’ll love that this is his third progression in a row, which could indicate another big effort in the Preakness. I think this is the case here, especially since trainer Brad Cox called a small audible, going from 50/50 to all in. I would not think that Cox would enter a horse back so quickly unless he was very impressed by what he was seeing leading up to the Preakness. Cox only participated in the Preakness one year before this, in 2019, and has never done so with a Kentucky Derby runner. I’m taking this as another very positive sign in his confidence in how Catching Freedom is training. So, if I feel this good about Catching Freedom, why am I leery about Mystik Dan? Because 7 of those 13 Derby runners that won the Preakness did not win the Derby. They put in big efforts, but the trip or the pace got them in the Run for the Roses. However, with a more optimal trip in the run for the Black-Eyed Susans, they ran back on top. Mystik Dan has a pattern. You know that thing people warned me that Fierceness had and I didn’t listen? Mystik Dan has that too. He’s never won two in a row, but he has lost two in a row. One of those losses actually came after running back off a big performance in 13 days… a similar turnaround to the Preakness’s 14-day turnaround from the Kentucky Derby. He was going from a 5 ½ furlong maiden to a mile allowance. However, considering he’s been able to stretch out successfully since then, I am inclined to believe the poor performance came from the turnaround. In that instance, Mystik Dan went from a 108 TimeformUS to an 87. That is his lowest career rating. He took a dive on the Beyer scale as well, going from a 96 to a 64. Yes, trainer Kenny McPeak said he wouldn’t enter unless the horse was doing well; however, McPeak also expressed concerns about the turnaround, even bringing up Mystik Dan’s prior attempt at running back in two weeks. This has me thinking that the ownership is pushing for a Preakness run, not that anyone can blame them. Who wouldn’t want a shot at the Triple Crown? Plus, it’s considered extremely sporting to run the Kentucky Derby winner back in the Preakness. I also think that there’s a possibility that Mystik Dan performs markedly better over Churchill Downs. He did run lights out in the Southwest Stakes, however that was over a very sloppy surface, and he did not replicate that in his next outing at Oaklawn, the Arkansas Derby, where he finished third by 6 ¼ lengths to Muth. As much as I’d love to see the fairy tale continue, logic is telling me that Mystik Dan will bounce, while Catching Freedom will soar in the Preakness. So, with that in mind, Catching Freedom will be the Kentucky Derby starter that I play in Preakness 149. | Mystik Dan’s victory in the Kentucky Derby (G1) was breathtaking. In a move that surely made Calvin “Bo-rail” Borel proud, Brian Hernandez, Jr. sent the son of Goldencents through a narrow opening on the rail, bursting to the lead with that bold move. Because he had the ground-saving trip, he was then able to narrowly hold off the hard-charging Sierra Leone and Forever Young (JPN), both of whom were wide off the turn, in what was the most dramatic Derby finish in my lifetime. In winning the Run for the Roses, Mystik Dan earned a career second-best Equibase speed figure of 109, just one point shy of the 110 he received for his Southwest (G3) romp. If you’re more of a Beyer Speed figure person, the colt was assigned a BSF of 100 for the Kentucky Derby and 101 for the Southwest (G3). While it’s true that Mystik Dan has that pair of 5th place finishes in his first two attempts around two turns, it’s obvious that he has improved as he has moved through his 3-year-old season. He has that 8-length score in the Southwest (G3) and a decent 3rd in the Arkansas Derby (G1). He raced outside of rivals that day and was slightly bothered down the backstretch. He then did a good bit of swerving in the stretch after being caught four-wide on the far turn. You can’t do that against horses like Muth and Just Steel and expect to win, but a lesson was clearly learned. I also think “Dan” prefers to run inside of his rivals, and that being parked on the outside during a route race was not to his liking. Returning to speed figures, it’s worth noting that while Mystik Dan did regress slightly in the Arkansas Derby, he has still posted three consecutive triple digit Equibase figures in a row. Going back to the Smarty Jones Stakes, we see an overall progression of 91 to 110 to 106 to 109. The son of Goldencents is the only colt in the field that can claim that feat. Just like Derby weekend, this upcoming weekend in Baltimore is expected to be soggy. There’s a 77% chance of rain on Friday and an 88% chance on Saturday. Mystik Dan’s best two races came on a track that had moisture in it. He romped over a muddy track at Oaklawn in the Southwest, and though the track was officially labeled as “fast” at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, it’s not inconceivable that there was still some moisture there. Despite being triumphant over an off track, Mystik Dan only has a Tomlinson figure of 351, the lowest in the field with the scratch of Muth. Tomlinson numbers are used to predict whether horses will do well over an off track based on the performance of the horse’s sire and broodmare sire’s progeny over the surface. However, it’s clearly not the end all, be all, as Mystik Dan has already outrun his Tomlinson rating. Conversely, Catching Freedom has the second lowest Tomlinson rating in the field with a 378 and is 1: 0-0-1 over a wet track. So, an off-track on Saturday increases Mystik Dan’s chances of winning. Running style is also key here. Mystik Dan has tactical speed, while Catching Freedom is a one sustained run type. With the scratch of Muth, there is very little speed in this field. Imagination is the one most likely to go for the lead in typical Bob Baffert fashion. Mystik Dan typically sits within about a length of the lead, meaning that when they hit the stretch, he’s going to have the advantage of the late running Catching Freedom. He also is not scared to run inside his rivals while Catching Freedom is likely to be spun wide off the far turn. Catching Freedom did follow Mystik Dan up the rail in the Kentucky Derby, but he could not make up ground on the winner despite having the entire length of the stretch to do so. Furthermore, he was outkicked by Sierra Leone and Forever Young (JPN) who both had the disadvantage of being caught extremely wide and then playing bumper cars to the wire. The last time Mystik Dan ran on a short turnaround was when he made his third career start just two weeks after his second career race. Attempting that turnaround as a juvenile and then again as a more seasoned 3-year-old are two different things altogether. McPeek, despite tradition and pressure, likely would not enter Mystik Dan in this spot if he didn’t think he was capable. And, let’s face it, this is an overall less talented field than he saw at Churchill Downs. With his running style and affinity for mud, Mystik Dan is my must play Derby starter for the 149th Preakness Stakes. |
Laura expects Mystik Dan to bounce off his huge Kentucky Derby effort while Catching Freedom progresses. Ashley, on the other hand, sees steady overall progression in the Kentucky Derby winner and believes he’s capable of handling the rigorous 2-week turnaround. It should be an exciting 149th Preakness Stakes.
Photo: Catching Freedom trains for the Kentucky Derby, Coady Photography
